Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...GENERALLY IN THE 21Z
THROUGH 02Z TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/TS WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE


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