Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE NM BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ARKANSAS RIVER BY 00Z. CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
RATON MESA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK SO FAR AS STORMS HAVE YET TO
TAP DEEPER INSTABILITY NEAR THE KS BORDER AND FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH COOL AIR SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...APPEARS
HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP JUST SHY OF FORECAST READINGS.

TONIGHT...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION...THOUGH LATEST HRRR HINTS AT SOME SOME BRIEF STRONGER
STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATING
NORTHWARD PROVIDES SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. WEAK SHORT WAVE...OVER
WRN CO CURRENTLY...WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME UPWARD MOTION AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST AND COALESCE INTO AN MCS OVER NWRN KS/SRN NEB...WITH
FAIRLY LARGE COLD POOL GIVING SURFACE FRONT A RENEWED SHOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BOUNDARY MOVING BACK
SOUTHWARD...WILL ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE PAST MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY.. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PUSHING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO. SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH E-SE FLOW PUSHING 55F-60F DEWPOINTS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH MOISTURE PLENTIFUL...EXPECT EARLY
INITIATION OF CONVECTION WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE 18Z AND SPREADING QUICKLY TO LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 21Z. MAIN
THREAT TOMORROW OVER ALL AREAS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH WITH
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET DAY OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP FAIRLY QUICK TO
DEVELOP...MAX TEMPS SHOULD COOL AT LEAST A FEW DEGF VERSUS MON
READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND EC
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. TUE EVENING THE TROUGH
WILL BE POISED OVER NV AND UT...CONTINUING TO DRAW A STRONG MOISTURE
PLUME UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO CO. THE TROUGH STEADILY
MARCHES TO THE EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH WED AND THU...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY REACHING THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES BY FRI
MORNING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE DYNAMICS
AND A COLD FRONT WED EVE WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PCPN FINALLY TAPERING OFF FRI
MORNING. LOOK FOR SCATTERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE EVE AND
AGAIN WED EVE THROUGH THU...WITH PCPN LIKELY OVER THE MTS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SW US. THIS WILL HELP A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE RESTRICTED TO
JUST ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 80S NEARING 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND
INTO THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS NEAR KCOS AND KPUB IN THE
22Z-02Z PERIOD...AND AROUND KALS 22Z-01Z. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TODAY...EXPECT LOWER CLOUD BASES AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND LOCAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z. MAY
SEE SOME IFR STRATUS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 12Z TUE...BUT
HAVEN`T INCLUDED LOWER CLOUDS IN KCOS TAF AS NORTH WIND MAY KEEP
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. ON TUE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA
ALL AREAS...WITH EARLY STORM INITIATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MTS WILL BE OBSCURED AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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