Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

...Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms increases for Monday
across the plains...

Embedded shortwave ejecting northeast into CO has fired off showers
and thunderstorms over the mountains.  Strongest convection this
afternoon is expected to fire along and east of a dryline across the
far eastern counties.  SPC meso analysis shows around 1500-2500 J/kg
across the far southeast counties of eastern Las Animas, Baca and
Prowers counties as of 20z.  Effective bulk shears will be running
around 30-40 kts, especially if sfc winds can shift a bit
southeasterly, so potential exists for an isolated severe
thunderstorm through the early evening.  Otherwise, expect isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms with some small hail and
gusty winds possible. Thunderstorms should diminish overnight.

Monday will be a similar set up to today.  Upper low over SW CA will
move eastward into AZ, at the same time a northern stream upper trof
drops into the northern U.S. Rockies.  With approach of these
systems, suspect sfc winds will stay more southeasterly on Monday
which may serve to keep 40s to mid 50 sfc dew points across the
southeast plains to the north of a sfc boundary which will run along
the highway 50 corridor, southeastward to Kim by afternoon. Mid
level winds look a little weak, which may limit deep layer shear
some. But with CAPES running from 800-2000+ J/KG, this could lead to
a couple severe thunderstorms again Monday afternoon.  Best threat
area will be to the east of La Junta, but depending on how much
low level moisture can be maintained farther west, its possible
that portions of El Paso county could see a strong to severe
thunderstorm Monday afternoon as well. Highest pops will be
across the mountains, El Paso county and the far eastern plains
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

...Wet weather for Tuesday/Tuesday Night for SE Mountains/Adjacent
Plains...

Upper low across MT/WY will move eastward into the Dakotas by Tues
morning while trailing trof/upper low slowly meanders eastward over
AZ.  Northern stream system will drop a cold front through the
southeast plains Monday night/Tuesday morning, though initially
appears northerly surge will be influenced more by convective
outflows from thunderstorms along the Palmer Divide and northeast
CO, with cooler air lagging until late Monday night/Tuesday
morning. Will keep thunderstorms going across the southeast plains
as there will probably be enough convergence along the boundary
for thunderstorm initiation. Best chance for any severe
thunderstorms Monday evening will be east of La Junta again where
deeper moisture will reside. Could also see a strong storm or two
along the Palmer Divide, but this will depend on how much low
level moisture is maintained.

Models in better agreement on Tuesday, driving the front well
southward into NE NM by 18z Tues.  Should see upslope
showers/thunderstorms develop over the southeast mountains fairly
early in the day. However, suspect that Northerly surface winds will
also send some modestly drier air into the southeast plains during
the afternoon. Theta E ridge/axis of higher dew points will
likely reside across NE NM/TX Panhandle region, along and north
of the frontal boundary. Still plenty of moisture/instability over
the mountain, particularly the SE Mts, for fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Could be a strong storm or
two over the mountains as well though think CAPE is overdone in
the NAM. Both NAM and GFS carry precipitation into the overnight
hours across the southeast mountains/adjacent plains, though 12z
GFS looks convectively contaminated after 06z given its over an
inch bulls eye over the Pikes Peak region and Wet mountains. More
likely scenario will be for focus to be shifting southward along
the SE Mts/I-25 corridor during the overnight hours with Wets and
southern Sangre De Cristo mountains seeing max precipitation
during the overnight hours. Main concern besides a strong to
marginally severe storm or two Tuesday afternoon will be the
potential for heavy rainfall on area burn scars. NE flow would
tend to favor the Wets and Sangres for this risk...but Waldo burn
scar will also be under the threat. Otherwise far eastern plains
may end up being too cool and stable for much more than isolated
rain showers Tuesday/Tuesday night. Snow levels Tuesday night look
to stay around 10kft, possibly dropping to 9Kft Wednesday morning.
Higher elevations above 10kft could pick up several inches of wet
snow.

Wednesday looks cool and stable across the plains, but continued
unsettled over the mountains with another round of scattered showers
and thundestorms.  Upper ridge will build over the western U.S from
Thursday through next weekend bringing a good warm up for the
region.  Still enough moisture for isolated to low end scattered
thunderstorms mainly over the mountains each day. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected at taf sites overnight, with light
drainage flows developing by sunrise Mon. Tsra will develop over
the higher terrain after 18z Mon, with a few storms spreading to
lower elevations late in the day. KCOS has the best chance for a
storm during the day, though have included a vcts mention at all
taf sites for a few hrs mid/late afternoon. Main threat with any
storms will be gusty outflow winds, as low levels along I-25 and
and westward will stay fairly dry. Convection will shift east
onto the plains Mon evening, with clearing skies at all taf sites
after 00z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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