Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180501
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN CENTERED NR THE FOUR CORNERS THRU
TONIGHT...SHIFTING A LITTLE EASTWARD ON MON. THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACRS NRN CO. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS AND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT OVR THE MTNS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLD DEVELOPMENT OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WX DISTURBANCE...
OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS THRU THE EVENING HOURS...AND DISSIPATING OR EXITING
THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY ABOUT 1 OR 2 AM.

ON MONDAY AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO WRN NV AND SHIFT THE UPR RIDGE
CENTER A LITTLE EASTWARD OVR CO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.  EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS IN THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AGAIN. THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS
DEVELOPING OVR MOVING OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  HIGH TEMPS ON MON
WL AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...MORE MONSOON NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SHAKY AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS STRUGGLE WITH FAIRLY COMPLEX INTERACTIONS INVOLVING
THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE TO THE
SOUTH. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY...THEN THE CONSISTENCY STARTS TO UNRAVEL.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE PACNW...AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS OFF THE CA COAST. INCREASED
S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE UP FROM MEXICO AND THE DESERT
SW INTO WRN CO. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING QPF E OF THE
MTS...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR THE MTN AREAS. TEMPS WILL START TO MODERATE FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

THE LATEST GFS HAS A STRONGER OR MORE AMPLIFIED NRN TROUGH...AND
ALSO SHOWS BETTER PHASING WITH THE CA CUT-OFF LOW. IT ALSO HINTS
AT AT LEAST A POTENTIAL MOISTURE TAP FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE MOVING NWD...WELL OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE EC HAS A
WEAKER NRN SYSTEM AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST...WITH LESS OF A MOISTURE FLUX INTO CO.
BASED ON THE PATTERN AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
AN AMPLIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FROM
WED ONWARD BY 5-10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD...AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE THAT TREND IF THE DEEPER SYSTEM
ENDS UP LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
TRENDS...SINCE THE LONG RANGE GFS HINTS AT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS NRN BRANCH SYSTEM...BY THE LAST
WEEK IN AUGUST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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