Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Windy Today - DO NOT BURN...


Winds already cranking early this morning on and around the east
slopes of the mtns and mtn tops. At 3 am, Monarch was gusting to 50+
mph, Cheyenne Mtn Air Station was gusting to 45 mph and Walsenburg
was around 50 mph. Gusty winds were also being observed across the
San Juans. With the downslope flow ongoing east of the mtns, temps
were very warm for this time of the night as readings were well into
the 60s with temps near 70 vicinity Colorado City. Elsewhere across
the plains, temps were in the 50s to L60s. Valleys were in the 40s
and 50s. Well defined wave cloud signatures were noted in the new
GOES 16 water vapor imagery products.


A windy day is in store for most of the area, with the gap flow
areas (Canon City to Pueblo, Mosca Pass to Walsenburg) experiencing
the brunt of the winds. All of the mtns and high valleys will also
be windy today. Most of the plains will be gusty, although areas
south of US-50 generally east of the I-25 corridor will not see much
in the way of winds today.

It will be very warm today on the plains with 80s most locations.
the far eastern plains may see temps approaching 90F.

A cold front will begin to move across the plains late this

As for precip, it will be dry today except for the contdvd where
rain and snow showers will be possible. Most of the precip will
occur across the central mtns, mainly N of Cottonwood Pass.

As for fire weather, the reason why a Red Flag Warning is not in
effect is that fuels are considered "wet". If fuels were dry then a
Red Flag Warning would be in place. Note that SPC does NOT have the
area listed as ELEVATED or CRITICAL in their DAY 1 Fire Weather
Outlook product. Nonetheless, burning today is STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
Grassy areas which have not greened up all that well yet will be
susceptible to extreme fire behavior.


Northeast winds will develop over the plains tonight bringing cooler
and moister air back into the region. Low temperatures will be in
the 40s across the plains with 30s in the valleys/20s mtns. Snow
showers over the c mtns will likely come to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Thursday through Saturday...East to southeast sfc flow is expected
to develop across the eastern plains Thu morning, allowing
convection to break out along the eastern mts and I-25 corridor by
the aftn. Meanwhile, long range models continue to indicate that an
upper low pressure system drops down out of the Pacific NW on Thu,
crossing Colorado early Fri, then exiting to the east late Fri
night. Both the GFS and EC models have now come into line on the
placement of the upper low, and still show a good shot of pcpn for
much of the eastern plains late Thu night through Fri. However, the
NAM is much more pessimistic with QPF on Fri. Hopefully, the GFS and
EC will be closer to the truth so the region receives more
beneficial moisture. Activity will then start to taper off from west
to east Fri night and Sat morn as the upper low pulls off to the
east, and wrap-around flow will produce brisk northerly winds for
the eastern plains, as well as cooler temps. A secondary piece of
energy will allow isolated showers to linger over the mts through
the day Sat, Expect max temps in the 60s to around 70F on Thu, then
in the 50s to around 60F for Fri and Sat. The current max temp grid
for Fri may have to be cooled about 10 degrees, and will depend on
how far south the upper low dives through the day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Latest model runs indicate temporary
ridging for Sun, then a fast-moving shortwave that passes to the
north for Mon which is a bit further north than previously
anticipated. This will produce a couple of dry days with warming
temps, with 60s and 70s on Sun, then 70s to lower 80s for Mon. A
stronger, deeper low pressure trough then nears the region for Tue,
bringing showers back to the higher terrain. At this point,
increasing westerly flow will continue warm temps across the
forecast area, with highs in the upper 60s to right around 80F for
the plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

It will be windy at all taf sites today. Westerly winds of 20 to 35
knots will be common. winds will decrease this evening all areas.
Winds will become northeasterly at KCOS and KPUB later this evening
as a cool front moves across the plains.

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at the KCOS,




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