Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 310535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE DATABASE AND TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED NR THE SRN TIP OF NV THRU THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS CO.

AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FALLING OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AREAS WHERE PCPN IS FALLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT AS
TEMPS COOL AREAS WITH RAIN WL SEE THAT CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  BY LATE
NIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING...THE NAM IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE OVR THE MTNS...IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS OVR THE
STATE SAT AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN FROM THE TELLER
COUNTY AREA...ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  IT ALSO
INCREASES PCPN CHANCES OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS OVR THE PALMER DVD. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH
SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS AS THE NAM...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO MODELS. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SAT AFTERNOON ON THE 18Z RUN OF THE
NAM.  THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT...WITH THE FAR SERN PLAINS
BEING WETTER THAN THE NAM FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
HIGH SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LATER SHIFTS CAN GET A LOOK AT THE EVENING MODEL RUNS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BE RAINING SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HITTING THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREAS HARDEST AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.
SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH IT HANGING ON
THE LONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA...WITH ALL
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WESTERLY MIXING WILL
HELP THE EASTERN PLAINS RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY SNOW COVER WHICH MAY
LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...DROPPING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
KEEPING ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE DRY. FOR NOW HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ROCKIES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT COS AND PUB THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT
WAVE WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS.

IFR AND LIFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWEST WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 22Z THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW


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