Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182051
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

An upper level ridge wl remain centered over the central U.S.
tonight and Tuesday.  South to southwest flow aloft from Mexico,
through AZ and wrn NM and into wrn CO, wl continue bringing a stream
of mstr into the area.  Thus, there wl be good chances for
showers/tstms ovr the hyr trrn this evening, with generally isold
chances of the sern CO plains. By late night most if not all of
the pcpn is forecast to end, but there could be some lingering
pcpn, mainly ovr the hyr trrn along the Continental Divide. Tue
will be much like today, with thunderstorms developing ovr the hyr
trrn in the late morning and increasing in coverage for the
afternoon and evening hours, with just isold pcpn chances ovr the
plains. High temps on Tue are forecast to be around average in the
high valleys, and about five degrees above average ovr the sern
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

...Hot and Stormy this Week...
...Cooler by the Weekend...

Looks like this monsoonal pattern should persist through at least
Wednesday, possibly into Thu, as a strong upper high remains centered
over OK. Moist air will circulate around the west side of the ridge,
moving northward through AZ and NM, and bringing daily chances
of storms to the area. Precip chances will be highest over the
Mts and western portion of the CWA, but as the last couple days
have demonstrated, could also see some SCT storms move over the
Plains as well. Modest CAPE and shear will keep chances of SVR
relatively low, but could still see a few strong to marginally SVR
storms develop during this period. Temps will remain above
average, approaching 100 degrees for the hot spots over the Plains
at times. But, afternoon convection could put a lid on rising
temps, especially closer to the Mts.

Ridge should finally weaken by the end of the week, shifting
westward into NM by Friday. Concurrently, a couple short
wave troughs will move through the Nrn Rockies...one Fri, another
late Sat, and a third possibly early next week. This will bring
cooler air to our area, as well as a slightly better chance for
increased showers and storms east of the Mts. Temps for next
weekend should be back into the lower 90s for the Plains, and 70s
for the high country. Increased winds aloft could bring a slightly
better chance of strong to svr storms to our area, especially by
Sun or next Mon. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Tstms at or in the vcnty of the terminal forecast sites will be
possible thru the evening hours, and again Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  Strong wind gusts wl be a threat, along with locally heavy
rain. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



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