Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Pretty quiet day expected before the next storm system moves in. Dry
SW flow will override the area, and should keep most if not all of
the CWA dry and warm, with temps a few degrees above average. Cannot
rule out an isolated afternoon shower over the higher peaks, but it
will be a very low probability. Breezy conditions and very low RH
will lead to near critical to critical fire wx conditions this
afternoon...but as previously noted the fuel status precludes any
Red Flag issuance due to the ongoing greenup.

Tonight...the upstream storm system will begin moving into the
Desert SW, and by early Thu morning could already start to see
some convection develop over the mountains and western portions of
the CWA. Plains should stay dry until a bit later on Thu, however.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

An active wx period is anticipated as a small closed low moves over
the region Thursday into Friday. This system has the potential to
bring locally heavy snow to the higher elevations of the
mountains...steady rain to the Pikes Peak region Thursday afternoon
into early Friday...and possibly severe weather to parts of the
plains on Thursday. The Memorial Day weekend looks Ok with just
isolated TSRA.

Thursday and Friday

...Severe Weather Potential...

By 12Z Thursday...closed low will be located over northeast AZ...and
it is forecast to move east-northeast towards the region. A surface
low is forecast to spin up over the se Plains. A well defined
boundary is forecast to lie from the surface low and into KS
during the afternoon time period Thursday. To the north of this
boundary east-northeast winds and relatively high dewpoints will
be noted. S of the boundary...dry s-sw sfc winds are likely. Cold
air aloft will be advecting in as the closed low moves
closer...and this will allow lapse rates to approach dry adiabatic
values during the afternoon. Deep shear is forecast to be rather
strong...40 kts. The boundary will act as a focusing mechanism
for the development of severe thunderstorms. Given the degree of
CAPE and Shear...large hail...damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes may occur. At this time the boundary is forecast to lie
generally along and to the north of the US-50 corridor. If this
boundary and the associated sfc low should develop farther
north...then the threat of severe weather over the region would be
much less as dry s-sw sfc winds would occur over the plains. As of
06 utc...SPC has areas generally along and N of highway 50 in
marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk just north of
the CWA.

The threat of strong storms Friday is very low as much cooler air
will be over the region.

...Snow in the mtns...

With temps cooling aloft...the temperature profiles across the
higher mtns will support snow. The heaviest precipitation amounts are
noted over the Pikes Peak region and the S mtns. Since this will
be a late season snow event...I went ahead and issued a winter
storm watch for the top of Pike Peak. A foot or more of heavy wet
snow will be possible starting later Thursday into Friday. Lesser
amounts will be possible across the rest of the mtn tops.

People going into the mtns...especially above ~11000 feet...should
be prepared for winter weather conditions. The heaviest snow will
likely fall Thursday night into Friday morning.

...Steady precip in the Pikes Peak region...

Given the orientation and movement of the relatively small mid lvl
circulation center...the Pikes Peak region is likely going to see
the highest QPF with this system as favorable upslope (700 mb NE
winds of 20 to 35 kts) impinge on the eastern slopes. All
guidance show the QPF max over this region...although individual
models vary. Precip will likely develop Thursday afternoon and
last into Friday. It is possible that the greater Pikes Peak
region could see an inch or so of rain with this event (with snow
at highest elevations). This heavier precip may extend southward
across the eastern slopes of the Southern mountains...especially
the wet mtns. The QPF max will be strongly dependent on the track
of the mid lvl closed low

As for flash flooding potential over the burn scars...the threat
will be there. The best time for heavier downburst rainfall will
occur during the midday THU time period. By later in the day Thu and
into FRI..I expect the precip to be more steady and not as intense.

Memorial Day Weekend...

Flow aloft will transition to generally light southwesterly during
the holiday weekend. Overall I expect isolated to scattered
showers/tsra in the afternoon in the mtns with more isolated
activity on the plains during the late afternoon and evening. Max
temps will return to seasonable values.

Later next week...

Ridge builds aloft with isold/scattered tsra during the afternoon
and evening. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Generally VFR across flight area next 24 hours. There could be
some spotty convection around during the afternoon and evening
hours, mainly over the mountains and Palmer Divide but most areas
she remain dry. Lightning and erratic wind gusts to around 50 mph
would be the primary threats from any storms that might develop

Weather pattern starts to turn more active late tomorrow morning,
after about 15Z, when showers and storms should start to develop
over the mountains west of I-25 in advance of an incoming system.
Areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions will begin to develop over
the mountains.

For the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites, conditions should remain VFR
through 18Z Thursday. However, MVFR, IFR and LIFR may be looming
shortly after 18Z at KCOS, and by 21z at KPUB.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for COZ082.



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