Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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156
FXUS65 KPUB 151748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR TODAY AND SPREAD ISOLD PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE SERN PLAINS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...TRACKING E-NE TOWARD NRN UTAH BY SUNRISE SAT. AS A
RESULT...DEEP S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIP INCREASING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
STRONGER UPWARD MOTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. ADVANCED THE START
TIME OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO MIDDAY FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE...WITH WARNINGS OVER THE SAN JUANS/LA
GARITAS AND ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH WHERE S-SW FLOW IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIP. FARTHER EAST...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ACROSS MOST VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...LEADING TO AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST MORE
WIND THAN RAIN WITH MOST STORMS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS AND I-25
CORRIDOR. OVER THE PLAINS...DRY LINE PUSHES EASTWARD AS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS UNDER THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET...WITH DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFTING INTO KS AFTER 18Z. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION LOOK LOW AND WILL KEEP
MOST PLAINS EAST OF I-25 DRY UNTIL THE EVENING. AFTER 00Z...DRY
LINE DOES PUSH BACK WESTWARD TO A POSITION 20-40 NM WEST OF THE
KS/CO LINE...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS NEAR THE BORDER 00Z-09Z. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT
SCT/ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE EVENING AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD
OF UPPER JET STREAK PUSHING NORTHWARD OUT OF NM. MAX TEMPS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH DEEP MIXING...AND EXPECT READINGS TO
REACH THE SEASONAL AVERAGE MANY LOCATIONS FOR A CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IN MT AND WY...BUT A SECONDARY
H5 CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN CO ON SAT. THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING SOME LOCALIZED
HIGHER QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION SAT AFTERNOON...SO
THE WALDO SCAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN. OVER THE MTS...
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY AT 8500-9500 FEET...AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY ABOVE 10K FEET. HEAVIEST ACCUMS
WILL BE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS...WHERE SNOW TOTALS
MAY APPROACH A FOOT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WARNING FOR THE SW MTS AND
AN ADVISORY FOR THE NRN RANGES...WHERE TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE
MORE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY...WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING TO FOLLOW. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS N OF HIGHWAY 50...AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS IN THE 60S
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SW ON MONDAY...THEN TAKE A TRAJECTORY NE THROUGH UT ON
TUE AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SVR WX THREAT...BUT STILL
BRINGS SOME APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INTO ERN CO MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE ON WED...IT LOOKS LIKE A THIRD TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK. SO...OUR MOIST AND
COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HEAVIER RAIN COULD AT TIMES CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



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