Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 051734
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

CURRENTLY...

LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIF.
MEANWHILE...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE OF CO. IN BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS...QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVER THE
IMMEDIATE FCST AREA...SOME THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED. RADAR WAS CLEAR OF
PRECIP ECHOES (BUT LOTS OF BIOLOGICAL CRITTERS WERE NOTED IN THE
CLEAR AIR RETURNS FROM ALL OF THE HIGH PLAINS RADARS (MILLER
MOTHS STARTING  THEIR MIGRATION TOWARDS THE MTNS??)). TEMPS AT 3 AM
WERE MILD ..WITH U40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE PLAINS...AND 20S-30S
AND 40S OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

TODAY...

WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN THUNDER ACROSS THE MTNS TODAY AS MOISTURE
IN ADVANCE OF THE CALIF LOW MOVES OUR WAY. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY WARM
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER
PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONTDVD BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE REST
OF THE HIGHER TRRN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SOME GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E KIOWA COUNTY.

WITH VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE REGION...SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TRRN
WILL BE MELTING RELATIVELY QUICKLY. STREAMFLOWS IN THE MTNS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE.

TONIGHT...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MTNS...AND WE WILL SEE A
GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TRRN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CONTDVD...THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY OVER THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH WINDS
TAKING ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD. OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...S TO SE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK
UP OVER THE MTN PEAKS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARDS OUR REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
TREND TOWARD THE NORTHERN ECMWF FOR THE STORM TRACK THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO UTAH DURING THIS PERIOD...FORCING AN
UPPER RIDGE OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FUELS ARE THE MAIN
QUESTION...WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...WILL
THEY BE CRITICAL. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH OUTDOOR BURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW SOLUTIONS BRING ISOLATED STORMS OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS COLORADO. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION...AND KANSAS BORDER. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS...WITH THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A BOUNDARY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND A DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON BOUNDARY POSITIONS...WITH THE LATEST GFS
DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER WEST. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
40S...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID...ONE OR TWO STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...AND ALSO ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE DETAILS COME INTO VIEW. IN ADDITION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG WINDS AND MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE FOLLOWED A MORE
NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WITH THE MAIN LOW AND A TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS
COLORADO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND ACROSS COLORADO. BUT
GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MUCH DRIER THAN A FEW RUNS AGO. THE AREA WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH 60S AND
70S FOR HIGHS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM
WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 10 KFT. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW AND DRIER WARMER CONDITIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURRE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVENING A THUNDER SHOWER ACROSS
THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AT TERMINALS WITH BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



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