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000
FXUS65 KPUB 110355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
855 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

PULLED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

AFTER A LATE MORNING LULL...GUSTY WEST WINDS HAVE REAPPEARED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE...WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE ACADEMY SOUTH TO CANON CITY AND PUEBLO. TEMPS HAVE REALLY
SOARED WITH THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS HAVE BROKEN THE 50F MARK AS OF 21Z. COLD AIR
STILL LOCKED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS HAVE YET TO REACH
10F SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD PUT AN END TO GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS
SEASONABLY COLD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WHILE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN STUCK UNDERNEATH STRONG INVERSIONS AND FALL WELL
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY...THEN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH SLIPS EAST. WITH
LESS WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAX TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE OVER NON SNOW COVERED AREAS AS WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM TODAY...WHILE INVERSION OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR ANOTHER
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
THE REGION GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CA BAJA COAST WILL SLIDE ACROSS AZ ON THU...THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND CO THROUGH FRI.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER COLORADO...ALONG
WITH SOME BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPS FOR THE CWA ON THU. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY
WARM...BUT STILL THINK IT IS OVERDONE. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA A BIT...BUT REMAINED IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS OUT OF THE PAC NW
AND CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI...BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
TO THE HIGHER PEAKS FRI AFTN AND EVE. AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE E PLAINS FRI AFTN... KEEPING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE FOR SAT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND RIGHT
AROUND 40 F ON SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEST
WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 00Z...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN