Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Snow in the Mountains and High Valleys with a Little Bit
Reaching out onto the Plains...

Upper level disturbance visible in satellite at this time,
spinning near the Four Corners Region. System is showing a little
warm air advection banding over northwest New Mexico, originating
over the Gallup and Farmington areas and then ejecting northeast
into Colorado. This whole area of lift will track quickly north
to northeast across the forecast area this morning and then exit
quickly to the north and northeast during the afternoon. The
system will bring several more inches of new snow to the
Continental Divide and the higher elevations of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains today. The San Juans could see another 4-8 inches
while the Continental Divide north of the San Juans and the
higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains could see
another 3-6 inches. The high valleys, such as the San Luis, the
Upper Arkansas and Wet Mountain Valleys, have already seen some
light accumulations of generally an inch or less overnight. These
areas could also pick up a bit more snow this morning, perhaps
another inch or 2 in some areas. The plains east of the mountains
won`t see a lot of snow from this storm. However, a little bit of
warm overunning on top of the old arctic airmass should manage to
squeeze out a few more flurries this morning for areas primarily
along and west of the I-25 corridor. Accumulations won`t be great
but there could be a dusting up to about an inch or so in some
spots. For the rest of the plains, there could be some spotty
snow showers producing a dusting here and there but nothing too
widespread is expected at this time.

Tonight, the system will continue to wind down with still some
lingering snow showers along the Continental Divide.  However,
the storm will be in a reprieve for the most part with just
some spotty accumulations of an inch or 2 possible.  Snowfall
should be over for the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological reasoning
with somewhat active conditions expected over the majority of the
forecast district into the weekend as several upper disturbances
impact southern Colorado during this time-frame.  Then, improving
conditions anticipated early next week in advance of another storm
system by next Wednesday.

Recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and
PV/Precipitable Water analysis continue to indicate that unsettled
conditions(in the form of accumulating snow and areas of blowing
snow) will be noted at times over the Continental Divide as well as
mountain locations into the weekend.

Elsewhere, northern locations of the forecast district have the
potential of experiencing unsettled conditions Saturday as a system
swings by to the north of the forecast district.

It still appears that more tranquil and mild conditions will be
noted Monday and Tuesday over the CWA as drier zonal to
southwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado with
unsettled conditions returning to the forecast district Wednesday as
near system impacts the region.

It still appears that the highest potential for more
widespread/gusty winds over the forecast district during the longer
term should be realized from Friday into the weekend and especially
on Monday.  At this time, the highest potential for
localized/elevated fire weather conditions(over select eastern
locations) is anticipated Monday and Tuesday.

Finally, below seasonal later February longer term maximum
temperatures in combination with minimum temperatures running near
climatological averages are anticipated into the weekend, with near
to above seasonal temperatures then expected Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Upper disturbance will track across the flight area this morning
and then eject quickly north to northeast out of the area during
the afternoon. As the disturbance moves through this morning, it
will continue to produce widespread snow across the mountains and
high valleys with scattered activity extending eastward onto the
plains, primarily along and west of the I-25 corridor. This
afternoon, conditions will improve rapidly from south to north
as the system departs.

KCOS and KPUB will be stuck in low clouds and flurries this
morning as the system moves across. Conditions should begin
improving at KPUB after 17z or so. Improvement at KCOS will be
bit later, generally after 18 to 19z. KALS will also see snow
showers move through at times this morning. However, it should
be the first site to improve, generally by around 16z or so.


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ068.



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