Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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635
FXUS65 KPUB 280509
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1009 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Updated for expiration of Red Flag Warning at 6 pm across
southeast Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Snow and Wind on the Divide...Fire Danger on the Plains...

Strong winds, low humidities and dry fuels are causing high fire
danger across the plains this afternoon.  At least 3 separate fires
noted per radar and satellite imagery this afternoon.  These
conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon
before subsiding this evening.  Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for the plains through 6 pm.  Tuesday, cold front will move south
through the plains bringing relief from the fire danger to most
areas of the plains.  However, the area south of Highway 50 will be
under the gun again in the afternoon before the cold front arrives.
Best estimate right now is that Huerfano, Las Animas and Baca
Counties will be the primary targets.  A new Red Flag Warning has
been hoisted for those areas from noon to 6 tomorrow.

The other side of this storm is the snow.  Snow has been increasing
and will continue to increase along the Continental Divide through
tonight into Tuesday.  Total accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are
expected along the Divide through Tuesday evening with up to 2 feet
of snow across the eastern San Juans.  Some snow and rain will also
work eastward across the high valleys to the eastern mountains and
plains.  Parts of the San Luis Valley, particularly the southern and
extreme northern parts of the valley, could see a few inches of
accumulation overnight into Tuesday.  The eastern mountains could
see 4 to 8 inches above 10,000 feet with 1 to 3 possible below.
Elsewhere, spotty light accumulations of an inch or 2 are possible
above 6000 feet but most areas will see little or no snow from this
event.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tuesday night-Thursday...Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft
behind a passing shortwave system lifting out across the Northern
High Plains, is progged to moderate through the day Wednesday and
slowly become more westerly through the day Thursday. Should see
scattered and rain and snow showers diminishing from west to east
through Tuesday evening, save the central mountains, where could see
light snow showers continuing through early Wednesday morning. Quick
movement of system and its associated cold front across the eastern
plains will limit precipitation amounts Tuesday night, though could
see a few inches of snow across the higher terrain, with up to an
inch across the Palmer Dvd, mainly on grassy areas. Breezy north to
northwest winds expected across the Eastern Plains Tuesday evening
behind passing front, with winds diminishing Tuesday night. Dry
weather with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal averages can
be expected Wednesday through Thursday. Will see breezy winds over
and near the higher terrain through the period. though does not look
like there will be widespread Red Flag conditions at this time.

Friday-Monday...Latest models keeping moderate westerly flow and
generally dry, warm and breezy weather across the area into early
next week, as the jet stream and storm track stays north of the area
across the Pac NW through the Northern Tier. This will allow for
breezy and warm afternoons across the eastern Plains, with highs
back to well above seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s across the
lower elevations, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds and expected low rhs will lead to increasing
fire danger through the weekend. Highest fire danger looks to be on
Sunday, as stronger flow aloft ahead of an embedded shortwave
translating across the Northern Rockies, mixes down across the area.
This passing wave could bring some light snow the the higher terrain
of the Central Mountains, Saturday night and through the day Sunday,
with the system sending a dry cold front across Eastern Colorado
Sunday night and early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours, as a broad upper trough moving across the region through
the day tuesday brings IFR conditions in snow and blowing snow to
areas over and near the ContDvd. Could be brief MVFR/IFR
conditions in showers at TAF sites through the late morning and
early afternoon, though not confident enough to go more than VCSH
at this time. Breezy south to southwest winds at TAF site through
the morning hours becomes more northwest through the afternoon
behind passing trough with clearing skies and decreasing winds
through the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for COZ058-
060-061-066-068.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ229-230-
233-237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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