Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190921
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

...More summer heat today...

Another hot day ahead...as a strong ridge to our south remains in
place. Should see temps at or even slightly above yesterday`s
levels, so expect near 90 degrees for the I-25 corridor, and lower
90s out over the Plains. POPs remain at zero through Tue morning.
Only subtle change in the weather will be the appearance of some
high clouds moving in from the SW overnight, associated with
Tropical Storm Paine off the Baja coast, and strengthening SW flow
to our west. High Clouds and continued warm air aloft could keep
temps a couple degrees warmer tonight. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Unseasonable warm weather is expected tomorrow through Friday...then
cooling off for the weekend into next week. Friday could be quite
windy across the entire region and fire weather may be an issue
on this  day. We could also see some strong storms Friday along the
border.

Tuesday...

A hot day is expected across the region as temps will be in the 90s
across most of the plains. It appears now that the moisture
associated with current Hurricane Paine in the pacific will be
shunted more ot our south, so only isold storms will be possible
in the mtns during the day Tuesday,with a slightly better chance
of showers and storms Tuesday night,mainly along the contdvd.

Wednesday...

Temps will continue very warm across the region,but will likely
be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday. A weak boundary is
expected to move across the region on this day, and we should see
our best chance of showers and isold storms mainly along the CO/NM
border.

Thursday...

A strong upper low is forecast to move over Nevada during the day
Thursday. Flow aloft over our region will strengthen significantly.
However,most of the forcing associated with this system will
remain to our west and only isold showers and storms will be
possible during the daylight hours. Max temps will cool a few
degrees over the region.

Friday...

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGH THIS DAY.

This will likely be our most active day during this forecast period.
Strong closed low is fcst to lift east northeast across Idaho and
into Wyoming during this day. Strong south-southwest flow will be
over the region with 130 knt jet overhead. A strong pacific cool
front is going to move across the region. It will be very windy in
advance of this front,and sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with
higher gusts will occur across the entire forecast region. These
winds combined with low RH values will likely cause any grass
fires which develop over the plains to move very quickly to the
northeast.

In addition,a line of strong storms may develop across the far
eastern plains during the afternoon and race off to the northeast
by early evening. Given the strong shear,the storms will be
severe if they develop. Storm intensity will be dependent on how
unstable the atmosphere can get on Friday (i.e, will there be
sufficient moisture return?)

Weekend...

Both GFS and EC are now indicating troughieness will hang back over
the greater NM region and this may allow for some showers to occur
along the CO/NM border,especially Saturday into early Sunday. Max
temps will be noticeably cooler with highs in the U60s and 70s
across the Plains and 60s valleys. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Continued VFR conditions at the TAF sites for the next 24-30 hours.
No precip over our area. Winds will continue to be light and from the
S to SE in the afternoon. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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