Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1017 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Dropped High Wind Warning for northern El Paso County. Winds have
dropped below warning levels. Gusts to 40 or even 50 mph will
continue at times through the day.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Numerous wind sensors at the USAF at lower elevations are
indicating winds above high wind criteria. Based on this have
issued a high wind warning until 11 am this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Winter Storm for the Continental Divide...

...Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions for the Southeast Plains...

Currently...

A warm night across the plains at 3 am as temperatures were in the
30s and 40s, with the warmest temps along the mtns/plains interface
where temps were in the mid 40s. Over the valleys temps were mainly
in the 20s and 30s with the mountains in the teens. Winds across the
region were light westerly across the plains with quite gusty (25 to
45 mph) southwest winds in the mtns. Radar was showing some light
snow over the west slope and a few obs were reporting light snow.

Sat pix were showing quite a bit of cloudiness over the state, with
wave clouds covering all of the plains.

Today and tonight...

A strong jet (170 mph) will move over the state during this period
and bring winter storm conditions to the higher terrain, especially
along the contdvd. Moisture aloft will continue to increase across
the state today and snow will gradually increase as the afternoon
progresses. Snow will ramp up this evening and become heavy at times
across the contdvd region, with the heaviest snow occurring across
the central mountains and the San Juans. With the strong jet in
place, winds over the mtns will be gusting in the 30 to 50 mph range
across all of the higher terrain, with the strongest winds across
the southern Sangre De Cristo mtns. Travel conditions in the mtns
will become difficult at best due to the heavy, wind driven snow
tonight. Widespread 8 to 16" amounts will be common across the San
Juans and Central mtns with lesser amounts across the La Garitas.
The Sangre will see 4 to 8 inches of snow. A few inches will be
possible across Pikes Peak and the Wets.

Winter weather hilites have been issued for most of the higher
terrain beginning early this evening and lasting into tomorrow.

For the plains, west to southwest winds will pick later this morning
and remain gusty this afternoon and tonight. The combination of low
humidity values and gusty southwest winds will bring near critical
fire weather conditions to the plains. The driest conditions will
occur across far southeast Colorado.

Given the downslope flow, temperatures will be quite warm today and
tonight across the valleys and plains. Expect max temps in the 60s
and 70s across the plains and 50s valleys. For tonight, min temps
will be in the 30s to low 40s across the plains and 20s and  30s
valleys. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 459 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Active weather pattern through the extended...

Thursday and Friday...As the upper trough sweeps across the region
Thursday and Friday, look for pcpn chances to spread across all of
the mts as well as the plains as a cold front drops south across the
Palmer Divide between 21z-00z Thursday afternoon. The heaviest
snowfall is forecast to last through midday Thursday before waning,
so have the winter weather highlight lasting until 18z. The upper
trough passes to the east Friday morning, so pcpn will come to an
end for all areas by midday. Another quick-moving upper shortwave
will bring a quick hit of snow to the central mts Friday night but
amounts should be light. Look for max temps in the 40s for the high
valleys and 50s to mid 60s for the plains on Thursday, then 40s for
most locations on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...Dry nw flow aloft across the region for
Saturday, transitioning to a more westerly direction through Sunday
as the next upper low pressure trough drops out of the Pacific NW.
Temps will rebound into the mid 40s to lower 50s for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains for Saturday, then
upper 50s to upper 60s for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...EC and GFS models are coming into more of an
agreement now for the start of the next work week, as the next upper
trough drops south across the western US. This will bring a return
of snow to the region late Sunday night through Tuesday with the mts
having a high probability of accumulating snow. A cold front early
Monday morning, coupled with increasing cloud cover, should cool
temps into the mid 40s to mid 50s for Monday, then upper 30s to mid
40s for Tuesday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1017 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Synopsis:
A strong jet streak is making its way over the region for this
forecast period. Mountain waves have been observed via satellite
imagery, so expect turbulent flow if traveling over the Rocky
Mountains.

KALS:

There will be a chance for snow as the jet axis crosses over KALS
overnight tonight, but the main regions of snow will be over the
higher topography. Overall, wind is the biggest forecast issue with
fluctuating wind speeds throughout the forecast period. VFR
conditions are expected.

KCOS:

Pikes peak and the passing jet streak will be the largest influence
for KCOS. There are split wind maximums that will occur to the south
of KCOS and north of KCOS. The forecast is for KCOS to tap into the
southern wind maximum. The flow switches to diurnal northerly
overnight, switching to southeasterly in the early afternoon
tomorrow. VFR conditions expected.

KPUB:

Gusting westerly winds are expected in the afternoon, calming to
prevailing westerly at 10 kts after the gusting ceases. VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ058-060-068.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ061-073-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY



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