Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OBS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE SEASONABLE (AND POSSIBLY
WETTER) NEXT WEEK...

UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE L/M80S THESE THREE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT COOLER WX SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD. THESE VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RUN AOA 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS FOR FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AT OR AROUND CRITICAL
VALUES ON THESE 3 DAYS BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FRI AND
SAT...BUT MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN ALONG
THE RATON MESA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS A MUCH QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. FOR NOW I
LEANED THE NDFD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE AND HAVE MORE
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY...ALL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP WITH
THE SOUTHERN MTNS MAKING OUT PRETTY WELL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN ONLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP.

TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNING MAY BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

AS FOR THE FCST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE COULD NOT
BE MORE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE. THE EC HAS A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE THE PAC WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMTN WEST. BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS/RIDGES TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE CONUS VARY...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
DISCREPANCIES. FOR NOW I HAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW



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