Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 012123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARM WITH 80S TO 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WORKING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.  EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  A
FEW CORES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAIL.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO.
CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR
SOUTHWEST TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA.  MODELS DEVELOP AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE PLAINS REMAINS DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 80S AND 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WED EVENING WILL END QUICKLY MOST AREAS WITH
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
REDEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUANS TOWARD THU MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SWRN CO. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER WITH THE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THU/FRI...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. STILL APPEARS HIGHER
TERRAIN/INTERIOR VALLEYS FROM THE SANGRES WESTWARD WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EASTERN SLOPES AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW KEEP A DOWNSLOPE WRLY COMPONENT. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED ON THU...THEN DRIFT DOWNWARD A FEW DEGF
OVER MAINLY THE MTS ON FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVE IN.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS SAT THEN MOVES
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE W-SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS SAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM I25 WESTWARD...BEFORE FLOW
BECOMES FAIRLY STRONG WLY ON SUN...LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ALL
AREAS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PERHAPS A DEGF OR TWO COOLER THAN FRI
MANY LOCATIONS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHT WITH FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO LATE SUN/EARLY MON AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MARCH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH MORE MOIST THEN
EURO BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP BOTH DAYS. EURO
HAS SOME WEAK UPSLOPE MON INTO TUE...BUT KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND MOST PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN NM/TX/OK. EXTENDED
PROCEDURE GAVE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS WHICH WILL BE FINE FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY DOWNWARD FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MAXES BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS MANY AREAS MON...THEN LITTLE CHANGE ON
TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

KALS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. REDUCED VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CORES THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 03Z/WED. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL.  EXPECT LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.

KCOS AND KPUB...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF INTO THE KCOS AND KPUB
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/WED. REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCOS AND KPUB. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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