941
FXUS65 KPUB 021704
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected both today
  and Thursday, with the greatest coverage Thursday.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend and into next
  week.

- Isolated precipitation development over both the higher and
  lower terrain through the start of the weekend, with an
  increase in coverage early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Today: For midweek, another typical Summer day is in store for
south central and southeastern Colorado. The messy ridge that
has been in place, will continue to be sitting over the region.
While no major forcing is expected, diurnal upsloping will
develop during the afternoon hours. This upsloping, along with
stagnant moisture under the ridge, will allow for another round
of afternoon showers and storms, initially along the mountains
during the early afternoon hours, with some spillage across the
valleys by the late afternoon hours. While no severe weather is
anticipated, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, with the
most likely hazards being frequent lightning, outflow winds of
40-50 mph, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain from any
stronger storms. Outside of all of that, mostly clear skies
early will become partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon,
with light winds early becoming breezy around 15 to 20 mph by
the afternoon as well, particularly across the eastern plains.
Temperatures Wednesday will be warm though seasonal, with the
plains reaching into the upper 80s to mid 90s, the valleys into
the upper 70s to mid 80s, and the mountains into the 60s.

Tonight: Heading into Wednesday night, quiet weather returns
for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, the
ridge in place will start to push eastward, with southerly to
southwesterly flow increasing ahead of an approaching wave.
While no substantial increase in forcing is anticipated,
orographic forcing will start to rise in response to the uptick
in flow. Given all of that, an isolated shower or two will be
possible along the higher terrain given the increase in
orographics, though with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere.
Otherwise, clouds will steadily lessen overnight, with mostly
clear skies returning once again by Thursday morning, with
breezy winds becoming more light and variable around and less
than 10 mph, except across the far eastern plains, where winds
will remain slightly breezy still. As for temperatures, a mild
and near seasonal night is anticipated, with the plains cooling
into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s to low
50s, and the mountains into the 30s and mid 40s.

Tomorrow: Thursday brings an uptick in active weather for much
of south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned
wave will be passing over the region, bringing increased support
and forcing. Along with that, minor moisture advection
northward is expected in response to the passing wave. With the
increase in forcing and moisture, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to blossom along the higher
terrain during the early afternoon hours, and spread across the
valleys and adjacent plains by the late afternoon hours. Like
Wednesday, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, with
frequent lightning, outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and
periods of heavy rain being the anticipated hazards from any
stronger storms. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies early
will become partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon, with
light winds becoming breezy again during the afternoon hours,
with winds around 20-25 mph, especially across the plains.
Looking at temperatures, another hot but seasonal day is
expected, with the plains warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s,
the valleys into the upper 70s to mid 80s, and the mountains
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Upper trough anticipated to progress across the region at the
start of the period, lifting to the northeast on Friday with
some weak height rises aloft noted. This along with continued
drying across the region should limit precip development over
southern Colorado for the 4th. If anything develops it looks to
be rather isolated over the higher terrain and even more
isolated over the eastern plains. In this setup, should see
700mb temps rise, especially with deeper westerlies in place.
Did increase high temps slightly on Friday, though still staying
near or slightly above normal for this time of the year. By
Saturday, no real big changes anticipated as another day of
upper ridging and drying, bringing similar temps with limited
precip development.

By late in the weekend into early next week, should see ridge
flatten some and looking to usher in more energetic flow along
with some increased moisture. In this setup, will see similar
normal to slightly above normal temperatures persist. This looks
to bring some uptick in precip development to the area Sunday
and Monday. However, moving into the middle part of next week,
ridge looks to really establish itself over the western CONUS.
This setup would support additional warming along with a return
to more afternoon isolated to scattered precip development
during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through
the next 24 hours. Expect all thunderstorm activity to remain
west of the KALS this afternoon and evening, with no impacts to
the terminal. A few wind gusts near 20 kts are possible at KCOS
and KPUB this afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...MOZLEY