Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017


At 3 am, few showers were noted over the southern tier of the cwa
mainly extending from KTAD west to across the s parts of the San
Juans. Over the remainder of the region it was likely dry. Some
patchy low clouds were noted over a few parts of the region, mainly
east and northeast of Pueblo and down across eastern Las Animas
counties. These low clouds were associated with an outflow boundary
from much earlier convection. A band of cirrus was noted over the
southern half of the cwa.


A more typical August day weather-wise is expected across the area
today. Storms will be scattered in the mountains and isolated on the
plains by mid to late afternoon. No severe convection is anticipated
at this time, as storms will be more "garden variety" due to lack of
forcing, CAPE and shear. Isolated storms will likely begin over the
plains by as early as 2 pm, with the development likely tied to the
remnant outflow boundary moving across the plains at 3 am. Storms
over the mtns will likely be most numerous over the mtns/plains
interface as somewhat drier air is noted over the interior mtns.
Areas west of KTAD and the Pikes Peak region will likely see the
overall best chance of precip today.


Some isolated pops will linger across all of the region this evening
as guidance indicates a few showers/storms possibly lasting along
the i-25 corridor into the early morning hours. Otherwise skies will
be mostly clear.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.Tuesday...Disturbance will move across eastern Colorado during
the day with a lee trough developing over the plains. Main
challenge will be timing of the system and location of the lee
trough during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the lee trough,
CAPEs will be over 1500 J/kg with sufficient shear for severe
weather. SPC day 2 outlook has the slight risk over the extreme
eastern portions of Kiowa and Prowers Counties with the marginal
risk extending as far west as La Junta. Current model solutions
has the higher instability mostly in Kansas, agreeing with the
SPC day 2 outlook. Still anticipating some diurnal convection over
the mountains and I25 corridor, but CAPEs will be modest.

.Wednesday...Another trough passes over the state during the day.
Timing of the trough is one factor for the development of
convection. The GFS and EC have the trough passing over the
region during the morning hours, which would put Colorado in
general subsidence during the afternoon. The subsidence could help
cap the lower layers hampering thunderstorm development. In
addition, models are not too excited about advecting moisture
westward over the plains during the day. Like superblend PoPs with
generally isolated to lower scattered PoPs. Drier mid level air
will also limit convection over the Continental divide region.

.Thursday through Sunday...Trough gradually develops over the
Pacific northwest with the upper ridge gradually transitioning to
over Colorado. During this transition, the timing and strength of
features will be tough to determine. General trend is to have
upslope flow on the plains Thursday with northwest flow aloft and
embedded disturbances. Will have to watch for possibility of
stronger storms on the plains if enough low level moisture can
move westward. Over the weekend, lee trough will develop tending
to keep the deep moisture east of the area. The monsoon plume may
return to the mountains for modest increase in diurnal convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

KCOS...outflow boundary from earlier convection was moving west and
a band of lower clouds was noted over eastern El Paso county at 3
am. This  band was moving west and may (or may not) reach KCOS this
morning. Will continue to monitor and may need to introduce some
lower cigs in the TAF for early this morning. Otherwise, one or two
-tsra may affect the KCOS region later this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise expect VFR. Winds will be diurnally driven.

KCOS and KPUB will see primarily VFR next 24 hours with diurnally
driven winds. Cant rule out a brief -tsra with gusty winds later
this afternoon/early evening.




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