Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121730
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today
and tonight. Strong winds are being reported over the high
elevations this morning, with gusts of 45 to 60 mph.  Winds will
increase at the lower elevations later today, with gusts of 20-30
mph expected along portions of the I-25 corridor and locations
adjacent to the eastern mtns, and gusts of 30-40 mph in portions of
the San Luis Valley. Min RH values will likely dip below 15 percent
in eastern Fremont, Pueblo and southern El Paso counties this
afternoon and with wind gusts of 20-30 mph, the fire danger will be
elevated.  It looks like these areas could reach Red Flag criteria
for a couple hours, but not long enough to warrant a highlight for
these conditions.  High temps today will be above average, with
highs mostly in the 80s acrs the southeast plains and in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the high valleys.

A front will push southward into southeast CO late tonight, possibly
bringing some low clouds into portions of the far southeast
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Primary longer range meteorological concerns include
temperatures, low grade pops and gusty winds/elevated fire
weather concerns at times.

Recent PV/Water Vapor analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that the forecast district should
experience generally dry southwest to northwest upper flow during
the longer term.

In addition, northerly surface surges are projected to move
across eastern sections Friday morning and then again during
Saturday afternoon.

At this time, the highest potential of mainly light precipitation
should be noted over primarily eastern locations from Friday
night into Saturday with even some stronger storms possible over
far southeastern locations during this time-frame.

Overall, above seasonal mid-October temperatures are anticipated
over the majority of the forecast district from Friday into
Saturday and then again from Monday into Wednesday with below
seasonal temperatures expected Sunday(including below freezing
minimum temperatures over many lower elevation locations Sunday
morning).

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be realized from Friday afternoon into Saturday allowing
for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns at times
during this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; kpub, kals and kcos. Winds will be breezy from the
south to southwest today. Winds will become diurnally driven this
evening into tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH



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