Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 272136 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE INTO SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM...

UPPER LOW OVER NV AND CEN/SRN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL EASTWARD
MARCH ACROSS NV/WRN UT ON SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO. DEW
POINTS TODAY HAVE INCREASED AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF
YESTERDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH UPPER
FORCING IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS UT/AZ...ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME OF THE CELLS HAVE BEEN ON THE MODERATE TO
STRONG SIDE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE.  WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH THREAT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY HIT OR MISS AT THIS POINT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THEN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AS THE NEXT LOBE
OF ENERGY LIFTS UP TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS 12Z SUN.
TYPICALLY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LACKS THE INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND LARGER SCALE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER QPF
MAXIMA TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND RAIN GAGES CLOSELY OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST FORK BURN
COMPLEX.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING.  DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE PIKE PEAK REGION HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM LOOKS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...A FEW OF WHICH WILL
BE SPILLING ACROSS THE VALLEYS INTO THE SANGRES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.  BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE IN THE MORNING AS LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CO BY 18Z.  HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...ANOTHER ROUND OF
FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE...AND WE MAY BE DEALING
WITH FOG/STRATUS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.  WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOME...BUT IF WE GET
SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON...MARGINAL CAPE VALUES AND
DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ADJACENT VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY INCREASE FOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX...THOUGH THE
MORNING TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY VIRTUE OF
SOME MINOR COOLING ALOFT. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCREASE
SOME...WITH GENERALLY 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST AND UNABLE TO AID IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...CAPE VALUES ARE ONLY A MEAGER FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SO THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE
EJECTION OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES...WITH THE 12Z GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND THE 12Z NAM REMAINS
THE SLOWEST...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS BACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BY 00Z TUE. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM POSES SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED TO MOVE INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN MORE STRONGLY BACKED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WITH THE NAM INDICATING CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
SE PLAINS LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE AS THE GFS HAS
CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS EARLY MON AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CAPE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
SHEAR AND UVV WITH THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...TO
SUPPORT SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LIMITING FACTOR BEING HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED.

AT ANY RATE...WITH THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE AND SUBSIDENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POSSIBLE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S
ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS...SAVE A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CONTDVD. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD AGAIN APPROACH AOB FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN SLOW BUILDS EAST.

$$

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCOS AND KPUB REMAINING DRY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF VCTS NEAR THE
TERMINAL...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS PROBABILITY FROM 23Z TO 01-02Z.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MVFR STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH KALS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VCTS AT THE
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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