Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222344
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
544 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

BOOSTED POPS ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES TO BETTER
REFLECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION. ALSO LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASED MIXING AND 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE HAVE LED TO A STRONG WARM
UP OVER ALL OF THE REGION...WITH READINGS INTO THE 70S/80S ON THE
PLAINS...WHILE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS HAVE WARMED INTO 50/60S.
ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS CREPT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED AROUND TRINIDAD SINCE 20Z. FOR THIS
EVENING...MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL DIE
QUICKLY BY SUNSET...WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING ALONG THE NM BORDER
UNTIL 02-03Z. AGAIN...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ONLY
SPRINKLES AND WIND...THOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RATON MESA
COULD PICK UP A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
RATHER MILD AS S-SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

ON SATURDAY...INCREASING WIND ALL AREAS AS UPPER LOW LIFTS QUICKLY
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO WYOMING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION/VIRGA PERHAPS
PRODUCING SOME 45 KT OR HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND FALLING DEWPOINTS...SMALL AREA OF THE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR MAY SEE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO EAST TO LA JUNTA. FUELS IN THIS AREA
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO GREEN-UP...AND WITH LATEST FUELS STATUS AND
VEGETATIVE GREENNESS MAPS SHOWING CONTINUED CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
COUNTIES FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS LOW APPROACHES...EXPECT
SCATTERED TSRA OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS
AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM MONARCH
PASS NORTHWARD. ACROSS THE PLAINS...AREAS ALONG THE KS BORDER AHEAD
OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN
CO/NORTHWESTERN KS BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR ERN TIER OF ZONES...BUT WON`T
MENTION SEVERE AT THIS POINT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY WARM ONCE
AGAIN WITH DEEP MIXING ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER MT AND WY SAT NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH BRINGING
CONVECTION TO THE CONTDVD AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT DRY AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MON...THEN CROSSES COLORADO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHERN WY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON SWINGING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH...WHICH MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTS...ESPECIALLY CONTDVD...ON MON. ALSO...SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON MON
WILL KEEP THE PLAINS WARM WITH MAX TEMPS STILL IN THE 70S. ON TUE AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD PCPN WILL LIKELY HUG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY WED MORN...WITH CONTINUED
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST WED...MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA ON THU. DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH SOME
MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN CO..PROMPTING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CONTDVD EARLY THU...THEN SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. THE GFS AND EC MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM A BIT DIFFERENTLY...SO PCPN PROBABILITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SANGRES AND SAN JUANS WHERE
MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY MORE PLENTIFUL. STORMS WILL DIE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES AND HIGH VALLEYS. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS WIDESPREAD
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ228-
230>233-235.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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