Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW ECHOES OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z.  THERE IS STILL A LOT OF CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS...THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE DRY WEATHER TODAY AS AN UPR
TROF EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST AND WEAK UPR RIDGING OCCURS.
WESTERLY WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WL BE A BIT BREEZY.
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD...ARE EXPECTED TO SEE RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF NR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM AROUND CANON CITY...
ACRS PORTIONS OF PUEBLO...CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES.  HIGH TEMPS WL
BE COOLER TODAY BUT WL BE AROUND AVERAGE TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TONIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO NV AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW OVR WESTERN PORTIONS.  DRY
WX WL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND TO A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY
DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
JET STREAM ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH DO AGREE
ON LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUPPORTING
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM MONDAY FOR ZONES 222...228...229 AND
230...WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS A TAD FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF...IN WHICH
THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  AT ANY RATE...BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AT
AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND COOLER TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...AOA 10K FT...WITH
BEST ACCUMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
PROGGED BEHIND TUESDAYS PASSING SYSTEM. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SPREADING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH
AGAIN DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ222-228>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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