Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Still seeing some weak echoes acrs some of wrn CO early this
morning, so wl keep some isold pops in the morning forecast for the
Continental Divide.  Today the upper level ridge wl become centered
ovr the Great Basin and wl remain in that location thru tonight. The
NAM shows a weak upr disturbance moving southeastward acrs CO today
and into the evening. The HRRR and NAM are showing showers/tstms
over most of the mountain areas by noon. The NAM and HRRR then show
convection spreading eastward and out over the I-25 corridor in the
afternoon, and then acrs the rest of the sern plains into the
evening hours as the upr dustpans moves ovr sern CO. The GFS
keeps the far sern plains dry. By late tonight, most if not all
the showers and storms should end, although there could be just a
few lingering showers. The main threats with storms today wl be
strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. The flow aloft wl
generally be weak and storms should be slow moving. The slow
movement and potential for heavy rain wl result in a possible
flash flood threat, especially if these storms sit ovr urban areas
or burn scars. The NAM shows 2000+ J/kg of CAPE ovr the far sern
plains this evening although bulk shear is weak, around 20 kts. If
storms do move over the far sern plains this evening, there could
be the potential for some large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Wednesday-Friday...Generally weak north to northwest flow progged
across the region with the upper high remaining south and west of
the state across the Desert SW and southern Great Basin, as occasional
short waves translate across the faster zonal flow across the Pac
NW and Northern Tier. The position of the high and northerly flow
aloft helps to dry out the atmosphere across the higher terrain,
though there looks to be enough residual moisture to keep isolated
diurnal storms in place across southwest and south central Colorado
through the period, though convection to be more high based producing
more wind than rain. Further east, short waves digging down the
backside of the high within the north to northwest flow to keep
chances of deep moist convection and severe storms in place through
the period, with the best chances of severe storms across the far
se plains both Wednesday and Thursday. NAM is the furthest west
with a MCS moving across NW Kansas and the far se plains Wednesday
night with outflow keeping low level moisture in place across the
plains Thursday. Models indicate a similar set up across the eastern
plains Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures through
the end of the work week look to be at and above seasonal averages.

Saturday-Monday...Latest models continue to indicate an upper trough
developing across the Pac NW which digs into the Great Basin into
early next week. This will allow for weak south to southwest flow
aloft to develop as the upper high is pushed to the East of the
state, opening the door to increasing monsoonal moisture once again.
With that said, should see increasing chances of daily showers and
storms, as well as wetting rains, over and near the higher terrain
through the period. With the increased convective activity,
temperatures to be around seasonal averages into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Little change in the weather pattern today, with sct tsra over the
mountains early this afternoon drifting slowly eastward toward all
taf sites after 20z-21z. Chance of storms persists through 00z-01z
before activity weakens and shifts toward the KS border. Heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds the main storm threats, with some
brief MVFR vis under the strongest storms. VFR all areas overnight
into Wed morning, with only some very isolated mtn convection
expected Wed afternoon.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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