Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 100246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
846 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Issued at 845 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Updated the tonight portion of the forecast for current pcpn
trends and expected pops for the overnight over based on the
latest HRRR.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...A Little Less Storm Coverage This Evening...

A little less moisture covers the area this evening.  Total
Precipitable Water values estimated by satellite indicate generally
90-115 percent of average, down from 120-140 percent of average
yesterday at this time.  So this should decrease the overall storm
coverage.  However, there is still a shortwave making its way
eastward across the Rockies that is triggering storms at this time.
This shortwave will still manage to kick off some storms through the
evening.  High res models have things picking up during the evening,
particularly over the Pikes Peak Region and plains, possibly staying
active through late evening.  And, because there is more heat and
better shear today, a few of those cells could be on the strong to
possibly severe side during the evening hours.  The primary risks
with most storms this evening will be locally heavy rain, wind gusts
to around 50 mph and lightning.  However, a couple of storms across
the plains could produce quarters and 60 mph winds.  Overnight into
early Thursday, areas of low clouds and fog could develop over parts
of the area, particularly through the lower Arkansas River Valley.

For tomorrow, most of the day will be rather quiet with only
isolated storm activity.  However, late in the day, a boundary will
drop south to near the Palmer Divide.  This boundary will be the
focus for potential severe weather into Thursday evening.  The Storm
Prediction Center currently has a large portion of the plains under
a slight risk for severe weather Thursday.  This makes perfect sense
in light of the boundary that is expected to move through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Thursday night-Friday night...Upper high across the Southern Rockies
and into the Desert Southwest keeps west to northwest flow aloft
across the region. Latest models continue to indicate an embedded
shortwave translating across the Northern Rockies and into the
Northern High Plains Thursday afternoon, which sends a cold front
across the Eastern Plains of Colorado Thursday evening and night.
With low level moisture pooling along and behind the front, the
boundary will be a focus for convection through the evening. Models
are indicating CAPES of 1000-1500 j/kg and shears in excess of 40
kts across the eastern plains, which would support the development of
supercell thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds across much of the southeastern plains tomorrow
evening. Models indicating storms congealing into an MCS across the
far southeast plains late tomorrow night, which then continues into
southwestern Kansas through early Friday morning. Will see moist
upslope flow across the eastern Colorado through the day Friday,
with morning stratus and patchy fog likely keeping the plains too
stable through the afternoon. Further west, expecting another round
of afternoon and evening storms to fire, with storms moving east
southeast across the immediate adjacent plains through the late
afternoon and evening, with a few possible showers surviving across
the far southeast plains through the late evening. Will again have
to watch for the potential for flash flooding on Friday, especially
over and near area burn scars, with possible training of storms.
Temperatures through this period will remain below seasonal levels.

Saturday-Wedensday...Models continue to suggest the cool northwest
flow pattern will persist into early next week, with several more
embedded waves digging across the area. Pattern will remain
favorable for daily convection, though hard to time features will
likely play a role in determining where convection and the heaviest
precipitation will occur. Temperatures look to slowly warm into
early next week, though will generally remain below seasonal levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Convection will tend to be less widespread this evening than last
evening as a little drier airmass covers the region. MVFR to LIFR
CIGS and VSBYS will be possible through areas of precip. Primary
storm threats will include heavy rain, wind gusts to around 50 mph,
pea size hail and lightning. Overnight tonight into early Thursday,
some areas of MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS could develop across the
plains, particularly through the lower Arkansas River Valley.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals could see storms at or near the
terminals this evening.  That threat could linger until around 3 or
4 UTC at KALS and to around 5 or 6 UTC at KCOS and KPUB.  Low clouds
and ceilings could possibly impact the KCOS and KPUB sites from
roughly 9 to 15 UTC, although this is not certain.

For tomorrow, storms will be pretty isolated for most of the day.
However, late in the day, a boundary will approach the Palmer Divide
from the north and then move south through the plains.  This will
lead to much more widespread storm coverage across the plains into
Thursday evening.




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