Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201812
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1212 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Warm and Windy Day Ahead...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, ahead of a
deep upper trough digging across the Pacific Northwest Coast. Water
vapor imagery is also indicating an embedded short wave translating
across the Rockies, with the main energy staying well south of the
area across southern New Mexico at this time.

Today and Tonight...Latest models remain in good agreement of
southwest flow aloft increasing through the period, as Pac NW trough
digs into the Great Basin through the afternoon, and then continues
into western Colorado tonight. The increasing flow will allow for
gusty southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph to develop and persist across
the higher terrain today and tonight. Induced lee troughing across
the eastern plains will also lead to gusty south to southwest winds
to develop across the lower elevation through the late morning and
persist through the early evening hours. Well above seasonal
temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s across the lower elevations
today, combined with the gusty winds, will lead to elevated fire
danger this afternoon. However, models remain consistent with enough
low level moisture within the southerly flow to keep humidity levels
around 20 percent, especially across the far southeast plains. Could
see some spotty critical fire weather conditions developing across
the I-25 corridor, however this does not look to be widespread or
persist long enough to issue a Red Flag Warning. Regardless, care
should be used today to prevent any fire starts.

Again, models remain consistent with moisture increasing through the
afternoon, with showers developing across the ContDvd through the
late afternoon and early evening. Showers become likely through the
late evening hours, as associated frontal boundary moves into
central Colorado after 06Z. The best lift, moisture and developing
CAA behind the front will keep the highest pops across the Central
Mts, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches expected by early Saturday
morning, with the greatest amounts generally north of Cottonwood
Pass. Isolated to scattered shower will be possible across the rest
of the higher terrain through early Saturday morning, with only
spotty accumulations expected with snow levels down to around 7000
feet by 12z.  Further east across the plains, dry weather should
hold through the late evening, with a few showers possible into
early Saturday morning as associated frontal boundary continues to
push east across the state. Breezy downslope flow will keep temps
fairly mild overnight across the plains, with lows mainly in the
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Several mainly dry cold fronts will move across the region during
this period...

3 cold fronts will likely move across the region during this period.
Given the dry NW flow aloft, not much in the way of precip is
anticipated with these fronts. The only exception will be across the
C mtns where some light accums of snow will be possible.

The first boundary will affect the area during Saturday. Snow
showers over the c mtns will be ending in the morning, with a cold
front crossing the plains. It will be breezy across the plains on
this day with max temps only reaching into the 50s and 60s plains
and 30s and 40s valleys. Sat nite will likely be the coldest night
of the extended fcst period.

Sunday and Monday the max temps will recover into the 70s plains and
50s and 60s valleys. Dry weather is near certain.

The next front will cross the region Tuesday cooling temps back into
the 40s and 60s plains and valleys. This front will not have much
influence in the mtns/interior valleys.

Temps will once again warm up Wednesday before a rather strong front
will cross the region early Thursday. This front may bring a chance
of some precip to the region, with snow higher elevations
(especially C mtns), and showers plains.

Overall confidence in the above scenario is high given all of the
long range guidance products are in fairly good agreement. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Upper disturbance tracking across eastern half of flight area
late this morning...headed into Kansas. Dry and gusty southwest
flow is spreading in behind it. Southwest breezes are already
blowing at KALS. KCOS is currently experiencing light east winds
as a rotor appears in place.  LLWS possible next hour or so until
rotor breaks down and southwest winds surface. Southwest winds
are already blowing at KPUB.

For tonight and Saturday, a quick moving Pacific disturbance will
track from west to east across the area. It will bring a period
of snow and blowing snow to the Continental Divide overnight into
early Saturday, particularly from the Monarch Pass area northward.
Could even be an embedded thunderstorm in the evening. Widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected with this activity. A few
showers could reach the eastern mountain areas overnight into
early Saturday but nothing too widespread is expected. The plains
should stay mostly dry with this disturbance. The disturbance will
continue to bring gusty winds to the flight area. Gusts to around
30 mph will be possible across the lower elevations with gusts to
40 mph in the mountains. Winds will start out from the west to
southwest today, shift westerly overnight and become
northwest to northerly on Saturday. The KALS, KCOS and KPUB
terminals will continue to deal with gusty winds at times through
Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR is expected at these sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



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