Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270944
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WARMING CONTINUES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE  NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF THAT
MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRALMTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE
SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING.  WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WL
KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN.  A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA EARLY
TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE HYR TRRN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACRS THE
PLAINS.  WED AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS
COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS.  ON THU THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH
SPREADS PCPN ACRS MAINLY THE HYR TRRN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW CU BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW


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