Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241139
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
439 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Unsettled weather continues over the next 24 hours with more snow
for the mountains...and rain and snow showers for the plains this
afternoon and evening...

Broad upper low with embedded disturbances continues to slowly move
eastward across northern CO and WY over the net 24 hours.  WV and IR
imagery shows another distinct shortwave rounding the base of the
trof into southwest CO attm which will shift eastward across the
area this morning.  Another trailing vort max is evident across
northern AZ.  Models bring this next wave into the southwest
mountains this morning suggesting another upswing in snow for the
Continental Divide...with the heaviest falling across the southwest
mountains initially.  As flow aloft becomes more northwesterly focus
will shift into the northwest mountains during the afternoon given
more favorable orographics.  Another 2 to 5 inches looks likely for
the higher elevations of the southwest and central mountains...with
1 to 3 for the lower adjacent valley locations. Although some drying
starts to work in during the afternoon...steep lapse rates and
sufficient residual moisture will lead to additional snow through
the afternoon.  Given the potential for travel impacts to continue
through today...have extended current highlights through 5 PM.

Meanwhile...isolated showers across the plains early this morning
will race off to the northeast and a cold front will surge through
the southeast plains late this morning through the afternoon.
Initial westerly winds ahead of the front should help temperatures
jump quickly this morning across southern areas...however CAA aloft
will result in temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday
for most areas. As the front drops southward should see a wind shift
from the north...and scattered snow showers spread into the Palmer
Divide this afternoon...then southward into the northern slopes of
the Raton Ridge during the evening in area of wrap round.  Have
adjusted pops upwards for these areas. Snow accumulations should
remain light...though 1 to 2 inches will be possible across Huerfano
and Las Animas counties this evening. Most of the plains will remain
windy and mostly dry...though a few sprinkles/flurries will be
possible at times.

Snow will diminish late tonight...though central mountains will
continue to see some isolated to scattered snow showers due to
continued northwesterly orographic flow.  Temperatures tonight
should be much colder...particularly across the mountain valleys
where readings will drop to around 0 or slightly below by morning.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Not many adjustments required from previous longer term
meteorological reasoning as relatively tranquil conditions
anticipated. Primary concerns continue to be temperatures in
combination with generally light snow over primarily higher
terrain locations at times in combination with gusty winds at
times.

Incoming longer term computer simulations, forecast model soundings
and PV analysis suggest that forecast district will experience
northwesterly to northerly upper flow from Wednesday into next
Monday with passing basically weak upper disturbances producing
primarily higher terrain precipitation at times from Wednesday
into Thursday night with basically dry conditions then expected
from Friday into at least next Monday.

Overall, maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to run
near to below late January climatological averages over most
locations from Wednesday into Saturday with temperatures then
expected to climb above late January climatological averages
from Sunday into Monday.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for gusty
winds during the longer term should be noted Wednesday and then
again from later Thursday night into Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

IFR to LIFR vis/cigs will persist over the mountains today with
rounds of SN and BLSN.  The taf sites will stay predominantly
VFR...though periods of MVFR will be possible at KALS during the
late morning and early afternoon with -SHSN...and for KCOS and KPUB
during the afternoon through early evening with -SHSN behind a cold
front. Winds will become northwest to northerly at all three
terminals today...with KCOS and KPUB seeing gusts up to 25 kts by
late morning.  Winds will decrease tonight but will remain around 10
kts through most of the overnight hours particularly at KCOS and
KPUB. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
COZ059-061-064-067-073-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for
COZ058-060-066-068.

&&

$$


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