000
FXUS65 KPUB 171702
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED...OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  HI RES FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD COVER KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING FARTHER WEST THAN THAT BY
12Z...INTO CROWLEY...PORTIONS OF OTERO...AND ERN PUEBLO AND ERN EL PASO
COUNTIES.  THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E
THRU THE MORNING HOURS.

AN UPR TROF WL  MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY CAUSING
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC...S TO SW
WINDS WL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS DECREASING AND MIN
RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BELOW 15 PERCENT OVR ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...GIVEN THIS AREA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE WIND GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA
ALONG WITH THE RH VALUES BEING BELOW 15 PERCENT (EXCEPT AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS)...AND HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED AS LOCATIONS WHERE THE FUELS
ARE DRY AND CRITICAL.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF BACA
COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE TIME
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE TOO BRIEF TO ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT.

WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS THE LOW LEVELS
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THERE WL BE A DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE ERN BORDER.  THE NAM12 IS SHOWING DEW POINTS OVR
THE FAR SERN BORDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH.  WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE NAM...IT IS SHOWING
CAPE VALUES IN THAT AREA BEING 2000+ J/KG...HOWEVER WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CAP NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION.

TEMPS TODAY WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE AREA.  HIGHS WL
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS FOR PUEBLO AND COLO SPGS TODAY.  THE RECORD FOR
PUEBLO IS 94 SET IN 1964...AND FOR COLO SPGS IS 88 SET IN 1970

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. FUELS STATUS INDICATING GREEN UP UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SAVE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...WITH CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS STILL LOOKING GOOD. COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH SECONDARY ENERGY NOW TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL AREA WIDE NOW LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY...WITH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH DRY LINE BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
(25 KNTS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT KALS AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE ROCKY MTN AREA FIRE PREDICTION SERVICE UPDATED THE FUELS PAGE
VERY RECENTLY TO INCLUDE EL PASO COUNTY IN THE "YES" CATEGORY.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IT WAS "NO". FOR THIS REASON WE ARE
UPDATING THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE EL PASO COUNTY IN THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE THE NEW FCST OUT WITHIN THE
HOUR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222>225.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH