Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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496
FXUS65 KPUB 270508
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1108 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

With an upper level ridge remaining over the area tonight through
Tuesday, the weather will continue to be dry.  Overnight lows will
generally be a little warmer than last night, but temps around
freezing are still possible in the Alamosa area, with 20s over the
higher mountain areas.

On Tuesday, temps will be a little warmer than today, with 80s over
most of the southeast plains and 70s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

...Continued warm through the weekend...

The global models continue a trend of bringing a weaker upper
low pressure system through our area for the latter part of this
weak. So, the flow pattern is more from the SW through the week
and this will result in continued above average temperatures
through most of the extended. Temps will generally reach the
lower 80s for the Plains each day, and 60s for the mts/high
valleys.

The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM are considerably slower
with the progression of the upper low moving through CO this week.
Now, it looks like the first solid chance of any precip won`t come
until Thursday morning over the SW Mts, spreading to the Ern
ranges by Thu afternoon. With SW flow aloft, the E Plains are
not as likely to see significant precip from this system. Best
chance of precip for our area now looks to be on Friday, and
mainly for the mt areas. This initial system will move through by
Saturday, but will be followed by a series of shortwaves in SW
flow through the weekend, which will keep the threat of showers
going for the mts. Snow levels will be high...generally over 12K
feet.

The next question will be the track of a low pressure system that
will develop over the PacNW by the end of the week. Model runs
have been inconsistent, with some solutions bringing a deeper low
and much colder weather to our area by early next week. But the
consensus is for an open wave favoring the northern zones for
precip. A bit too early to say given the poor long-term progs as
of late. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kals and kcos. Sfc winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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