Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 081742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1042 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Currently...Brisk w-nw flow aloft in place across the region. Radar
and satellite imagery indicate that an area of low clouds and some
light snow persists in the lee of the eastern mts, mainly along the
I-25 corridor but spilling over to Crowley and Otero Counties as
well. This cloud cover has kept temps from dropping too low so far,
with readings of 12-14 degrees for PUB and areas south as of 4 am.
Locations east and north have dropped into the single digits.

Today and tonight...Intermittent light snow is expected to end this
morning, and though areas of low clouds may linger through the first
half of the day for the plains, conditions should dry out. The west-
northwest flow aloft will remain in place, and models indicate that
by late afternoon moisture will creep back into the central mts.
Snow will persist over the higher elevations of Lake and Chaffee
Counties tonight, with areas of blowing snow possible due to the
ocnl gusty w-nw winds. New snow amounts of 2-4 inches may be
possible for the central mts by Fri morning. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Persistent NW flow is expected to bring rounds of snow to the
central mountains through the extended.  Friday will be the
beginning of warming temperatures as Lee troffing and westerly
winds spreading into the I25 corridor. East of La Junta...sfc
winds will stay easterly...and although temperatures will moderate
some...they will remain on the cool side. Meanwhile...sufficient
moisture in NW flow will keep orographically induced light snow
showers over the Central Mts.

Next shortwave will move through the Pacific NW and across the
Nrn U.S. Rockies Saturday night/early sunday. Most of the energy
with this system will stay to the north...but moisture deepens
along the continental divide with snow ramping up especially
Sunday afternoon and night as the upper jet sags southward and
another disturbance moves through. Saturday will be windy and
warm with a much better jump in temperatures as highs across the
plains rebound back into the 50s to around 60. With winds and snow
ramping up across the high country will probably need another
winter weather highlight for the eastern Sawatch and western
Mosquito ranges during this period. Cold front drops through the
southeast plains on Sunday...though with farther north/less
amplified upper trof...GFS and ECMWF keep majority of the
precipitation across the northeast plains. Have tailed back pops a
bit across the southern areas.

Models diverge in the extended...with GFS more amplified than EC in
dropping another trof down through the Nrn Rockies and sending
another deeper surge of cold air through the region by Tuesday.
ECMWF is more zonal...but still indicates the potential for another
front...albeit less drop through the plains.  Have played
grids in the middle of the road for now until models come into
better consensus.  Central mountains should continue to pick up
some light snow...and depending on the strength of the
system...the SE Mts and plains could see some snow again Monday
night/early Tuesday with the next front. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

At KCOS, weak se upslope flow will keep low clouds and areas of
light snow in place, with IFR conditions at times through
midafternoon. Snow should end 20z-21z with improving vis, but
cigs may be a couple hours slower to lift as se winds persist. VFR
conditions then develop this evening and continue overnight as nly
drainage flow will help dissipate any lower cloud layers.

At KPUB, MVFR cigs will persist into midafternoon with weak SE
flow, then VFR by late afternoon and continuing overnight as flow
gradually becomes more nwly.

At KALS, vfr today and tonight.

Over the mountains, snow will increase along the Continental
Divide late this afternoon and continue into the overnight. Expect
IFR to LIFR conditions from KMYP northward beginning around 00z
and persisting into Fri morning.




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