Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
445 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WEAK WAVE WL MOVE EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOME ISOLD TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WL BE
DRY. HIGH TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE SW MTNS.  THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE
PEAK OF THE SANGRES TOWARD MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SUN THERE MAY BE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

...HEAVY SNOW HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL MTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF STRONG AND
MOIST PACIFIC JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FALL TO THE CENTRAL MTS.
STRONG OROGRAPHICS AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO BRING 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTS...GREATEST NORTH OF COTTONWOOD
PASS...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGH MT PASSES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
40 MPH PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ZONES 58 AND 60. HAVE ALSO HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR ZONE 59...AS THE STRONG UVV AND OROGRAPHICS COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN AND AROUND THE LEADVILLE AREA. PASSING
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MTS AND THE SOUTHWEST MTS. BANDED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG CAA AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND PASSING FRONT. SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE INTENSE AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY TO PRODUCE A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS. FLOW
ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER CHRISTMAS DAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WARM ON THURSDAY...SAVE SCATTERED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
OPERATIONAL EC IS DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW
AREAWIDE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. TIME WILL TELL IF SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS...WITH BOTH MODELS CONTINUING
TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT KALS THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUD
COVER OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING.
OTRW...KALS WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT WHEN THERE WL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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