Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

INCREASED MAX TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES THIS
MORNING OVER UTAH...MOVING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO.  THIS DISTURBANCE
IS WEAK AND HAS VERY LIMITED...MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL...MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.  LITTLE COLD AIR WITH IT...SO NOT LIKELY TO INTRODUCE MUCH
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  BUT...IT WILL PROVIDE SOME
WEAK LIFT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ENOUGH FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PIKES PEAK MAY EVEN PICK UP A SNOW SHOWER DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.  BUT...FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW FROM THIS ONE.  THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT IT BRINGS
ACROSS TODAY.  BUT...EVEN THOSE WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...STARTING OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE
KANSAS BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS...AND 30S THROUGH THE
20S HIGHER UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CONTDVD SHOULD RECEIVE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SNOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES
WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT SW ON FRI...WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING OVER COLORADO. SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE SW
MTS...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S
FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS EASTWARD ON SAT...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING W-NW AND
INCREASING. THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS...HELP BOOST AFTN TEMPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND HASTEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO WESTERN CO.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF W-NW FLOW
ALOFT STARTS SAT AFTN AND LASTS THROUGH TUE...WITH A NEARLY STEADY
STREAM OF SNOW FOR THE CONT DVD AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS.
NEARLY ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE THE FOCUS
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CO SUN MORNING...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PAINTING THIS
AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST
FOR THE PLAINS. MON AND TUE STILL LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES BUT RELAXES A BIT AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EC MODELS FOR WED AND BEYOND...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...AND MAX TEMPS WARMING BACK UP
TO AROUND 50F FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


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