Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

An upper level trof will move across WY and CO late tonight, and it
is expected to bring some showers to mainly the central CO mtns.
This system will also keep winds a little breezy in some areas
tonight which will keep temps generally warmer than they were last

That upper trof will move out of the area Mon morning, but then in
the afternoon another system will move into nrn UT and western WY
and ahead of it, some showers are expected to spread into the
Continental Divide. The NAM and GFS shows some showers over the
central CO mtns in the afternoon, and the GFS spread some into the
Pikes Peak area as well.  SPC shows the potential for some thunder
as well, so will include the mention of isolated thunderstorms in
the forecast for Mon afternoon.  The main concern for Mon is the
gusty winds and the potential for critical fire weather conditions.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be met in the San
Luis Valley Mon afternoon and along the I-25 corridor.  However, the
fuels along the I-25 corridor are not critical, and will therefore
not issue a Red Flag Warning.  Have already issued a Red Flag
Warning for the San Luis Valley after finding out this morning that
the fuels are critical. Wind in the San Luis Valley Mon afternoon
are expected to be 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts.  Quite strong
winds are also expected over the Eastern Sawatch Mountains,
including Monarch Pass, where winds will likely be gusting over 60

High temps on Mon will be above average, reaching the upper 70s
through the lower 80s acrs the southeast plains, and in the 60s to
around 70 in the Upper Arkansas River and San Luis Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Active meteorological conditions anticipated over the majority of
the forecast district during the balance of the longer term with
primary meteorological concerns including but not limited to
increased precipitation potential(including locally heavy rain and
heavy snow at times) from later Tuesday into next weekend, the
potential for stronger thunderstorms and gusty winds at times and

Recent PV analysis, longer term computer simulations and forecast
model soundings suggest that three upper systems will impact the
forecast district, with the 1st system moving across the CWFA from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

This initial system to contend with is expected to produce
beneficial precipitation, especially over higher terrain
locations/eastern slopes of the eastern mountains/foothills and
far eastern sections, especially from later Tuesday into Tuesday

At this time, the highest potential for heavier accumulating snow
over the eastern mountains and foothills should be noted at
elevations generally above 7000 feet with this initial system,
primarily during my 5th period(Tuesday night). As a heads up, if
later computer simulations/etc. continue with this trend, then
winter weather highlights may become necessary over these
locations during this time-frame.

Next trailing weaker 2nd system then impacts the forecast
district with another round of precipitation and continued cool
temperatures from later Wednesday into Thursday with higher
terrain locations and especially the Continental Divide locations
having the highest potential of accumulating snow during this

Meteorological focus then shifts to a potentially more
significant and colder storm system impacting the forecast
district from later Friday into next weekend as a vigorous closed
upper low initially located over south-central Utah at 00Z
Saturday shifts to near the 4-Corners region by 18Z Saturday and
then begins moving east to northeast of the CWFA by late weekend.

This storm system has the potential of producing a significant
meteorological impact to many sections of the forecast district,
especially from later Friday into next weekend as widespread heavy
rain and/or heavy snow in combination with strong winds may
develop. WFO Pueblo will continue to closely monitor the strength
and track of this potentially significant later week/weekend storm
system, since this is still 5+ days away and track and/or
strength deviations would be capable of producing large forecast
adjustments to southern Colorado.

In addition, some computer simulations still continue to indicate
that stronger thunderstorms may also be noted at times from later
Tuesday into late week.

Near seasonal later April temperatures should be experienced over
the majority of the forecast district from Monday night into
Thursday night with below seasonal temperatures then anticipated
from Friday into the weekend.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer
term should be noted Monday night, Tuesday evening into Wednesday
and especially from later Thursday into next weekend(favoring
eastern sections).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. W-SW winds will increase
across the region on Mon, with gusts over 30 kts at KALS and 20-25
kts at KCOS and KPUB after 18z. Areas along the continental divide
could see some isolated -shra/-shsn late tonight and through the
day on Mon, and higher peaks north of KMYP may be occasionally
obscured, especially after 21z.


Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ224.



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