Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 310546
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER. VIRTUALLY KILLED ALL POPS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TWEAKED SKY COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH SATELLITE.
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CURRENTLY...STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. HAVE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING...AS RISING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE SO FAR SUPPRESSING MOST VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LAPS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER HEALTHY
SURFACE BASED CAPE (1000+ J/KG) OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
I-25...THOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SEEMS LACKING SO FAR.

TONIGHT...MOST MESOSCALE MODELS STILL INSIST AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA
WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY 00Z...WITH 18Z NAM PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION 00Z-03Z. WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARGUE FOR A
DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING...TOUGH TO COMPLETELY IGNORE HIGHER
CAPES...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY TSRA THAT DO FORM WILL DIE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH LACK OF FORCING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE...LEADING TO
PERHAPS ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF YEAR SO FAR AS MAX TEMPS PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED
HOWEVER TO UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS MOIST GROUND WILL SHAVE
A COUPLE DEGREES POTENTIAL MAXES. LEE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS VERY
DIFFUSE...AND WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS NOT AIDING DRYING MUCH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES.
LACK OF MUCH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST
MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO SURVIVING TO REACH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND I-
25 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NAM
CONTINUES TO HAVE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER. SUSPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. IF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS NEAR THE BORDER...THEN STORMS NEAR THE BORDER COULD BECOME
SEVERE. SHEAR COULD BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH BULK SHEARS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. ON TUESDAY...FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. DRIER
MIDDLE LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
AND THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

.WEDNESDAY...DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH THE BEST LIFT STAYING TO THE NORTH OF
OUR CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONTO THE PLAINS...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL CONSENSUS TENDS TO KEEP THE FRONT JUST TO HE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN AREAS WILL
TEND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.
MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE TROUGH. EC AND
GEM TEND TO HAVE A STRONGER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. THE GFS AND
MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION. SOLUTION
WITH STRONGER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. TOO FAR
OUT TO GET VERY SPECIFIC...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON ALREADY MOISTURE SOILS.
-PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS SOME MVFR CIGS THAT HAVE FORMED OVER
THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COULD AFFECT THE KPUB AND
KCOS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 10-15Z TIME PERIOD...BEFORE LOWER
CLOUDS DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO TEND TO SUPPRESS STORMS...SO ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON-EVE...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



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