Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211710
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1010 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

...Winter Storm will move over region today into this evening...

Currently...

Over the CWA...A band of snow has moved across the mtns and moved
onto the plain prior to 3 am. Most of the precip dissipated as it
moved onto the plains although echoes were still noted at 3 am over
El Paso county. Farther north, a heavy band of snow was noted over
the greater I-25 corridor in northeast CO, along with increasing
echoes over west central CO.

Over the plains, quite a bit of low clouds were already over the
region. Temps were relatively mild, with most readings in the upper
20s to lower 30s across the plains and valleys. Mountains were also
relatively warm with readings in the teens.

Northeast winds were dominant over the lower elevations although
speeds were still relatively light. Gusty southwest winds were noted
over the san juans.

Today...

Not much change was made to the ongoing forecast. Previous
highlights are still in place and no changes were made to the
highlights. Given guidance is showing more snow for the north facing
slope of the Raton Mesa, I have bumped snowfall amounts up across
the greater eastern Las Animas county region, and these areas may
see up to 4" of wind driven snow.

As for blizzard conditions, I do not think true blizzard conditions
will  occur across the region today. Areas which may see near blizzard
conditions will be far northeast El Paso county and possibly parts
of Kiowa county. Although the winds will reach blizzard criteria, I
dont know if we will see the restrictions to visibility being
reached over 3 hours (Downslope flow off the Palmer divide will
likely diminish snowfall intensity). Nonetheless, travel across the
region today will be tough, especially areas north of US-50. I
should note that weather offices north of me have issued blizzard
warnings adjacent to my northern counties.

I should also note that we may see quite a large range of snowfall
amounts across Baca county with this storm. Western and northwestern
Baca county may see up to 4 inches of snow while southeast Baca
county may see no snowfall at all.

As for timing...I -25 corridor should see most of the snow this
morning with snowfall decreasing by early afternoon. The exception
to this will be northern El Paso where snow may go all day. Heavier
snow will then move east with the brunt of the snow falling across
the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon into early this
evening. It is going to get windy everywhere today on the lower
elevations, with the strongest winds this afternoon.

Temps this afternoon are not going to be all below seasonable
values, but should reach into the upper 20s to lower 30s across all
of the plains. Wind chill values will obviously be quite cold, with
readings in the teens.

Tonight...

Most of the activity will be over the far eastern plains by this
evening with some snow still lingering over the southern mtns. Most,
if not all, of the activity will be out of the region by midnight.
It will still be quite windy over teh far eastern plains this
evening.

Min temps tonight will drop down into the single digits (with some
negative single digits) across the valleys, teens I-25 corridor and
20s far eastern plains. ALthough there will be fresh snow cover over
the plains, the winds should keep the temps up (relatively speaking)
later tonight. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Decent agreement continues for the extended period with low
ensemble spreads and minor operational differences. This keeps the
forecast confidence high with the overall pattern evolution with
the main differences in the finer details.

Monday...the upper level low pressure center will continue to lift
northeast away from Colorado with broad northwest flow across the
area. The only area seeing snowfall looks to be light shower
activity over the Central Mountains through the day, which will
dissipate during the evening hours. Temperatures will be cool with
40s for highs across the lower elevations.

Tuesday through Thursday...slow moving high pressure will track
east across Colorado during the middle of the week. Expect dry
conditions across the area through the period. A weak disturbance
to the north on Tuesday will send a cold front south across the
Plains with continued cool temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the
40s. By Wednesday, the upper ridge axis will be overhead with
temperatures warming into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The next
upper level storm system will begin to approach the area on
Thursday turning flow aloft southwesterly. Increased mixing will
keep temperatures warm Thursday afternoon, with breezy conditions
developing and elevated fire weather concerns.

Friday through Saturday...models in good agreement with a broad
upper trough moving across Colorado heading into the weekend.
Expect snow to move into the Continental Divide Thursday night and
persist into Saturday. Given the broadness of the trough and
northerly storm track, snow chances for the Plains appear to be
limited at this time. Southwesterly flow and mixing will lead to
elevated fire weather concerns again on Friday. A cold front will
bring cooler conditions on Saturday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 942 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

A winter storm continues to bring MVFR and IFR conditions to the
forecasting points. As the surface low develops, strong northerly
winds will develop.

ALS: MVFR conditions to start off the forecast period, but as the
strong northerly winds move over the forecast point, visibilities
will increase and snow chances diminish. VFR conditions will return
in the afternoon hours.

KCOS: Light snow, low cloud ceilings, and reduced visibilities
continue to affect KCOS, but when downslope north winds off of the
Palmer Divide strengthen, the snow will dissipate over the forecast
point, remaining north, hence the VCSH. Cloud ceilings will remain
MVFR throughout the rest of the day, clearing overnight. VFR
conditions expected around midnight.

KPUB: Conditions are already starting to improve at KPUB, with
visibilities slowly increasing as the northerly winds strengthen.
Low cloud ceilings will remain through the late evening hours, when
the skies begin to clear. VFR conditions expected to return in the
early afternoon hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ095>099.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ062>064-066-068-076>078-083-085>089-093-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ058>061-072>075-079>082.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SKELLY


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