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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF SITES KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$