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575
FXUS65 KPUB 302105
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
305 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Combination of modest CAPE (400-800 J/KG) and weak upward motion
with passing wave finally producing some shallow convection across
the area as of 21z, though lightning loop suggests most vigorous
lift is still west of the continental divide over wrn CO. For the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, most mesoscale
models, especially the HRRR, develop relatively strong convection
over the eastern mountains, with heaviest precip over Teller County
and the Wet Mountains. Will keep high POPs over these areas through
late evening, with mainly isolated to low end scattered elsewhere.
Hayden burn scar will need to be monitored this evening, as main
storm threat will be some brief heavy rainfall. Precip tapers off to
just a few showers 05z-06z, with most areas dry by 09z. On Sat,
upper wave is east with weak ridge building, but just enough
lingering moisture for some isolated -tsra over the mountains in the
afternoon. Not much change in mid level temps, so expect maxes to
run within a few degf of today`s numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Models in better agreement through the extended period with a more
northerly storm track early next week. Ensembles still show a
significant spread, however, so uncertainty still exists.

Saturday night through Sunday...high pressure aloft is forecast to
build across Colorado and shift east into the central plains while
a strong low pressure system begins to move into the Great Basin.
A weak disturbance will be lifting northeast across Colorado
Saturday evening with showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
mountains, east into the Palmer Divide. This activity will
continue to lift northeast and dissipate overnight. By Sunday,
high pressure will dominate the region with dry, warm conditions
expected over southern Colorado.

Monday into Wednesday...the strong upper level low pressure center
is forecast to move into Utah, and lift northeast across Colorado
into the northern plains. As it does so, southwesterly flow aloft
will increase over Colorado, leading to an increased fire weather
potential for Monday into Tuesday across the plains. Winds on
Monday look to be quite strong, with gusts in excess of 35 mph
expected over the plains. Humidity values will be low as well
given the expected mixing and downslope component. This
combination will lead to the dangerous fire weather conditions for
the plains. Temperatures will be warm as well with highs in the
mid 80s for much of the lower elevations. A frontal boundary will
move east across Colorado Monday evening. Some models are
developing showers and thunderstorms along the boundary out near
the Kansas border. Lack of instability and moisture will likely
keep storms on the weaker side, and some models fail to produce
anything over our CWA. Winds will continue to be strong on Tuesday
across the region and humidity values will continue to be low.
Elevated fire weather concerns will remain across the plains. As
far as precipitation, models have converged on the northerly storm
track. This will likely limit showers and thunderstorms to the
central mountains, possibly east into the Palmer Divide Monday
into Wednesday. Colder air across the area will lower snow levels
down to around 8 kft, with a few inches possible, especially over
the continental divide. Temperatures will cool off on Tuesday and
Wednesday into the upper 60s to mid 70s, while overnight lows will
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday and Friday...broad northwest flow is expected to continue
through the end of the week with cooler and dry conditions over
southern Colorado. Overnight lows will be cool with mid to upper
30s across the plains and there could be patchy frost in the
mornings. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s to 70s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites tonight and Sat.
Convection over the mountains this afternoon will spread to lower
elevations late, and will include a VCTS at KCOS and KPUB after
about 22z-23z. Models continue to suggest fairly widespread storms
around KCOS 00z-03z, and will include a tempo group for tsra at the
terminal until about 03z. Expect -shra/-tsra over the mountains this
afternoon to persist into the evening, with areas of IFR cigs/vis
over most mountain ranges through 06z. On Sat, still some isolated
tsra over the high terrain in the afternoon, though CIGS/VIS should
improve as moisture levels decrease.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN