Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 182146
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
346 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...WARMER AND DRIER BUT STILL STORMS AROUND...

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION HAS GONE DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF.
AVAILABLE WATER EARLIER IN THE WEEK WAS GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
NOW THE AVAILABLE WATER IS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND MOSTLY
IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. SO...WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
PRETTY LOW.  WITH THE HOTTER AND DRIER AIR MASS...THE CONCERNS ARE
MORE ALONG THE LINES AND STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD
WRAP UP PRETTY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...MUCH THE SAME SET UP.  HOWEVER...SOME MODEL RUNS...
INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  IN THE MODELS...IT
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...COUPLED
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE...AND ALSO A BIT OF A DRY LINE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  ALL OF THESE THINGS
TOGETHER MAY PUSH UP THE THUNDERSTORMS ODDS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE DRY LINE...AND ALSO OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES...

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
INCREASED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. GRIDS
HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
A LOCAL DOWNPOUR...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. FURTHER EAST...LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER THE PLAINS
AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...AND DO NOT SEE ANY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS...OR
DRIFT OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH STORMS ON THE
PLAINS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO HOT OVER
THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ON THE
PLAINS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME STORMS. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WILL BE LESS THAN ON SUNDAY. WARM TO HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 100 ON THE PLAINS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
COLORADO...APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

GENERALLY VFR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE ISOLD TSRA AROUND ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KCOS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS. MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR
TOMORROW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW


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