Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN GENERAL...ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE.  FIRST...FAIRLY DRY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING CO THIS MORNING...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.  TRACK OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COUPLE
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AM
SKEPTICAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT LOOKS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT AS THE NRN
STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHES ITS DIFFICULT TO
RULE THIS OUT ENTIRELY.  GRIDS THIS EVENING HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS...AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT AND DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE
SOME...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT EVENT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.  H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.

WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z.  LEE TROF DEEPENS AND HIGH RES
WRF SPREADS SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8-
8.5KFT TOWARDS MORNING.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES SHOULD KEEP MINS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. MEANWHILE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER JET DRIVING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CONTDVD
BEGINNING SAT AFTN...AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS. MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MTS FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MON
AFTN SINCE THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF THE MTS MAY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED SNOW...W-NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...SO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER MT
PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BE SKETCHY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E
PLAINS SUN MORNING...AND ISOLATED PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY
ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE...SUNDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LATEST GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON WED...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THU. BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD...MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
RELATIVELY DRY. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED POPS
FOR THU FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTRADICT THIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS LOW. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


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