Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Westerly flow aloft will be found over CO today and tonight.  Mainly
just some high level clouds are expected at times.  The weather will
remain dry and very warm, with temps today being at or near record
levels.  The records for today are as follows:  Alamosa 69, Colo
Spgs 80, and Pueblo 85, all set in 2015.  The main concern for today
is the potential for high fire danger.  There has been poor RH
recovery tonight acrs the southeast plains, with RH values in the
teens and 20s over much of the area, except closer to the KS border
where RH values are in the 30s and 40s.  Min RH values today will be
quite low, 10% and lower over all the I-25 corridor and southeast
plains, but winds do not look all that strong. However it still
looks like El Paso and Teller counties should see west to northwest
winds increase late this afternoon and will probably meet red flag
criteria in areas. Will leave the Red Flag Warning as is but at this
time conditions are looking like they could be marginal.

A weak front will move through southeast CO tonight and slightly
better RH recovery is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Models in decent agreement through much of the extended period
with continued dry and warm conditions across southern Colorado.
By late in the period, there is a chance for precipitation, and
possibly our first severe weather of the spring season.

Friday through Saturday...broad upper level ridging will move
across Colorado with continued dry conditions across the region. A
cold front Thursday night will bring low level easterly winds with
a slight cool down. Highs on Friday will reach into the 60s and
70s. By Saturday, temperatures will warming into the lower 80s
across the lower elevations. Breezy conditions across the Plains
may be elevated fire weather concerns to the area Saturday
afternoon. upper disturbance is forecast to pass well to our
north on Sunday. This will tighten the gradient across Colorado
with strong mixing expected by the afternoon. This will lead to
widespread critical fire weather conditions across all the Plains
Sunday afternoon. Extreme caution is advised with any outdoor
burning activities.  Temperatures will also remain warm with 80s
across the Plains.

Monday into Tuesday...flow aloft will transition westerly ahead
of a strong upper level disturbance. Weak energy embedded in the
westerly flow may bring a few isolated showers to the Continental
Divide, especially for the Central Mountains. Both Monday and
Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s and 70s
across the Plains.

Wednesday...a strong upper level storm system is forecast to move
into the Desert Southwest by mid week. This may set the stage for
our first severe weather episode for this spring. Strong southerly
flow will likely set up a dry line across the Eastern Plains. The
one missing ingredient may be moisture, as the model guidance only
has mid 40s dewpoints by Wednesday afternoon, with only 1000 j/kg
of CAPE. Over the mountains, expected rain and high elevation snow
to spread east off the Continental Divide into the Sangre de
Cristo range by Wednesday afternoon. The main impacts will likely
be felt across the Plains on Thursday, as the upper system wraps
up over the region. This storm is a long ways out, and deviations
in the storm track will likely shift precipitation areas. We will
continue to monitor this system as we move into next week. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with
mainly just some high level clouds.  Afternoon and evening west to
northwest winds could gust to near 20 kts at KPUB and maybe a little
higher at KCOS.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ221-226-227.



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