Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
910 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Issued at 906 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Guidance indicating a better chance of snow for the Pikes Peak
region this afternoon and evening. Have increased POPS and
snowfall amounts across the PP region.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Broad upper trough over the area early this morning, with secondary
piece of energy over UT forecast to slide eastward across CO this
afternoon and evening. Still a few flurries across the Palmer Divide
early this morning, with regional radar loop suggesting some patchy
light snow moving back toward the central mountains as lift begins
to increase ahead of wave in UT. For today, expect snow to increase
across the mountains as wave moves through, with some patchy 1-3
inch accums possible under some of the heavier convective showers.
Over the eastern mountains and plains, as surface high pressure
drops south from NE into KS this afternoon, low level winds will
gradually take on an easterly component, leading to some weakly
enhanced lift into the evening. Eastern slopes of the
Wets/Sangres/Pikes Peak, as well as nrn El Paso county/Palmer divide
look favored for at least light accumulating snow, with NAM
generating several inches over the south slopes of the Palmer by
09z. Hunch is NAM is overdone given rather dry low levels, but still
should be enough lift for accumulating snow in terrain favored
areas, including the nrn half of El Paso county. Have increased pops
and snow amounts for many areas, with accums in the 1-4 inch range.
Max temps today will remain cold, with 20s/30s lower elevations,
teens and 20s mountains. Tonight, snow comes to an end after
midnight as wave moves east and upslope surface winds end, with at
least some clearing likely by early Sat morning. This should allow
mins to drop to rather cold levels, with single digits and teens
many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Saturday and Sunday...West to northwest flow aloft will keep snow
across the central mts Sat morning, while the rest of the forecast
area remains dry. An upper disturbance is forecast to cross the
state Sat night through Sun morning, which will increase snow
chances for all of the mts. This disturbance moves east of the state
by Sun evening, with westerly flow aloft then developing for a
continued shot of snow for the ContDvd. Both days look like it will
stay cool across the forecast area, with max temps in the 30s and
40s for the high valleys and plains.

Monday and Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft develops across the region
as the upper trough sweeps across the Intermountain West on Mon,
then the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Tue. The upper jet
will be situated across the 4 Corners on Mon, causing strong
downslope winds across the forecast area and likely producing
critical fire weather conditions for the plains. Snowfall is
expected to increase across the ContDvd on Mon, and spread to all of
the mts by Mon eve. A surface cold front will drop south across the
plains Tue morning, ushering in cooler air and an isolated shot of
some pcpn for the plains through the day Tue. Look for max temps in
the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and upper 40s to around 60F
for the plains on Mon. Temps on Tue will drop about 5 degrees with
the cold front passage.

Wednesday and Thursday...Northwest flow aloft settles in across the
region, providing for dry but cool conditions. Expect high temps in
the 30s and 40s for the high valleys, and in the 40s to around 50F
for the plains on Wed. For Thu max temps are forecast to warm about
5 degrees higher regionwide. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 411 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

At KALS, VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with light
winds. At KPUB, VFR cigs will develop and lower after 18z, with a
few flurries possible near the terminal 00z-06z. Skies then begin to
clear after 06z. At KCOS, patchy low clouds near the terminal early
this morning may bring a brief period of MVFR cigs, along with a few
flurries through 15z. A better chance of snow develops after 21z,
with a period of IFR cigs/vis in snow 23z-05z. Snow will gradually
taper off after 06z, with cigs improving to VFR after 10z-12z.
Mountains will be occasionally be obscured by -shsn today and this
evening, with snow ending 06z-08z and slow clearing 10z-12z.




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