Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
457 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MONSOON DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...

A MOIST MONSOON DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SWING THROUGH COLORADO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FOR THE PLAINS...NOT SO MUCH
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD
EVERYTHING OFF TO THE WEST.  THEN...BY THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE MONSOON
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CREEPING UP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS EASTWARD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
VALUES CLIMBING OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY
AND THEN REACHING NEAR AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS THE PLAINS
BY LATE TONIGHT.  SO...DEFINITELY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  OBVIOUSLY...THIS RAISES
INCREASED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THAT RAIN FALLS OVER THE
WRONG LOCATION.

WITH THE INFLUX OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST WILL SHOW ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES OF COOLING AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS ENDING UP ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE PLAINS...HOWEVER...ANOTHER HOT ONE IS EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR MAYBE A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY.  LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS LOCATIONS...SUCH AS LA
JUNTA AND LAMAR...MAY EVEN BREAK 100 DEGREES AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS WY/NRN CO WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO KS/NE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...THOUGH RESIDUAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD. DEW POINTS INCREASE
SOME FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT THEY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT
CONCERNED MUCH WITH A SEVERE THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
FORTUNATELY STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON BURN SCARS. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS IN THE MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR THE PLAINS WHERE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP A
LOW GRADE FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE CLIMO DURING THIS
PERIOD.

THE UPPER TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH
FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
AND ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES MONDAY.  LATEST RUNS NOW KEEP
RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER CO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE SCATTERED POPS INTO NEXT WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MONSOON DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.  THEN...TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER
COLORADO.  GENERALLY VFR ALL AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY...BUT
THEN DETERIORATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...LEADING TO AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR.  OVER THE PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
THE KLAA AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z TODAY.
THEN...TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z TODAY.  THEN...AFTER
00Z...VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MONSOON DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
FOR KALS...MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES TODAY WITH VCTS LIKELY AFTER
18Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS JUST DEPENDING
ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW



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