Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
FXUS65 KPUB 040554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1054 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

...Wind and High Elevation Snow...

Cold Pacific Northwest Disturbance is over the northern Great Basin
this afternoon, headed southeast for Colorado tonight and Monday.
Disturbance will track north of the area so most leeward locations
east of the Continental Divide will see little if any precipitation
from this event.  However, the Divide itself will see some blowing
snow tonight into early Monday.  System is pretty quick with most of
the dynamics staying north of southern Colorado.  So, most of the
precipitation will occur as the result of terrain-forced lifting up
the windward side of the Divide.  It`s looking like accumulations
will generally be 2 to 5 inches along the Divide at elevations above
10,000 feet with local amounts up to an inch or 2 possible down to
about 9,000 feet.  For most everyone else across southern Colorado,
there is the potential for some spotty hit-or-miss snow showers
depositing spotty light accumulations of snow.  But in most cases,
there will be a lot more missing than hitting.  The bigger story for
most will be the wind and cold.  Winds are already ramping up across
the area with gusts over 50 mph at times in mountains and nearing 40
mph over parts of the lower elevations. Tonight, as the Pacific
disturbance tracks by to our north, those winds will ramp up even
further.  Gusts to around 60 mph will be possible in the mountains
with gusts to around 50 mph possible at the lower elevations,
primarily along and west of the I-25 corridor.  Homes will likely be
creaking and cracking at times in these areas, especially as we move
past midnight.

Monday morning, a Pacific cold front will blast through the area.
This will spread much colder air across the region and keep the
winds going for much of the day over the plains. The snow and wind
in the mountains will be winding down by Monday morning, save for
some lingering activity along the Divide, north of Cottonwood Pass.
Any additional accumulation will be pretty light up there, generally
less than an inch.  High temperatures Monday will be about 20
degrees colder than today`s readings and finally somewhere close to
average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

.Monday Night through Thursday...Shortwave moves east of the state
with only some lingering precipitation in the mountains Monday
evening. The strong upper ridge continues along the west coast
with a trough over the eastern CONUS. North to northwest flow
aloft will develop over the region. Core of the cold air will
remain to the east of the region, but weather will be noticeable
colder. Temperatures will generally be modestly below normal to
near normal. A disturbance will move southward on Thursday. Models
suggest there is the potential for some light precipitation with
this system, mainly over the eastern mountains and the mountains
of Lake County. Any QPF with this system looks to be very light.
This system may also bring some slightly colder temperatures to
the region. Given the uncertainty, did not modify temperature or
PoP grids on Thursday.

.Friday through Sunday...Latest model solutions have the trough
over the eastern CONUS drifting eastward with warmer air aloft
moving into the region. Grids have a warming trend for the
weekend with no precipitation. --PGW--


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1054 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

A disturbance moving north of the region will produce gusty winds
over the taf sites from tonight into Monday afternoon, otherwise
VFR conditions are anticipated over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf
sites into Monday evening.





$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.