Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

...Severe Storm Potential Southeast Plains this Evening...

Satellite and radar showing convective initiation ongoing over the
plains of Las Animas and Bent Counties.  High resolution models
indicating thunderstorms should develop shortly this area with
potential to become severe.  Initial cells seem to be struggling.
Will have to wait for cap to weaken a bit more.  Models soundings
still show a pretty good cap out that way that will have to be
overcome.  However, high res models suggest this will happen between
5 and 6 pm.  Primary threats continue to be hail and wind but there
are also chances for a supercell producing a tornado. This is
primarily over Baca County as well as eastern Las Animas, Bent and
Prowers Counties through 7 or 8 pm.  Another area to keep an eye on
is Kiowa County. All present indications are that convection will
stay north of there but it may be close during the evening hours.
High res models are showing some pretty intense severe convection
tracking through Kit Carson County between 6 and 8 pm.  If this cell
ends up just a bit farther south, there could possibly be impacts in
Kiowa County, at least in the form of strong winds.  Another area to
keep an eye on is El Paso County.  Not much indication of convection
over El Paso County from the hi res models for this evening, but
there is still some limited potential.  The same distant shortwave
that helps to trigger the Kit Carson convection may have enough
impetus to trigger some cells across northern El Paso County as it
moves by to the north.  Thinking is that any convection wouldn`t be
too strong, though, with surface dewpoints up that way only in the
30s. This doesn`t rule out lightning and wind threats, though. Looks
like most if not all convection should be cleared out of the area by
around 9 pm.

Overnight, there could be some low cloud and patchy fog development
across the plains but not as widespread or as far west as it was
this morning.  Think that Springs will stay out of it.  Pueblo may,
too, with most of it from east of Pueblo to Kansas.

Any low clouds and fog should dissipate pretty quickly Tuesday
morning to be replaced by plenty of sun and warmer temperatures.
Winds will pick up in the afternoon but not to levels of concern.
Looks like highs across the plains will range from the mid 70s to
mid 80s. It`ll be warm in the high mountain valleys, too, with highs
in the 70s.  Should be a dry day with almost no chance for precip
anywhere across southeast or south central Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Models in general agreement through the extended period. Ensemble
spreads become high during the upcoming weekend with lower
confidence late in the period.

Tuesday night through upper level disturbance is
forecast to move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Plains through Wednesday. Across Colorado, energy on the southern
end of the disturbance embedded in westerly flow will move over
the region. This will lead to isolated to scattered showers across
the Central Mountains late Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening. Higher peaks will likely see a bit of light snow. Winds
will be breezy across much of Colorado Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will also be warm with upper 70s
to lower 80s across much of the Plains.

Thursday through Saturday...the next upper level disturbance is
forecast to reach the region by Thursday afternoon. The current
model projections have this system moving right across central
Colorado into Western Kansas by Friday, with broad northerly flow
across the area through Saturday.

Thursday will see the development of a dryline along the I-25
corridor by the afternoon, as the upper disturbance moves
overhead. Dewpoints are not forecast to be overly high, which will
help limit instability across the Plains. Upslope flow and CAPE
values around 500 j/kg will likely be enough to get scattered
thunderstorms going Thursday afternoon over the Eastern Mountains,
east into the Plains Thursday night. A cold front is forecast to
drop south over the Plains by Friday morning with gusty northerly
flow across the Plains. Energy embedded in the flow aloft will
likely keeps periods of showers going across much of the area
through the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler on
Thursday with upper 60s to lower 70s across the Plains. Expect
further cooling for Friday and Saturday behind the cold front,
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows are
forecast to fall into the mid 30s Friday night and Saturday night,
but at this time, look to remain above freezing.

Sunday and Monday...models develop high pressure over the Great
Basin and shift it east across the area through Monday. Sunday
looks like a nice day, with dry conditions expected to prevail and
highs in the lower 70s. By Monday, flow aloft transitions more
southwesterly, and isolated to scattered showers may be possible
along the Continental Divide Monday afternoon.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions thru the next 24 hrs. Tue
afternoon gusty southwest to west winds are expected at KALS with
gusts around 25 kts. KCOS is expected to have VFR conditions thru
the next 24 hrs but there is a chance that some low stratus could
move into the vicinity between 06Z and 12Z. KCOS should see gusty
southerly winds Tue afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts. KPUB cloud
see a deck of low stratus develop after 07z and remaining in the
area through about 13z. Otherwise KPUB should have VFR conditions.




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