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000
FXUS65 KPUB 220525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Showers are expected to linger into the early morning hours and
have increased pops over most of the region. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

At 2 pm, ongoing convection across far southeast Colorado in eastern
Las Animas and Baca Counties.  Isolated showers across the mountains
and high valleys. Temperatures were in the 60s to lower 70s across
the plains and I-25 corridor, 50s and 60s high valleys and 40s and
50s mountains.

Tonight, ongoing convection will continue through the evening as
shortwave moves from eastern Utah into western Colorado by 06Z.
Moisture and weak instability will be limiting factors for any
thunder across much of the area, with the exception of far southeast
Colorado, where CAPE values are at or above 1000 J/KG and bulk shear
around 40 knots during the early evening. The SPC outlook for that
area in Las Animas and Baca Counties for strong and/or a couple
severe storms looks good. HRRR and NAM forecasts develop an MCS just
south and east of our area in the early evening. Shortwave trough
axis will still not clear the area before 12Z, so suspect weak
convection will continue through the overnight from the eastern
mountains to the Kansas border.

Monday, in the wake of the shortwave, upper flow will be from
northwest to southeast, and there will be some subsidence.  The next
shortwave is not forecast to start influencing southern Colorado
sensible weather until the evening, so will very weak instability
and dewpoints in the 30s to lower 40s, expect only isolated showers
in the lower elevations with more coverage over the mountains. High
temperatures will be similar to Sunday`s in advance of the next
shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Monday night and Tuesday...Brisk north to northwest flow aloft will
continue across the region through Tues, providing for continued
shower and storm chances, as well as cooler air. A shortwave late
Mon eve will drop south into the forecast area, bring the needed
dynamics for persistent convection through the evening hours as
well as a reinforcing push of cooler air. Shower and storm
activity is forecast to wane through the aftn hrs. Temps will be
cooler on Tue, with max readings in the 50s to upper 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Long range models are starting to come
into agreement on what will occur through the remainder of the week
and into next weekend. An upper ridge crosses the region on Wed,
producing dry conditions and warming temps. The ridge moves east on
Thu as an upper low crosses Canada and the northern Rockies. This
will produce westerly flow aloft across the Rockies for Fri through
Sun. Isolated aftn mt convection returns on Thu, then isolated
activity is forecast for all areas for Fri through Sun, tied to a
couple of shortwaves that will drop south across the state and bring
cooler air for the weekend. Temps are expected to warm back into the
70s for Wed, then 70s to lower 80s for Thu and Fri, then back down
into the 60s and 70s for Sat and Sun. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Several weak short waves will translate over the fcst region in
the northwesterly flow aloft during the next couple of days and
this will keep a threat of showers over the region. Brief periods
of mvfr will be possible at times...especially the rest of tonight
and later tomorrow evening. Winds will be light, mainly from a
northerly component. By tomorrow evening, a cold front will come
down the plains and winds will get gusty from the north at 20 to
30 knts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH