Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 252039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
239 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...ONE MORE WARM DAY...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 100 PM MDT. SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES AND FLIRT WITH SOME RECORDS BEFORE THINGS START TO COOL
DOWN.

UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN UT...AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE CO BORDER. BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER THE CONTDVD...AND BY MIDNIGHT OR SO SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME SCT-NMRS SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE DVD. BEST SHOT
AT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 12-18Z SUN MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...AND EVEN THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...AN INCH OR SO. THE ERN
MTS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AGAIN AND WITH THE WRLY FLOW TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TWO WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM: THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LEESIDE
WINDS TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND FIRE WX.

WITH THE MORE NRLY STORM TRACK...A STRONGER WRLY JET WILL BE OVER
THE CO MTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
H7 WINDS NEARLY DUE W...AND IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SOME MODEL X-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STRONG REVERSE SHEAR OVER
THE SRN SANGRES SUN MORNING...WHILE THE OVERALL MT WAVE SIGNATURE
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME
LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THE HIGH
RES 00Z DATA TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD OR STRONGER
WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE FIRE WX ELEMENTS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
COULD SEE NR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND FARTHER N IN PUEBLO COUNTY IT WILL BE CLOSE. RIGHT
NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND
MARGINAL...SO WILL NOT BE HOISTING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS TONIGHT SINCE THE CURRENT
TREND IS FOR LOWER RH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WINDS LOOK TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH ONLY 15-25 MPH GUSTS FORECAST AT THIS TIME E OF
THE MTS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR CO.  PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CONTDVD...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...WHERE
A COUPLE OR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WL PROBABLY FALL. MON MORNING A
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THRU THE ERN CO PLAINS.  SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WL
PROBABLY CONTINUE OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLD PCPN
OVR THE PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY AREA AND THE PALMER DVD.  FOR MON
AFTERNOON THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS/MTNS SO WL LEAVE THAT IN THE
FORECAST.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...TEMPS ON MON WL BE MUCH COLDER THAN ON SUNDAY...BY ABOUT 20
DEGREES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  HIGHS MON WL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT...ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DRIES OUT IN THE EVENING
HOURS.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS OVR MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS.  IT LOOKS
LIKE LOW TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUE LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST
AREA.  HIGH TEMPS ON TUE LOOK EVEN COOLER THAN ON MON...WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES ON WED AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GREAT BASIN.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON WED...WITH AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS. THE UPR RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVR ERN UT ON THU...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST
AREA.  HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS ON THU.  FRI THE
UPR RIDGE MOVE OVR CO...RESULTING IN A LITTLE BIT WARMER WEATHER.
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SERN CO
PLAINS IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MSTR
AND A CHANCE FOR PCPN.  MEANWHILE...AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NV BY LATE IN THE DAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT OVR WRN PORTIONS OF CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 236 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN
WILL BE STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
MODT TB ALONG AND E OF THE RANGES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE ERN SLOPES AND I-25
CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE



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