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245
FXUS65 KPUB 231100
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
500 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cold front with accompanying showers and thunderstorms was in nern
CO as of 10z, and will drop south through the region this morning,
bringing a period of at least light rain to most of the eastern
mountains and plains through midday. Precip will diminish during the
afternoon as cool/stable air mass covers much of the area, and will
keep only some low pops for convection over the eastern mountains
from late afternoon and into the evening, as enough clearing may
develop here for some modest heating, leading to a few weak -tsra.
Clouds will continue to thicken this morning over eastern mountain
slopes and across the plains, with mostly cloudy skies lingering
into the evening, leading to very cool max temps, and a few
locations will end up nearly 30f cooler than Thu. Interior valleys
and western mountains will miss out on any precip, though at least
max temps will cool several degf versus Thursday`s numbers. Any
precip will end quickly this evening, though clouds may be slow to
clear over the east as moisture and weak upslope flow persists. Min
temps will be moderated somewhat by cloud cover, but should be
pleasantly cool most locations with even a few 30s over the higher
mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

It still appears that unsettled conditions in combination with
below to near seasonal later June temperatures should be noted
over the majority of the forecast district from Saturday into
Monday as adequate atmospheric moisture interacts with passing
upper disturbances and surface boundaries.

The potential still exists that locally heavy rain and strong to
potentially severe storms at times will be noted over portions of
the forecast district from this weekend into Monday evening as
localized capes/LI`s and mean layer shear values challenge 2000
J/kg/-6C and 60 knots respectively at times. WFO Pueblo will
monitor closely and issue hydro/severe weather products as needed.

A return to drier and warmer conditions is then expected from
Tuesday into at least early Thursday afternoon as varying degrees
of eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing dries the airmass
over the forecast district in advance of another moist
north-northeasterly surface surge impacting the region by later
Thursday.

The coolest temperatures during the longer term should be noted
this weekend with warmest temperatures anticipated from Tuesday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

At KCOS...-shra/-tsra in nern CO will drop south through the area
this morning, with window for precip from 12z until roughly 18z.
Cigs will fall into the MVFR range as precip develops, and SE winds
keeping lower cigs in place long after rain ends, with little
clearing expected until at least 06z tonight.

At KPUB...-shra and isolated -tsra will develop this morning,
continuing until 18z-19z. MVFR cigs will accompany the rainfall,
before improving to low VFR late this afternoon and this evening.

At KALS...VFR today and tonight as most convection will stay over
the mountains to the east of the terminal. Winds will be rather
erratic through the day, with a period of E-SE flow this morning
before SW winds return by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$