Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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657 FXUS65 KPUB 261754 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1154 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a brief lull this morning, moderate to heavy snow will spread across the higher terrain today. Impacts from wet, heavy snow will be possible over the mountains and in Teller County. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the eastern plains. - Snow will continue to increase over the higher terrain tomorrow through Sunday. Highest amounts are expected over the eastern San Juan Mountains, Sawatch Range, and Pike`s peak Region. - Showers and thunderstorms will move out over the plains tomorrow, some periods of heavy rain will be possible along portions of the I-25 corridor, especially in El Paso County. - Another storm later in the week could bring a quick shot of precipitation to portions of the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Models are trending colder with temperatures across Teller county and the upper Arkansas River Valley which has bumped up snowfall amounts. Have upgraded Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings for those areas and rimmed some of the lower elevations of the Upper Arkansas River Valley with Winter Weather Advisories. These go into effect late this afternoon along the Continental Divide, through this evening for eastern portions of these areas and will continue through 6 AM Sunday. Heavy wet snowfall accumulations will be possible above 8500 feet, especially north of highway 50 including the Teller County region where accumulations in excess of a foot will be possible. There will be some melt off as snowfall rates lessen at times across the lower elevations with a tight gradient in snowfall amounts below 8000 feet, but the heavy snowfall rates could cause higher impacts with visibility restrictions and broken tree limbs for trees which have started leafing out. Also put out a Fire Weather Watch for Baca county Saturday afternoon and evening to the south of the surface low where dew points drop into the lower 20s in the afternoon. This will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with the afternoon package issuance. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 438 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The first half of Friday will be somewhat calm, with a lull in precipitation as the upper low quickly moves off to the northeast. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday, with 70s across most of the plains and low-mid 60s over the valleys and the Palmer Divide. Later on in the day, another upper low will begin to move into our area from the west, bringing with it more active weather and more cool air. The limited snow showers across the mountains that waned Friday morning will increase in coverage and intensity by late afternoon before starting to spread eastwards. A surge of north-northwesterly winds will hit our area around late afternoon as well, allowing for better upslope into parts of Teller and El Paso Counties. Mixed rain and snow showers will quickly spread to these areas while rain showers fall further to the south and east where temperatures are far warmer. While the area will generally remain above freezing today, the convective nature of these showers along with cold air advection should still allow for snow accumulation over the higher terrain. Teller County could specifically be seeing some impacts due to heavy, wet snowfall, especially around the northern parts of the county and Pikes Peak. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible across most of our eastern plains, though nothing severe is expected at this time. The snowfall over the mountains and Teller County specifically will increase in intensity overnight, with impactful accumulations already expected prior to Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 438 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Saturday through Sunday... A potent major shortwave trough will move over the region, with increasing snow across the higher terrain and rain, possibly heavy at times, for the lower elevations. Given the orientation of this wave, most of the heavier amounts of snow will be confined to the northern mountains and across the eastern San Juan Mountains. There could also be some thunder possible, along with very strong winds and heavy and wet, blowing snow, especially for the western facing slopes. This could also make travel very tricky for the Cottonwood and Monarch passes by later in the evening on Saturday as the intensity of snowfall rates increases. There will also be some of these showers moving out into the lower elevations, but likely be in the form of rain for elevations less than 7500 feet. As the surface low ejects out over the plains and establishes itself over northeastern Colorado, it will begin to wrap up and allow for a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) to set up along the mountains/plains interface of the front range. This will provide heavy amounts of rain possible along portions of the I-25 corridor, mainly north of the US-50, over El Paso County. Model guidance shows that most of the southeastern plains will be "dry-slotted" initially and then the northeastern progression of the low will likely keep these areas dry as the downsloping winds on the backside of the low take over going into the early morning hours on Sunday. That being said, there could still be a few showers over Baca County, but the heavier amounts area going to the north and west. Because of the heavy amounts of precip anticipated within the TROWAL setup, it cannot be ruled out to see some localized flooding possible for the urbanized areas in El Paso County, especially within the city limits of Colorado Springs. There will also be a convective element, with CAPE of near 1000 J/kg showing up over the Palmer Divide by later in the afternoon on Saturday, which may help to also produce very heavy amounts of rainfall for the lower elevations and possibly a heavy and wet accumulation for the higher elevations of the Pike`s Peak/Rampart Range, as well as Teller County. Due to some uncertainty still as to exactly where this low will track, these areas have been kept in a Winter Storm Watch at this time. Which may need to be upgraded if there is more of a signal that show heavier convective cells developing over these areas in the higher res rapid refresh models. There is also going to be steeper lapse rates of 8 to 9C/1km, which could also help to expedite this process. Colder air advection, along with the cloud cover will help to cool temperatures off some 15 to 20 degrees. The low does look to increase in speed towards the northeast as it undergoes weakening, and all moisture will continue to dissipate temporarily by later in the day on Sunday. However, westerly flow on the backside of the low in combination with some instability induced by orographic lifting, will help top re- trigger thunderstorm development over the mountains, with another round of heavy snow possible, and then the mid-level flow will help to push these out over the plains going into the evening. Monday through Thursday... High pressure conditions will subsequently build back in behind the exiting trough, with drier and warmer conditions returning on Monday, especially over the plains due to the downsloping winds. There will be a warming trend continuing through the mid part of the week. These will be a weaker wave transitioning through which could allow for another chance of some precip, mainly over the northern half of the CWA on Wednesday with a cold front moving through that will cool high temperatures for Thursday. Otherwise, conditions will remain mostly dry going later part of next week. -Stewey && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Cigs will lower this evening as showers move in across the mountains and spread into the adjacent plains overnight through Saturday morning. TSRA will be possible at KCOS after 09z and even some small hail will be possible along with MVFR to brief IFR cigs/vis. SHRA will continue through much of the day at KCOS before decreasing as winds shift out of the north and become gusty in the afternoon. KPUB will remain VFR with -SHRA possible late tonight through Saturday morning. Another round will spread in Saturday afternoon and evening which could bring some brief MVFR cigs at times. KALS will see the best chance for -SHRA between 06z and 12z but is more likely to see VFR cigs. Winds will increase at KALS on Saturday with southerly winds gusting up to 30 kts. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061-063. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ066-068-073. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ076. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ081. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ082. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ237. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO/KT