Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291224
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

BASED ON LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR....WHICH SHOW GREATEST
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER SE PUEBLO COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS N OF THE ARKANSAS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD THESE COUNTIES TO
THE SNOW ADVISORY. HRRR SHOWS QPF MAXES OVER SRN PUEBLO COUNTY
AND PROWERS COUNTY. THIS MATCHES OTHER MODEL TRENDS AS WELL. SRN
EL PASO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

...FRIGID AIR HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH SOME SNOW...

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING SWD THROUGH NE CO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
PALMER DVD BY 15Z AND THEN CHARGE SWD ALONG ALL OF OUR ERN PLAINS BY
18Z. SINCE THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...HAVE PUSHED BACK
TIMING OF POPS A BIT BUT BY 18Z THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SNOW OVER OUR AREA. THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL INTO
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...SO EVERYONE WILL GET A DOSE OF THE
FRIGID CONDITIONS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED EARLY AS STRONG CAA
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TODAY. MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND REST OF THE SE PLAINS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
20S.

MODELS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT BOTH IN TIME AND ACROSS THE
BOARD IN TERMS OF EXPECTED QPF FROM THIS EVENT. HIGH SNOW-LIQUID
RATIOS MAY PUSH THINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST...BUT IN GENERAL
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS FOR THE LOWLANDS
AND 6 TO 8 INCH TOTALS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADDED FREMONT COUNTY
AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER CANYON TO OUR SNOW ADVISORIES...ALONG WITH THE
NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN
SHOWING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO EXTENDED THE CENTRAL
MTS ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIKELY THERE. SNOW AMOUNTS EVERYWHERE LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVELS. FROM AN IMPACT PERSPECTIVE...IT WILL BE A TWO EDGED
SWORD SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF HOLIDAY TRAFFIC BUT WITH
THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AND COLD AIR...ROAD CONDITIONS MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS BAD. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS...AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS
TIME. REMAINING ZONES/AREAS THAT WILL REQUIRE CLOSE ATTENTION ARE
THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...IF COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUEBLO COUNTY OVER SRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND WILL SPREAD OUT EWD TOWARD
THE KS BORDER. AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUE
MORNING. H7 TEMPS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO NR MINUS 23 DEGREES...WHICH
TYPICALLY ONLY HAPPENS A COUPLE TIMES EACH WINTER. THE ONLY THING
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM HITTING LOWS MINUS 20
DEGREES OR LOWER WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW. THIS
WILL SERVE TO KEEP US ON THE `WARM` SIDE...ONLY ZERO TO MINUS 10
DEGREES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE BORDERLINE WIND-CHILL
ADVISORY READINGS OVER THE MTS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND PIKES PEAK
REGION BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY SPOTTY AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL ALERTS. THE COLDEST AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. SO...BREAK OUT LOTS OF LAYERS AND PREPARE FOR
THE COLD! ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

...VERY COLD TUESDAY...THEN WHERE DOES THE UPPER LOW GO LATE IN THE
WEEK?...

TUESDAY...

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ALL
AREAS ON THE PLAINS WILL ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS. AREAS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY SEE A FEW MAX TEMPS
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT MOS IS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT GRIDS...HOWEVER SPC PLUME VIEWER
PRODUCTS LEAN MORE TOWARDS CURRENT NDFD TEMPS...AND CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. IT WILL BE
CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND SNOW IS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IT APPEARS THE SNOW
THAT FALLS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO
OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

WIND CHILL READINGS TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS I EXPECT
THESE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -10 AND -20F MOST OF THE DAY.

MTNS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY C MTNS.
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
UPPER ARK RVR VALLEY...HOWEVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL NOT SEE
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE SLV SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAIN. HOW COLD IS THE QUESTION. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS (OR LACK THEREOF) WE
HAVE OVER THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON SNOW COVER. FOR
NOW THE NDFD MIN TEMPS RANGE BETWEEN -5 TO -15F OVER THE PLAINS.
IF IT CLEARS OUT AND THERE IS WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...THEN THESE
TEMPS COULD BE 5 TO 10F COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS.

WEDNESDAY...

WE START TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IT STILL WILL BE
COLD. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
THIS DAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MID ARK RVR VALLEY
(SALIDA TO CANON CITY) WHERE TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE MID 20S. I
EXPECT THE PLAINS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE TEENS WITH A 20S JUST
EAST OF THE MTNS. EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTDVD...IT
WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

CONCERN TURN TOWARDS THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE N ARIZ THURSDAY
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS
FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE SAN
JUAN REGION THU AND FRI...AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
S TIER OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODIFY WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (~40F PLAINS)
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO SE CO BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH TUESDAY. KCOS
AND KPUB WILL SEE THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM 16-18Z AS LIGHT SNOW
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MODERATE FROM THE NE DURING THIS PERIOD. KALS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE A BIT LATER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE COLD AIR TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ065-069-072>080-083-086>089-093-095>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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