Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Flat upper ridge rebuilding over the region today, bringing lighter
winds and continued mild temps to most locations. Overnight, rather
diffuse lee surface trough forms along the I-25 corridor as upper
level flow bends back to the southwest ahead of trough pushing
eastward through the western U.S. Should be just enough wind to keep
mins mild over eastern mountains slopes, with seasonably cool
readings elsewhere. On Monday, ridge shifts east with increasing
upper level moisture west of the Continental Divide as upper trough
continues to move into the Great Basin. Should be just enough
moisture and instability along and west of the divide for some
isolated convection, with perhaps a rumble of thunder as LIs fall
toward zero for a time in the afternoon. With slightly deeper mixing
and a subtle increase in mid level temps, maxes should creep upward
a few degf, though thickening cirrus shield may limit the warm-up,
especially over the mts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period. Temperatures will remain well above normal for the next
several days for Southern Colorado along with mostly dry conditions.

Monday night through upper level disturbance will move
moving east across Southern Colorado.  Expect scattered showers to
be ongoing along the Continental Divide during the evening, and
spread east into the Eastern Mountains and Palmer Divide through the
overnight hours.  The upper disturbance will continue east on
Tuesday moving into Kansas, while high pressure builds over Utah.
Expect shower to dissipate by Tuesday evening with dry conditions
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Snow levels will remain high
with 2 to 4 inches possible on the Continental Divide above 12 kft
through this period.  Temperatures will be warm with upper 70s to
lower 80s across the plains.

Wednesday through Friday...high pressure is forecast to build across
Colorado.  Dry conditions are forecast to prevail across the region.
Temperatures will be coolest on Wednesday, with generally mid to
upper 70s, before warming back up into the lower 80s Thursday and

Saturday through Sunday...models are coming into agreement with an
upper disturbance moving out of Pacific Northwest and into the
Northern Rockies.  This may bring an increased chance for showers to
the Continental Divide this weekend, but with the system passing so
far north, it may have very little impact on much of Southern
Colorado.  Temperatures may be slight cooler with 70s across the
plains.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions at all terminals the next 24 hrs. Winds will follow
typical diurnal cycle at all sites. Over the mts, isolated
-shra/-tsra possible Mon afternoon, mainly along the ContDvd.




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