Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MONSOON DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...

A MOIST MONSOON DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SWING THROUGH COLORADO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FOR THE PLAINS...NOT SO MUCH
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD
EVERYTHING OFF TO THE WEST.  THEN...BY THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE MONSOON
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CREEPING UP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS EASTWARD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
VALUES CLIMBING OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY
AND THEN REACHING NEAR AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS THE PLAINS
BY LATE TONIGHT.  SO...DEFINITELY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  OBVIOUSLY...THIS RAISES
INCREASED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THAT RAIN FALLS OVER THE
WRONG LOCATION.

WITH THE INFLUX OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST WILL SHOW ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES OF COOLING AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS ENDING UP ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE PLAINS...HOWEVER...ANOTHER HOT ONE IS EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY.  LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS LOCATIONS...SUCH AS LA
JUNTA AND LAMAR...MAY EVEN BREAK 100 DEGREES AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS WY/NRN CO WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO KS/NE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...THOUGH RESIDUAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD. DEW POINTS INCREASE
SOME FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT THEY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT
CONCERNED MUCH WITH A SEVERE THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
FORTUNATELY STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON BURN SCARS. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS IN THE MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR THE PLAINS WHERE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP A
LOW GRADE FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD.

THE UPPER TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH
FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
AND ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES MONDAY.  LATEST RUNS NOW KEEP
RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER CO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE SCATTERED POPS INTO NEXT WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KCOS AND KPUB LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28



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