Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121807
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1107 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Mild December Weather Will Continue...

The persistent upper level ridge over the western U.S. will expand
eastward a bit today, resulting in even milder readings than
yesterday.  Afternoon highs across southern Colorado will be
anywhere from 15 to 25 degrees above average for this time of year.
Within that range, the plains will see the greatest anomalies with
readings 20 to 25 degrees above average.  The mountains and high
valleys will see highs generally 15 to 20 degrees above average.  I
don`t think we`ll see enough of a Chinook to get the temperatures
quite up to record levels but it will be close.  Records for today
include 56 in Alamosa (2004), 67 in Colorado Springs (1934) and 71
in Pueblo (1924).  Forecasts for these locations today are 53, 64
and 66, respectively.  So, highs should be within a few degrees of
records in most cases.  Not enough wind today for fire weather
highlights. However, humidities remain low and fuels remain dry so
caution needs to continue with regard to outdoor activities
involving spark or flame.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Wednesday-Thursday night...Increasing north to northwest flow aloft
is expected on Wednesday, as a short wave embedded within the strong
flow across the Northern Tier, digs down the backside of the long
wave ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest.
This system looks to bring breezy conditions, especially to portions
of the far southeast plains through the late morning and afternoon,
as its weak cold front moves across eastern Colorado. This will
bring another day of elevated fire danger conditions to the
southeast Colorado Plains, however, critical fire weather conditions
look to be marginal, and will not go with a fire weather watch at
this time.  Temperatures on Wednesday are looking to be be cooler
than Tuesday, though still above seasonal levels, with highs in the
50s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain.

Models continue to agree on more energy digging down the backside of
the ridge late Wednesday night and through the day on Thursday, and
still differ on how far west said energy digs. The EC remains the
furthest west and wettest solution, with GFS and NAM having run to
run issues on where said wave translates and how much precipitation
is generated. At any rate, models are not indicating a lot of
moisture with this system, and have continued to stay close to
blended model pops which keeps slight to chance pops across the
central mountains Wednesday night, with pops spreading south and
east to areas over and near the Eastern Mountains Thursday morning
through the afternoon. Quick movement of the system would limit
snowfall to a couple of inches across the higher terrain, with only
flurries expected across the lower elevations with expected dry sub
cloud layers. The further west solution brings a stronger cold front
across the Eastern Plains, with 00z EC guidance gives PUB a high of
39F, whereas 00z MAV guidance gives PUB a high of 54F. At any rate,
breezy northerly winds behind the passing cold front will once again
bring elevated fire danger to the eastern plains, however, models
continue to indicate more low level moisture moving across the area
Thursday, precluding critical fire weather conditions.

Friday-Monday...Flat upper ridging rebuilds across the Rockies on
Friday ahead of another short wave translating across the Pacific
Northwest. This will keep dry weather across the area and boost
temperatures back to above seasonal levels on Friday. Said wave then
progged to dig across the Great Basin and across The Central Rockies
on Saturday, before continuing south and east into the Southern High
Plains on Sunday. This will bring chances of precipitation to the
higher terrain on Saturday and Saturday night, with the latest GFS
run printing out some light QPF across the plains as well. Drier and
warmer weather then expected on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24
hrs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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