Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200534
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The decrease in wind speeds and the increase in relative humidity
values will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at 8 PM MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

...Areas of Red Flag conditions today with elevated areas of concern
tomorrow...

Currently...

Hot weather for this time of the year was occurring across the fcst
district as temps were in the 80s across nearly all of the plains.
Warmest temp at 2 pm was 86 at Lamar at 2 pm. Pueblo were only a
couple of degrees from their record highs. Except for some bands of
high clouds over the area, skies were generally most sunny. Red Flag
conditions were occurring over eastern Fremont, northern Pueblo and
Huerfano counties. Winds were remaining rather light (as predicted
by the guidance) over El Paso county as winds were generally in the
10-20 mph range.

Rest of Today and into Tonight...

Record highs are likely over PUB and COS as we only need a couple of
more degrees to break the record highs. KALS still needs 4 more
degrees so it may be close. Models show winds may pick up a bit up
in COS late this afternoon but winds should be marginal. Once sun
starts to set winds across the district will weaken.

Max temps tonight will be quite warm with lows in the 40s across the
plains...with a 50F or two possible along the immediate mtns/plains
interface. 20s and 30s will occur in the mtns.

Tomorrow...

Another very warm day is likely although highs will be a few degrees
cooler than todays max temps. Nonetheless, record highs at KALS,
KCOS and KPUB are fcst to be broken once again.

localized near critical fire weather conditions will be possible
once again mainly across Huerfano county and El Paso county
tomorrow. At this time it appears marginal for Red Flag conditions,
and have not issued any fire weather hilites for tomorrow. Later
shifts will need to monitor later guidance for potential Red Flag
conditions.

Should see a few more clouds tomorrow especially over the mtns
and I- 25 corridor region. A few light showers may also occur
along the contdvd as a weak short wave moves towards the region.
Any precip will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...A trough of low pressure over the
West Coast, and a ridge axis located just to the east of Colorado,
will allow southwest flow aloft to continue across the 4 Corners
region and across Colorado. A minor disturbance crossing the
northern Rockies will push a cool front south across the Colorado
plains on Tue, with increased cloud cover and perhaps a shower or
two for the eastern plains Tue eve. Otherwise, look for isolated to
low-end scattered pops across the higher terrain, and max temps both
Tue and Wed in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Pcpn chances will then
quickly increase along the ContDvd Wed night.

Thursday and Friday...A bit more agreement on the long range
solution now, with both the GFS and EC indicating a stronger low
pressure system affecting the forecast area. a closed low crosses
northern AZ and NM on Thu, reaching the far se corner of Colorado as
well as the TX and OK Panhandles Fri morning. Widespread pcpn is
forecast across all of the area Thu night and Fri morning, then
tapering off to the east as the system continues to pull away. Of
course, this will depend on how fast the system moves out, but
current model runs indicate the system will not linger. Expect
strong northerly winds Fri morning and afternoon. As for temps,
still a warm day expected on Thu prior to the low moving in, with
highs in the 50s for the high valleys and in the 70s for the plains.
On Fri the bottom drops out and current forecast grids have max
temps in the 50s and 60s for all areas, which will likely be lowered
even more as models maintain consistency.

Saturday and Sunday...Temporary ridging on Sat will dry out the
area, then sw flow aloft increases once again on Sun ahead of the
next low trough, bringing showers back to the higher terrain. Look
for max temps both days in the 60s and 70s. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours though invading
mid/high level clouds will spread in on Monday. Winds will
increase again from the south to southwest during the afternoon
with gusts around 20 kts possible at KCOS and ALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKELLY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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