Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 221746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE


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