Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 120035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
535 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Issued at 535 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Updated sky cover across the far southeast plains with GOES16
imagery indicating stratus pushing across eastern Kiowa and
Prowers counties at this time. Higher res models suggesting
easterly upslope flow will help push stratus up the lower Arkansas
River Valley through the evening hours, with areas of fog
developing overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

...Warmer and Drier Across the Plains Today...

The bulk of the low level moisture that has been entrenched over the
lower Arkansas River Plains for the past few days has mostly moved
east into Kansas today.  However, there are still some low clouds
skirting the eastern Colorado border, across eastern Kiowa County.
Tonight, high res models show light, easterly winds returning to
portions of plains.  This could result in redevelopment of low
clouds and fog in a few areas east of Pueblo overnight, particularly
along and near the Kansas border.  Areas along and west of the I-25
corridor will probably remain in the clear. On Sunday, a weak cold
front will drop south through the plains and back up to the
mountains during the afternoon.  No precipitation and few clouds
with the front, so mainly just cooler temperatures and southeasterly
breezes across the plains Sunday afternoon.  Afternoon highs should
end up about 10 degrees below today`s values across the plains and
about the same as today`s values elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

A mainly dry westerly flow pattern looks to be in the offing through
at least the middle of next week, with several embedded short waves
expected to translate through the moderate westerly flow aloft
across the Northern Tier and Rockies.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Cool upslope flow persists across the plains
Sunday night, though will see some warming over and near the higher
terrain through the overnight, ahead of next embedded system moving
onshore across the Pac Northwest Coast. Said system continues across
the Northern Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies Monday night,
bringing dry, warm and breezy conditions to south central and
southeast Colorado through the day Tuesday. Pattern suggests
enhanced fire danger across the area, especially across the eastern
plains on Tuesday, and will have to continue to monitor forecast
trends for possible fire weather issues. Temperatures are expected
to warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs in the 60s and 70s
across the plains, warmest on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to to
lower 60s across the higher terrain and mainly in the 30s at the

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Passing wave across the Northern Rockies
sends a dry, backdoor cold front across Eastern Colorado late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with cool upslope flow developing
through early Wednesday morning.  This will keep highs some 10 to 15
degrees cooler across the plains on Wednesday, with only slightly
cooler conditions expected across the higher terrain.

Wednesday night-Saturday...Some model differences in timing and
strength of next embedded wave moving across the region for the
later part of the week, with GFS faster, weak and a tad further
north with said wave, where as the EC is a tad slower, stronger and
further south. At any rate, both solutions suggest breezy to windy
conditions across the higher terrain Thursday and Friday, with some
light snow showers possible across the Continental Dvd Thursday
through early Friday. The further south EC solution is printing out
some light QPF across the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region early
Friday as well, with a stronger associated cold front pushing across
the plains. Drier conditions with a warming trend is then expected
into next weekend, as upper level ridging builds across the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 306 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Low clouds are almost entirely out of flight area at this time, just
lingering over portions of far northeastern Kiowa County. Dry
westerly flow spread across the flight area today with low clouds
retreating east into Kansas. Tonight, light easterly flow will
return to the plains east of Pueblo, bringing the return of some low
clouds and fog to portions of the lower Arkansas River plains.
However, coverage looks much more patchy than previous nights so not
all areas will be impacted. Sunday, a weak front will drop south
through the plains and back up to the mountains. No precipitation
and few clouds with the front, mainly just a shift to low level
southeasterly winds across the plains Sunday afternoon. The KCOS,
KPUB and KALS terminals should all remain VFR next 24 hours.
However, KPUB may be just on the edge of some shallow low clouds or
ground fog for a brief period early Sunday morning.




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