Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251839
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1239 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT SATELLITE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LOWERED MORNING POPS DUE TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION. DECREASED
MORNING SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT REALITY. LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH KEEPING RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP TSRA MAINLY
ISOLATED AGAIN TODAY...WITH MOST STORMS BECOMING QUICKLY OUTFLOW
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER FROM THE SANGRES
EASTWARD...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE OLD
SURFACE FRONT MAY ENHANCE STORMS SOMEWHAT. BEST INSTABILITY AGAIN
ALONG THE KS BORDER AND ACROSS BACA/LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE. HEIGHTS FALL JUST SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...SO WILL NUDGE MAX TEMPS
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES...WHICH STILL KEEPS READINGS NEAR 100F OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN SLOWLY DIE...THOUGH LIKE THE PAST FEW EVENINGS A COUPLE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD MIDNIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO KS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...COOLING DOWN BY MID WEEK...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LOT...AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME COMBINES WITH AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE NAM
IN PARTICULAR IS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF N OF HGWY 50 AND E OF
I-25 SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS ALSO SHOWING A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR THE PLAINS...SO WE COULD SEE A DAY OF
ACTIVE WX WITH BOTH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WHERE AT KPUB WE
COULD AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO ERN OK AND THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...ALLOWING A BIT
MORE DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO WRN CO FROM THE DESERT SW. BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.

THEN...A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE INTER-MTN REGION
AND ON THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ON TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SRN FRONT
RANGE TUE EVE AND NIGHT. THE GFS IS PROGGING H7 TEMPS TO FALL
BELOW 10 DEG C BY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND DEPENDING ON
RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP WE COULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING OVER
THE ERN PLAINS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLE HELD IN THE 70S WED
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME MORE DRY AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...AND SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER WX TO OUR AREA.
THE LATEST GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO IT MAY NOT DRY OUT ENTIRELY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM A
POSITION CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT
MONSOON FLOW AROUND WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THIS WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRIMARY STORM CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING...ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SPOTTY SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH THREATS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE...FLOODING RAINS...AND HAIL TO AN INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER.
PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR KCOS AND KALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  WILL CARRY VCTS IN THE
FORECASTS FOR THESE 2 SITS BEGINNING AT 19 AND 20Z...RESPECTIVELY.
WILL KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR KPUB TODAY DUE ITS LOWER
ELEVATION AND GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE MOUNTAINS.  MUCH THE SAME
SCENARIO FOR ALL 3 SITES SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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