Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
414 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MINERAL COUNTY BURN
SCARS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS BIG UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA. A BAND OF RAIN EXTENDED
N-S FROM IDAHO SSE`WD INTO NW NEW MEXICO...AND INTO E ARIZ. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD IN OUR CWA. DWPTS WERE
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE L50S WERE NOTED.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MINERAL COUNTY BURN
SCARS. HI RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN BETWEEN 5 AM THIS MORNING AND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AS LEAD SHORT WAVE ADVECTS OVER THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE BURN SCARS HAVE HAD RAIN SAT EVENING...THERE
IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL THAT WE MAY SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MINERAL COUNTY BURN SCARS.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE
MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...MOISTURE IS MOVING EAST AS THE LOW
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE PIKES PEAK AND S MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY WILL BE THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE VALLEY FLOOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ADJACENT
TO THE S MTNS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER COULD AFFECT
THE WALDO BURN SCAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE...SHOULD BE DRY TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80-85F RANGE. IT WILL BE BREEZY OVER
THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH G35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS. RH VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH SO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE
LOW.

TONIGHT...

ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW WILL BE NUDGING EASTWARD...WE WILL BE BETWEEN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...AND THUS EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS. CANT RULE A LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER...BUT
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE MTNS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS WHICH
GIVES HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY..THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILT AND TRACK ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH MODELS BRINGING 55 TO 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH 800 TO 1200 J/KG
CAPE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ADEQUATE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH 40 TO 50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE...AND IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCE...IS TIMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE MOVING EAST INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY 21Z/MON AND MOVE IT EAST THROUGH 03Z/TUES. THE LATEST
NAM HAS CONTINUED TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH A WEAKER
DRYLINE SETTING UP AFTER 03/TUES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE SREF IS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE NAM. FOR NOW HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF AS FAR AS TIMING. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE...GENERALLY
EAST OF A FORDER TO TRINIDAD LINE...BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...AND
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE
PARAMETERS...HAIL WITH DIAMETER GREATER THAN ONE INCH AND WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION TAKES SHAPE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LIMITED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER AND QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS.  AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...AND DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AT
LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS LIKELY
SEEING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 11 KFT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE
PLAINS WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
80S. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KALS...ESPECIALLY TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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