Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE KALS TAF SITE TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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