Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

An upper level ridge will be over the area tonight and Saturday,
keeping the weather dry and warm.  A weak disturbance will move
across the state on Sat and could bring an increase in winds over
and near the mountains and portions of the I-25 corridor. The could
be some spotty areas of near critical fire weather conditions in the
afternoon as a result of some gusty winds and low RH values. High
temps on Sat are expected to be 15 degrees or more above average
across the southeast plains, and around 10 degrees above average in
the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period with warm conditions expected to continue along with a
disturbance passing across the area by Tuesday.

Saturday night through Monday...high pressure will build across
Colorado and shift east into the Central Plains through the
weekend with broad southwesterly flow moving into Colorado by
Monday. Dry conditions will prevail over the plains through
Monday, while a few isolated to scattered showers develop over the
Continental Divide on monday. Afternoon highs will remain warm
with mid 70s to lower 80s across the plains. upper level disturbance is forecast to move across
the region on Tuesday. A cold front will drop south across the
plains on Tuesday morning bringing slightly cooler air with it.
Highs Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 70s across the plains.
Generally scattered showers will prevail along the Continental
Divide Monday night and through Tuesday before dissipating Tuesday
night. Models do spread some of this shower activity into the
Eastern Mountains and Palmer Divide on Tuesday. Snow levels are
expected to remain high, with an inch or two possible on peaks
above 12 kft.

Wednesday through Friday...high pressure is forecast to rebuild
over Colorado for the later half of the work week. This will once
again bring dry conditions to souther Colorado. Temperatures will
also remain mild with mid to upper 70s across the region. Models
suggests weak energy may move into Colorado by Friday with
isolated showers possible along the Continental Divide.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions expected at COS...PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Could see breezy west to southwest winds 10-15 kts through
the afternoon hours at all 3 taf sites.




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