Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270923
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ONE MORE DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS BEFORE WE RETURN TO A MORE
SEASONABLE FALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY GIVEN A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND H7
TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.

HAVE CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE CONTDVD...WHICH
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVE. SINCE THE STRONG DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE INCHING CLOSER TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SCT STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE DVD...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER TOT HE E. BUT THE STRONGEST CELLS
SHOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE BURN SCARS...BUT MAIN FLOODING THREAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO UT ON SUNDAY. THE ERN PLAINS WILL
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS MONDAYS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THIS FEATURE COMING IN AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. RUN TO
RUN OF ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND LLVL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE (50+ DWPTS). MOST GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS SHOWING A BAND OF 1 TO 2 OVER THE
GREATER CO/KS BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE VALUES ARE STILL
MODEST...BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT...WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE 750-1500
J/KG RANGE. ONE FEATURE THAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS IS THAT THE SFC WINDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED TO BE
`BACKED` (SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY)  OVER THE FAR EAST
PLAINS...INDICATING THE LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED. HODOGRAPHS
ARE PRIMARILY STRAIGHT LINE ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
NOTED IN THE LOWER LVLS. WHAT I EXPECT WILL HAPPEN THIS DAY IS
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO KS. GIVEN THE
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN INCREASE THE LLVL MOISTURE AND DECREASE
THE LCLS. SPC HAS STARTED TO RECOGNIZE THE THREAT BUT ARE STILL
RIGHTFULLY CONCERNED ABOUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. I ANTICIPATE
OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE PUT IN SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
UPDATES. I DID NOT MENTION SVR IN THE NDFD...BUT IF THE THREAT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THEN SVR WILL LIKELY BE MENTIONED IN LATER
UPDATES. WILL PLAY UP THE SVR THREAT OVER THE FAR E PLAINS IN THIS
MORNINGS HWO PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...SUNDAY WE WILL SEE INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG TE CONTDVD...AND TRAINING CELLS
OVER THE BURN SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY AND THE CHALK BLUFF AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE WILL BE INCREASED TS
ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE MTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF THE CONTDVD.
AN ISOLD TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THE
PROB OF IT AFFECTING KALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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