Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 112145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...Scattered Storms I-25 Corridor Westward with more Isolated
Activity East...

Water vapor pictures show monsoon moisture creeping northward into
forecast area this afternoon, with Total Precipitable Water values
gradually increasing from the southwest.  This will keep scattered
showers and thunderstorms going over the mountains and high valleys,
from the I25 corridor westward, into the early evening hours.  East
of the corridor, storms will have a hard time maintaining their
strength as they encounter stable air left behind by yesterday`s
storms.  As a general rule, this should result in much more isolated
and less intense activity east of the corridor than we saw
yesterday.  However, models are showing a disturbance tracking along
the New Mexico border this evening which could result in widespread,
stronger convection over the southern border areas into the evening.
This may be the area to watch for potential problems, flash flooding
or otherwise, this evening.  The primary threats from most storms
for the remainder of the day into the evening will be locally heavy
rain, wind gusts to around 50 mph, pea size hail and lightning.
However, a few of the stronger storms could produce hail nearing an
inch in diameter and wind gusts nearing 60 mph.  Additionally, burn
scars and urban locations will have to be watched for flash flood
potential this evening, as well as areas along the southern Colorado
border.  Tomorrow looks drier overall with fewer storms expected.
The way it looks right now, storm coverage could be isolated and
confined mainly to the areas in and near the mountains.  Any storms
that do form will still pose the usual threats including locally
heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning.  And, if a storm happens to
cross a burn scar, flash flooding will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Primary meteorological concerns during the longer term continue to
include pops, temperatures, heavy rain/localized flash flood
potential as well as intense storm potential at times, primarily
into early next week with drier and warmer conditions still
anticipated by later next week.

Recent longer range computer simulations, forecast model
soundings and PV analysis continue with a relatively moist
airmass into early next week with drying and warming then
projected from mid to late week.

Enough atmospheric moisture will be available to allow generally
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority
of the forecast district into Tuesday, with basically isolated
pops from Wednesday into Friday.

Some of the stronger storms will still be intense at times and
also be capable of generating heavy rain and localized flash
flooding concerns. As is typical for this time of year, WFO Pueblo
will issue hydro/severe weather products as required.

Low grade gradient winds and minimal fire weather concerns are
also anticipated during the longer term while maximum
temperatures are projected to run near to slightly below
mid-August climatological averages into Monday, with maximum
temperatures then running near to above mid-August climatological
averages from Tuesday into next Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Less activity across the plains than yesterday but more activity
over the mountains and valleys. Scattered storms will continue from
the I25 corridor westward this evening.  Much more isolated activity
is expected over the plains east of the corridor as storms have
trouble working into more stable air. Primary storm threats for most
storms will include locally heavy rain, wind gusts to around 50 mph,
pea size hail and lightning. However, a few of the stronger storms
could produce hail approaching an inch in diameter and wind gusts
nearing 60 mph. This evening, activity will try to spread east
across the plains, gradually shifting southward with time, with the
focus eventually ending up mainly along the southern border areas
through the evening. Pilots attempting to navigate through areas of
precipitation can expect to encounter anything from MVFR to LIFR
CIGS and VSBYS. The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals will all be
subject to thunderstorms this evening and the general conditions
described above.





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