Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT


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