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000
FXUS65 KPUB 090513
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

RESIDUAL MSTR OVR THE AREA AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN CO...BUT WL NOT LEAD TO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AND SHOULD QUICKLY END EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT PCPN
AND MELTING SNOW...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPR LEVEL RIDGING WL OCCUR OVR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND 700MB
TEMPS WL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 12 DEG C ACRS THE AREA...LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN.  TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH 15-20 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

...SPRING WEATHER FOR MONDAY...
...WINTER RETURNS ON TUESDAY...

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED IS A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THOUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN A
BANE ON SNOW POTENTIAL E OF THE MTS ALL WINTER LONG CONTINUES TO
REAR ITS HEAD. IT HAS BEEN A RECURRING THEME TO SEE THE RIDGE
PREVENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM DIGGING TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NRN NM. THIS SYSTEM HAS SIMILAR
CHARACTERISTICS TO YESTERDAY`S STORM...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE THE
SAME QPF POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN MTS.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY AS WRLY FLOW PICKS UP ALOFT.
GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES AT KPUB...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF
REACH...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S LOOK LIKE A BETTER BET. WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT WITH THE RECENT PRECIP FIRE WX
DANGER SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WILL SEE PRECIP SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE CONTDVD
MON EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM LOW MOVES INTO NW CO-SW WY.

WILL THEN SEE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF MDT PRECIP ON TUE...AS A COLD
FRONT CHARGES SWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY MID DAY. WILL LIKELY
AGAIN SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER...IN THE MINUS 10 TO MINUS 13 RANGE AT H7...SO
EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THE PRECIP WILL NOT BE
THE HEAVY WET DENDRITES OF THE LAST EVENT. SO...COULD ACTUALLY BE A
BETTER SNOWFALL FOR THE I-25 AREA DESPITE THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED.
BUT BASED ON CURRENT PROGS ACCUMS AT THIS POINT LOOK PRETTY
LIGHT...IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND NOT A HUGE AMOUNT
MORE FOR THE MTS.

BY WED MORNING THE UPPER LOW BECOMES ORPHANED TO OUR SW...AND BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LAG THE DYING UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NRN AZ AND
THEN NRN NM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
WITH THE SYSTEM...WHICH LOOK REASONABLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
ADDITIONAL QPF WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS STORM. MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE MTS BUT THE LOWLANDS SHOULD STAY DRY WED-THU...AND TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BACK TO THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN DEVELOP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EC IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NW. WILL LEAVE IN THE LOW
ENSEMBLE POPS FOR THIS LATE PERIOD FOR NOW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE 3 MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE