Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121722
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Currently...

At 3 am, patchy low clouds were noted over the region. Most of the
activity was noted over the greater Limon area, with the low clouds
extending into eastern El paso and Crowley county. Some low clouds
were noted over Baca county. Isolated pockets of low clouds were
noted elsewhere over the plains. Low clouds/fog were also noted over
the west side of teh Sa Luis valley.

Temp/dwpt spreads were quite low over the most of the region, with
many areas having 90% or greater RH.

Today...

Low clouds/fog will likely spread over parts of the region this
morning. Low cloud/fog will dissipate by mid to late morning with
partly cloudy skies developing. Max temps will be noticeably warmer
today with readings getting into the mid 80s across the lower
elevations of the plains with 70s and lower 80s elsewhere on the
plains. Valleys should get into the 70s.

As for precip today, all areas will have a chance for some rain,
although 2 areas will likely see a better chance than other areas.
The first area will be the far southeast plains (greater Baca
county). A weak trough is located over the far se plains and is not
expected to move much during the day. This will keep clouds and
showers/tsra over this region through the day, especially this
afternoon. The second area is the Pikes Peak region. Numerous HRRR
runs show storms developing over the higher terrain after 2 PM and
then moving east over the lower elevations of El Paso county through
the late afternoon. Storms are note expected to be severe today, but
locally heavy rain will once again be possible as plenty of moisture
is once gain available. Over the remainder of the region storms will
be more scattered in the mountains and more isolated over the
remainder of the plains.

Tonight...

No well defined disturbance is noted, so expect storms will roll off
the mountains and onto the plains this evening and then dissipate by
late evening. Best chance will be north of highway 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.Sunday...Sunday could be an active convective weather day
especially over the plains. Upslope flow continues to bring moist
low level air into the region. Aloft, a shortwave will move
southeast into the high plains with the CWA being on the southern
end of the shortwave. GFS has CAPES over 1500 J/kg over the plains
Sunday afternoon. Subtropical jet will be just south of the
region increasing shear aloft. SPC has a slight risk for Sunday
over much of the eastern plains with a marginal risk extending
westward to the I25 corridor. This captures the pattern well with
the models showing the greatest instability over the plains.
Further west, modest monsoon plume will continue to bring a chance
for diurnal convection.

.Monday through Wednesday...The pattern changes as a trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and moves eastward reaching
Colorado by Wednesday. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly on Monday
with a more monsoonal pattern returning to Colorado. Models
suggest the air aloft will gradually become drier with decreasing
chances for diurnal mountain convection by mid week. A weak lee
trough will develop resulting in deeper low level moisture moving
into the far eastern counties of Colorado and Kansas. This will
gradually move the best chances for precipitation to near the
Kansas border by mid week. Temperatures will warm to near normal
over much of the region.

.Thursday and Friday...Northwest flow aloft will develop over the
region as a ridge becomes established along the west coast.
Currently, it looks as if the cooler air will stay east of the
region, so it will not be as chilly as the few days. Models
suggest the monsoon plume will stay south of the region with only
modest chances for diurnal mountain convection. GFS suggests a
cold front may pass on Thursday increasing low level moisture on
the plains Friday. Currently, models are not too excited about
precipitation chances so left the low PoPs in the grids. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites with VCTS possible at all
three terminals after 21-22z. Gusty erratic winds up to 30 kts
will be possible with the stronger cells. Best chance for -TSRA to
impact the terminal will be at KCOS through the evening. It
appears there could be one or two lines of thunderstorms affecting
the KCOS terminal through 04z. Otherwise...IFR stratus will
develop across the plains again this evening...though its somewhat
uncertain how far west the stratus will make it. Best chance will
be at KPUB towards 12z...though if it does form it should break
relatively quickly Sunday evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT


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