Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 272045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Will continue to see increasing high cloudiness through tonight as
moisture continues to advect in from the southwest ahead of the next
west coast system.  This in combination with lee troffing should
keep low temperatures tonight on the warm side...particularly for
the lower eastern slopes and I-25 corridor.

Next more potent shortwave will move towards the Great Basin region
on Friday.  As moisture increases forecast models suggest some
isolated showers will be possible along the continental divide by
late afternoon.  Otherwise...remainder of the area should see bouts
of high cloudiness.   Winds will start to increase across the higher
mountains...particularly in the central mountains of Lake and
Chaffee counties.  However...not anticipating critical fire weather
conditions to be met as humidity values will remain above the
critical 15 percent threshold.  Otherwise...another potential record
breaking day for temperatures...particularly for COS and PUB.
Records for Friday 10/28 are: COS 77 in 1994 PUB 85 in 1994 ALS 75
in 1950. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Long range guidance indicates west southwesterly flow aloft will
gradually increase over the region as troughing develops off the
coast of California. Max temps are expected to gradually decrease
with time. By mid week next week a long wave trough will move
inland and move across Colorado. At this time...the long range
guidance shows this trough passage, but it is in disagreement on
path and intensity.


A couple of week waves will move across the region in the
southwesterly flow aloft. These wave will bring a chance of some
very light precip over the contdvd, especially the central mtns.
Temps for the most part will be in the L80s to M70s across the
plains, but there will be a gradually decrease in max temps with
time during this 3 day period.

Winds over the mtns, especially mtn tops, will be gradually
increasing during this period. Some of these stronger winds may make
it down onto the lower elevations at times. RH values will be in the
near critical category so local areas of marginal critical fire
weather conditions will be possible. The best day of more
widespread near critical fire weather conditions will be Monday.


Long range guidance shows a long wave trough moving across the
region. both EC and GFS close this system off to our west, but the
GFS lifts it northeast over W Colorado with time while the EC keep
the closed low moving southeast down across c/sw New Mexico. If the
GFS is correct then we will see a chance of precip over the region,
especially across all of the higher trrn and possibly the plains. If
the EC verifies, then only the far s sxns of our fcst area may see
any precip. The CRH procedure, imo, was quite bullish with pops.
After collaborating with surrounding WFOs, we all decided to trend
down the pops a bit across the region for the TUE-WED time frame.
Hopefully, the GFS verifies, but at this time my confidence is quite
low that we will see any significant precip given the pattern we are
in and the lack of agreement amongst the guidance. /Hodanish

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through the next 24 hours
with thickening cirrus deck at times tonight through Friday.  Light
southerly winds today will transition to enhanced northwest to west
drainage winds at KCOS and KPUB tonight...though speeds should stay
around 10 kts or less.  Winds will increase out of the southwest for
KALS on Friday with speeds in the 10-20 kt range...while KCOS and
KPUB will see southerly winds under 15 kts through the afternoon.




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