Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231726 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Upper level trough over nrn AZ early this morning will lift into
wrn CO by late afternoon, then drift slowly eastward across the
state overnight. Given fairly vigorous upward motion with the trough
and abundant mid level moisture, expect widespread convection over
the mountains, with focus for heavier rain over the swrn mts early
in the day shifting northward into the central mountains by late
afternoon/early evening. Considered a flash flood watch for wrn
portions of the area, but with best forcing along and west of the
Continental Divide and low level dewpoints rather marginal (30s to
mid 40s currently), will hold off on issuance at this time. Did
increase pops and qpf over most wrn mt and interior valley zones,
with heaviest rain over highest mountain zones along the divide.
Over the eastern mountains and plains, cold front drops south
through the area during the day, ending up near the Arkansas River
around 00z, before shifting southward into nrn NM by 12z Wed. Air
mass ahead of and behind the boundary looks fairly dry, with
dewpoints forecast to remain in the 30s/40s on the plains and I25
corridor before gradually creeping upward through the 40s beginning
this evening. Will keep pops in the isolated category away from the
mountains during the day, then raise them this evening and overnight
as wrn/central CO convection shifts eastward. Suppose we could see
some pockets of heavy rain along and west of I25 this evening,
though rather modest instability and weak low level wind field
suggests a -shra/weak -tsra regime rather than widespread deep
convection. With upper trough still across the region overnight,
will keep at least low pops going past midnight into early Wed
morning. Early sun plus late arriving cold front should equal
another warm to hot day across the plains, while mountains begin to
cool slightly as clouds and precip increase.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

...Wet weather to continue through the week...

A persistent trough over the Nrn Rockies, along with high pressure
over the southeast US, will keep a flow of monsoonal moisture
streaming northward through NM into srn Colorado. This will keep an
active storm pattern going through the week and possibly the
weekend. Area burn scars will continue to be the primary concern with
the potential for heavy rainfall each day.

Wednesday...may be too stable for widespread strong storms as a
result of overnight convection and lingering clouds/precip Wed
morning. noted in earlier AFD there will be a pretty
robust disturbance moving through Wed afternoon, which should help
spark sct to nmrs showers and storms over the mountains. Primary
focus east of the mts will be south of Hgwy 50, over the Spanish
Peaks region and Raton Mesa. A couple storms there and into Baca
County could be on the strong to severe side. Temps should be on the
cool side of average, with highs in the 70s over the Plains and 60s
for the high valleys. Expect storms to linger through Wed night over
the eastern Plains with continued forcing from the trough moving

Thursday...could be the best chance for any svr wx. Models are
currently showing only about 1000 j/kg of CAPE over the southern
Front Range and I-25...but may be slightly underestimating llvl
moisture given the antecedent wet conditions. There will be another
pronounced short wave moving into the Central Rockies by mid-
afternoon. This will contribute to bulk shear of about 30 kts,
enough for some organized convection. The threat for svr should be
greatest over the Pikes Peak Region and Palmer Dvd as storms linger
into Thu evening.

Friday into the weekend...will see the trough begin to become a bit
less amplified, but should still see weakening SW flow aloft
bringing more moisture into southern Colorado. Temps should
gradually be on the rise, with highs near 90 degrees by the latter
part of the weekend and possibly higher as we get into next week.
storm coverage should gradually diminish, with rather dry conditions
possible by late in the period, as high pressure strengthens over
southern Colorado and New Mexico. So, this rainy period will be a
welcome prelude to possible dry and breezy conditions next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A monsoon disturbance will rotate north across the flight area
today. This will bring another round of afternoon and even showers
and thunderstorms to the district. Primary storm threats will
include lightning, erratic thunderstorm outflow winds, heavy rain
and possibly small hail. Conditions will start out VFR in most
areas at 18Z with increasing areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR
conditions developing in precipitation as the afternoon
progresses. Models keep some activity going well into the evening
across the plains, possibly not dissipating until after 06z. KCOS,
KPUB and KALS will all see a chance for storms to be at or near
the terminals today, primarily after 20z.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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