Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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473
FXUS65 KPUB 191750
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating mid
and upper level moisture increasing within modest southwest flow
aloft across the region. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a
minor wave embedded within the flow moving across the southern Great
Basin, with satellite data indicating enhanced clouds, along with 1
cloud to ground lightning strike, associated with this system early
this morning.

Today and Tonight...Southwest flow aloft slowly increases through
tonight, as minor embedded disturbance continues to translate across
the Rockies.  There is enough moisture to support isolated showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly
across the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd. Storms to
be high based, supporting locally gusty winds and only light
precipitation, with any snow confined to the highest peaks. Further
east, southwest flow to support lee troughing across the plains,
with breezy southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph expected in the
afternoon across the far southeast plains. Highs to be at to
slightly cooler than yesterday`s readings, though still above
seasonal levels mainly in the 70s to around 80 across the lower
elevations and 50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Lows to be
mainly in the 30s to lower 40s across the area tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Overall active pattern but not much moisture to work with...

Pattern next several days will be rather active as several short
waves will move through the region bringing cooler weather to the
region, however these systems will mot have much moisture to work
with, and limited sensible weather will be realized.

The first wave will be moving across the region at the beginning of
this time period (Fri morning). This system will have the potential
to bring some light snow showers to the contdvd region during the
day. No significant accums are anticipated. A rumble of thunder
may also occur during the afternoon. Max temps on Friday will be
unseasonably warm with highs in teh 80-85F range across most of
the lower elevations with 60s in the valleys. This will likely be
the warmest day of the period. Near critical fire weather
conditions may occur along the I-25 corridor, generally south of
Pueblo to the NM border as it will be breezy with RH values aoa
20%. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the remainder of
the region Friday afternoon. The strongest winds will occur across
the Sangres.

A more significant wave will affect the region Friday night into
Saturday. This system will bring the best chance of precip to parts
of the region, especially the central mountains north of
Cottonwood Pass. Several inches of snow will be possible across
this region. The heaviest snow will fall Fri nite/early Sat
morning. The main sensible weather change with this 2nd wave will
be much cooler weather region-wide Saturday as a cold front will
move across the region Saturday morning. Highs will fall into the
60s. Precip on Saturday is expected to be limited, with mainly
showers and some rumbles of thunder across the higher terrain.

Through the remainder of the period we expect dry weather. Another
cool front will likely move across the region during the afternoon
Monday, bringing cooler air to the region on Tuesday. Another front
will move across the region Wed afternoon. Max temps during this
period will fluctuate between the 60s and 70s across the plains,
with 50s and 60s in the valleys. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A weak upper level disturbance will track northeast across the
flight area tonight through Friday morning.  The disturbance
will bring mid and high clouds to the area but very little low
level moisture. There could be a few spotty showers over the
mountains this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, dry weather
is expected.  On Friday, as the system departs to the east, dry
westerly flow will spread eastward across the flight area with
gusty southwest winds developing at the surface. Conditions
will generally be VFR across the flight area next 24 hours.
However, local MVFR to LIFR conditions could occur with any
showers over the mountains this afternoon and tonight. VFR
expected at the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



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