Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Early morning convection just about out of the area as of 10z, and
will carry a dry forecast for the morning as any precip should be
east into KS by sunrise. Water vapor imagery suggests upper
circulation, which has brought thunderstorms to the eastern plains
the past several days, was finally shifting eastward into KS, with
subsidence behind this feature leading to a mainly dry and hotter
day for the plains east of I-25. Over the mountains, rather modest
monsoon plume remains in place, so expect usual isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening tsra over mainly the higher terrain,
though coverage and storm intensity should be on a downward
trajectory versus yesterday. NAM and HRRR suggest some isolated weak
storms may drift into the I-25 corridor in the late afternoon/early
evening, especially across El Paso county, though coverage/strength
will be rather sparse/weak here as well. Max temps will begin to
climb back to rather warm readings at most locations as mid level
heights/temps rise and moisture thins out, with readings at or
slightly above seasonal averages by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

No big changes to the current extended forecast package, as models
continue to indicate upper level high pressure building east across
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This allows for the monsoonal
moisture plume to be shunted south and west of the area with some
drier air workomg into the region. Warm air and subsidence under the
high will lead to lesser chances of convection over the southeast
plains, with enough residual moisture across the western half of the
area, to work with strong solar heating to support daily chances of
afternoon and evening showers and storms. Weak flow aloft will allow
for the storms to move slowly, bringing the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, and the possibility of flash flooding, mainly across
area burn scars. Warm air aloft will allow surface temperatures to
warm to at and above seasonal averages, though latest GFS MOS may be
a tad too warm across the eastern plains.

For Thursday through Saturday, the upper high repositions across the
southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley, which will allow for
increasing monsoonal moisture within developing southwesterly flow
aloft. With that said, should see increasing chances and coverage of
afternoon and evening storms into the upcoming weekend. Lastest
models also indicate a possible front sliding across the eastern
plains on Saturday, leading to increasing low level moisture and the
potential for stronger storms across the eastern plains. There looks
to be a the daily risk of flash flooding through this period,
especially across urban areas and burn scars, with temperatures
cooling back to at or slightly below seasonal levels through the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

At KALS...VFR the next 24 hrs. Will carry a VCTS mention for a brief
period late this afternoon and early this evening as isolated tsra
which form over the mountains drift across the San Luis Valley.

At KCOS...MVFR stratus deck has formed along and south of the Palmer
Divide this morning, with pockets of IFR cigs/vis in fog just east
of the terminal. Satellite trends and mesoscale model output suggest
lower clouds to persist until 12z-15z period, before dissipating as
weak nly wind develops. Once clouds clear, expect VFR conditions for
the remainder of the day and tonight, with a brief window for vcts
from around 22z until 02z as isolated -tsra drift away from the
higher terrain.

At KPUB...stratus has stayed north of the terminal so far this
morning, though srn edge of cloud deck is only about 15nm north of
the airport as of 10z. Won`t include low clouds in the taf at this
point, but will monitor latest satellite trends for possible brief
period of MVFR cigs 12z-15z. Expect VFR conditions for today and
tonight, with very low chance for a -tsra from 22z until 02z, though
expect most activity to stay farther west near the mountains into
the evening.




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