Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251448
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT DATA AS WELL AS TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.  IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY FROM LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO RUN FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWFA...BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH TO
EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
TODAY...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING WL CONTINUE BRINGING MSTR AND SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WED MORNING SHOULD
JUST BE VERY LIGHT.  BY WED AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MSTR
DECREASING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE SNOW ENDING. HOWEVER THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR AREAS WL LEAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THU OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S BUT AT THIS TIME WL NOT GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.  A FLAT
UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA FRI.  HIGH LEVEL MSTR IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING
SOME.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS COULD GENERALLY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WL
CONTINUE FOR SAT AND SUN OVR CO...WHILE AN UPR TROF KEEPS THE
WEATHER ACTIVE OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES.  ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SAT...BUT A WEAK WX
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACRS THE STATE SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT BACKING
INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER WX. ON MON AN UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SWRLY.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MONDAY WITH AROUND
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS WHICH ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY OVER THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$


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