Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 090523
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.  DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WARMING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A TROUGH SITS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DROP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR REGION...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER WEST. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEE SLOPES
SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE WIND AND
KEEPS THE MOUNTAINS DRY. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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