Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 310523
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW. THE COOL...STABLE AIRMASS HAS
INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.

IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE SHOWERS END AND THE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 68...WE WILL NOT SET A NEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDORS.
SHOWERS ARE PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS FOR THEIR DEPTH AND
REFLECTIVITY.  WARM RAIN PROCESSES APPEAR TO BE DOMINATING THESE
CELLS.  RAINFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST...ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE STABLE...AND ECHO ARE SPARSE AT THIS TIME DESPITE AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS SO FAR HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS SO A MODESTLY DEEP CELL COULD PRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD.
WILL ALSO LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR POTIONS OF THE PLAINS EVEN
THOUGH CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS IN THESE REGIONS SHAVE ALSO
DECREASED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY END BY LATE EVENING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL STAY
TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN NEAR 1 INCH OR HIGHER
OVER MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE I25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE AND STORMS WILL ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THEY
TRY TO MOVE ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL QPF VALUES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT BELIEVE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME
FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE BURN SCARS AND
OTHER HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. REMAINING COOL BUT SHOULD BE
WARMER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. --PGW-

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

...MONSOON CONTINUES...

EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WITH SATURATED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUSPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON FRIDAY...NAM
PUSHES SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
GFS/ECMWF KEEP DRIEST AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AS MOST
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
HEATING/INSTABILITY...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL WELL
ABOVE AN INCH...SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE MANY LOCATIONS. STORMS MAY NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF I-25
AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY...THOUGH WITH SOME
SUN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUSPECT ENOUGH FORCING FROM ANY
OUTFLOWS TO MOVE STORMS ON TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. LOWEST POPS
WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH EVEN HERE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE FINALLY
START TO WARM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SLY AND HEIGHTS
BUILD...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY SUN AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE
WEAK...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL...AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS
FORECAST BOTH SAT/SUN. A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES FALLING OFF QUICKLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...SO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. AGAIN SHADED POP FORECAST
TOWARD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB BACK
TO AT LEAST NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER BUILDING UPPER HIGH.

UPPER HIGH THEN RETREATS SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TUE. MODELS SUGGEST RENEWED PUSH OF MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...THUS EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MON/TUE. WITH
UPPER WINDS TAKING ON A MORE W-SW COMPONENT...A FEW STORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST WED...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITH A NEW SURGE OF UPSLOPE MOISTURE AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY WARM MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME COOLING EASTERN SECTIONS ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
11Z. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AS MONSOON PLUME REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...ETP
AVIATION...STARK
HYDROLOGY...PGW


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