Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191736
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Based on hi res guidance...bumped up pops for the plains tomorrow,
especially for the pikes peak region tomorrow morning rush hour.
Could be a bit messy for the drive into work tomorrow. Fcst
update will be sent out prior to noontime if not earlier.
/Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

...THE NEXT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED GENERALLY
INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE MID SLOPES, TO 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

TODAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
BEGINS TO EJECT ENERGY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.  ACROSS THE PLAINS,
EXPECTED PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.  ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENERGY EJECTING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND PICKING UP IN INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING.  AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN COLORADO
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MORNING.  PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA.  AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE COULD SEE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL BY MORNING.  AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TONIGHT, LOCATIONS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES COULD SEE
3 TO 6 INCHES, WHILE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE WILL SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES.

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SEVERAL HIGHER
RESOLUTIONS MODELS ALONG WITH THE GFS DEVELOP A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  THIS WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  THE NAM 3KM HAS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A TRINIDAD TO LAMAR LINE.  FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW BELOW 4500 FEET,
WHILE MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Active Weather Pattern through the Middle of Next Week...

Models continue to show an active storm track over Colorado for the
next several days.  Several disturbances from the Pacific will track
east across the state.  First disturbance moves in this evening and
continues east across the plains on Friday.  Disturbance will bring
good snows to the Continental Divide, particularly across the
southwestern mountains.  Mixed signals on how much precip, if any,
to expect across the lower elevations.  The GFS20 and high
resolution runs of the NAM show a circulation center and area of
precip developing and moving east across the plains late tonight
through Friday, with light amounts of precip falling in many areas.
However, the low resolution runs of the NAM show the circulation
center and clouds but virtually no precip.  H7-H5 lapse rates are
marginal for convection at 6.0-7.0 DegC/KM so I`m not sure
instability is the culprit.  The only thing I can see is a little
bit of convergence along a deformation axis as the trough shifts
northeastward onto the plains Friday morning, particularly over the
Pikes Peak Region.  If the GFS20 and high res NAM models are
correct, this could provide just enough dynamic lift to generate
some light precip across parts of the plains on Friday, especially
across Teller and El Paso Counties.  So, will carry some low to mid
grade (Pikes Peak Region) pops across the plains Friday to reflect
this.

The next, larger wave of energy moves into the Continental Divide
late Saturday night and across the plains Saturday afternoon and
evening.  Another good dump of snow for the mountains, again
particularly across the southwest mountains.  And much like the
first system, there are model discrepancies on how much precip, if
any, to expect across the plains.  The NAM20 has virtually nothing
for the plains whereas the GFS20 passes the low center across the
panhandles Saturday evening and brings at least a low to medium
threat of wrapping some moisture back into the far southeast
Colorado plains.  For now, some low to medium (Baca County) pops for
Saturday and Saturday evening seem the way to go.  However, pops may
need to go lower or higher across the plains just depending on how
this thing actually tracks.

We`re not done yet.  Yet another Pacific storm is poised to track
across the region Sunday night through Tuesday.  This one will bring
the most snow yet to the mountains, particularly to the Divide but
also to the eastern ranges.  It will also bring a chance of snow to
the lower elevations Monday night and Tuesday as it tracks east
across the plains.  Current model runs are continuing the trend of
previous runs to keep the low track a little too far north to be a
big player across southeast Colorado.  However, this looks like a
pretty healthy system with some good system dynamics, cold air and a
little bit of instability.  So, there is still a window of
opportunity for some precip across the lower elevations as this
thing moves through Monday night and Tuesday.  While there could be
some rain showers across the lower elevations with this system
initially Monday evening, system looks cold enough for mostly just
snow after that.  System is still several days out so stay tuned for
continued updates.

By the time Wednesday rolls around, cold northerly flow will cover
the state.  Models indicate some embedded disturbances in the flow
will produce snow showers across the high country and possibly over
the lower elevations as well, particularly across the Pikes Peak
Region, along the Palmer Divide.  It will be chilly with afternoon
highs likely 10-20 degrees below average for this time of year and
some areas not getting above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Have increased precip chances in the taf products as I am highly
confident KCOS will see some accum snow starting early tomorrow
morning and lasting into late morning. This will bring at least
IFR conditions to KCOS. Chances for snow this evening and tonight
are high for KALS with accompanying IFR conditions. KPUB will also
see some snow late tonight into tomorrow morning but confidence is
less. Will at least likely see lower cigs at KPUB tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST
Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST
Saturday for COZ058-060-073-075-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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