Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Currently...

Quiet early morning over the fcst area at this time (3:00 am). Skies
were predominantly clear across the entire region. temps were in the
40s across the Plains and 30s in the Valleys...20s mtns.

Today...

We could see a strong storm or two over the region today. Latest
runs of the HRRR are showing some stronger convection developing
over N El Paso county by early to mid afternoon. Marginal shear will
be in place and about 500-1000 J/KG of cape are fcst. Mid lvl flow
over the region will be modest...with 25 kt due zonal flow and 40
knt flow at jet level. A weak perturbation or two is noted in the
mid lvl flow. These parameters will be sufficient for a marginal
severe weather event if storms initiate.

Over the remainder of the Plains convection will be more isolated.
Over the mtns...scattered storms are likely especially over the
contdvd and Pikes Peak region.

Temps today will be seasonable...with U60/70s in El Paso county and
70s most of the rest of the Plains...60s valleys. Sfc winds will be
light and diurnally driven.

Tonight...

Convection over the mtns will roll onto the Plains and move east
during the evening. Extent of convection should be isolated...and
should move out of the State by late evening. Can`t rule out a
marginally svr storm given the modest forcing that will be over the
Plains this evening. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Not much change to the forecast with active weather expected to
continue into the middle of the week. There are still some slight
model differences, but for the most part confidence is high in the
extended period.

Sunday and Monday...a weak upper level low is forecast to slowly
move out of Southern California into Arizona. This will spread
moist southwesterly flow aloft across Colorado with embedded
disturbances across the region. This will set the stage for shower
and thunderstorm development both days.

There will be the potential for severe thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon out near the Kansas border. It will all depend on where
the dryline sets up. Both the NAM and ECMWF have the dryline over
eastern Colorado, while the GFS progresses it east into western
Kansas by Sunday afternoon. For now will have a severe risk over
our far eastern counties Sunday afternoon where hail to an inch in
diameter and wind gust to 60 mph are possible. Elsewhere, expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains by late
morning and spread east across the I-25 corridor during the
afternoon. Lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will
all be possible.

There also appears to be a severe weather risk on Monday afternoon
as well. There is better model agreement with the dryline
developing over our far eastern counties. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely initiate in far eastern Colorado and
move into western Kansas by evening. Large hail and strong outflow
winds will be the primary threats near the Kansas border. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains
as well, which will spread east during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warm with 70s to mid 80s
for the lower elevations.

Tuesday through Wednesday...southern Colorado is forecast to see
increased chances for widespread precipitation and cooler
temperatures. An upper storm system is forecast to strengthen over
the northern Rockies and move into the northern plains during this
period. This will send a cold front south across the region by
Tuesday morning with moist northeasterly upslope flow developing
across eastern Colorado. This low level moisture and upslope flow
will combine with upper level energy dropping south around the
upper low to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the region, with the primary focus on the eastern mountains and
I-25 corridor. Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible.
This pattern will continue into Wednesday with continued
widespread precipitation expected.

Temperatures will be cooler behind the frontal system. Still think
model guidance is a bit too warm with 60s and lower 70s. Given the
700 mb temperatures dropping to the 0-2C range, would not be
surprised to see highs in the 50s. This will also drive snow
levels down to near 8 kft. Modest accumulations will be possible
over the eastern mountain peaks, with minor accumulations possible
down to 8 kft.

Thursday and Friday...the upper system over the northern plains
will continue east while high pressure builds over the Great
Basin. This high pressure will build east into Colorado by late in
the week. Drier and warmer conditions are expected with afternoon
and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms, which may move off
the higher terrain into the adjacent plains. Highs will rise back
into the 80s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

KCOS...could see some TSRA activity relatively early in the
day...mainly during the 20-22 utc time frame. Main concern would be
gusty outflow winds from tsra. Otherwise...expect vfr conditions at
KCOS next 24h.

KPUB...although I cannot rule out an isold -TSRA this afternoon...I
expect VFR conditions at the taf site next 24h.

KALS...similar to KPUB...an isold -TSRA cannot be ruled out this
afternoon...otherwise expect VFR conditions next 24h.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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