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000
FXUS65 KPUB 221026
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Very well-defined short wave trough pushing eastward across southern
Colorado this morning, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms continuing across the eastern half of the region as of
10z. Satellite extrapolation and various mesoscale models suggest
precip will end in the 12z-15z period as wave pushes east of the
area, and will taper off pops from nw to se through the morning,
leaving only a few sprinkles lingering over the mts and near the NM
border by 18z. Suspect convection will be very slow to re-fire this
afternoon, with weak subsidence behind departing wave and rather
cool/stable atmosphere in place across the region. By late afternoon
and into the evening, upward motion increases ahead of next wave
dropping south through the Rockies, and expect another round of
fairly widespread -shra/-tsra to spread from north to south across
the area in the 00z-09z time frame. SWODY1 has marginal risk into
the far sern plains this afternoon and evening, though suspect risk
during the day will be rather low as air mass will take time to
destabilize. Better threat may come this evening as frontal boundary
comes south and lift increases, though model CAPEs never get much
above 500 J/KG as deeper moisture/instability stay farther south in
TX. Pool of rain cooled air behind departing wave should suppress
max temps somewhat, with readings staying generally at or below
70f.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday...Northerly flow aloft across the region early
Tuesday becomes more northwest and moderates Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as short wave ridging builds into the state. Flow aloft
becomes more westerly into Wedensday night, as the ridge is pushed
east ahead of an upper trough digging into the Northern Tier of
States.

Latest models continue to indicate one last embedded short wave
digging across the area early Tuesday morning, keeping slight
chances of showers across the southeastern mountains and adjacent
plains Tuesday morning. Subsidence is noted across the region into
the afternoon, though can`t rule out a few possible showers across
the higher terrain, with any convection that can develop in the
afternoon quickly diminishing early Tuesday evening. Passing wave
will send another cold front and gusty northerly winds of 15 to
30 mph across the Eastern Plains through the day, with highs below
seasonal levels in the 50s to mid 60s across the area. Warmer and
drier weather still on tap for Wednesday under the building
ridge, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s expected across the
lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.


Thursday-Sunday...The broad upper trough across the Northern Tier is
progged to slowly translate east across the Rockies and into the
Upper Midwest into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. The passing
system looks to send occasional short waves and fronts across the
area through the period, keeping daily chances of showers and storms
across all of south central and southeast Colorado through the
period. At and above seasonal temperatures across the area on
Thursday look to cool to at or slightly below average levels into
the Holiday Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

At KALS...VFR today and tonight with a low chance of -shra overnight
as next wave comes through.

At KPUB and KCOS...still some patchy MVFR cigs through 12z-14z, as
last wave of showers comes off the mountains onto the plains. Once
precip ends 12z-15z, expect a period of VFR at all TAF sites until
late afternoon, before another round of -shra and -tsra bring back
MVFR/brief IFR conditions along and east of the mountains from 00z-
09z.

Mountains will likely be obscured at times due to showers and
low clouds this morning, with brief improvement late morning into
the afternoon before next round of precip moves through late this
afternoon and tonight, bringing back widespread obscuration of the
higher terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN