Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220512
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Updated Fremont County due to shower and thunderstorm activity
north of Texas Creek. This activity should continue for the next
hour or two, before dissipating. Slow cell movements will likely
allow this storm to produce locally heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, the
forecast is on track with no further updates.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

...Better chance of storms Monday for the mountains as a slug of
monsoon moisture moves over the region...

Currently...

Large majority of tsra activity attm were noted over the higher
terrain generally south of highway 50, generally over the s sangres
and san juans. Elsewhere across the plains, skies were clear (except
for anvil blowoff) with temps in the  70s to L80s...with 88 in KLHX.

On the larger scale...a shortwave was located over th Las Vegas
region...with other weaker disturbances noted over NM.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight...

Although all mountainous/hi valley areas may see some thunder the
rest of this afternoon and evening, best chances will remain over
the San Juans and S Sangre  de Cristo mtns. An isold storm may move
off the mtns to the adj plains, and one or two may develop along a
sfc trough axis over the far eastern  plains. All activity on the
plains should end by mid evening.

Over the mtns...some tsra is likely going to last late in the
evening and overnite, especially along the CO/NM border.

Min temps tonight will be warmer than this mornings lows...with mins
getting down into the 50s and 60s.

Monday...

Disturbance will move east-northeast into sw CO. This will bring an
increasing chance of showers and storms to the mtns, especially the
sw and c mtns as a good slug of moisture crosses the region. Flash
flood threat will be on the increase...especially for the burn scars
and Chalk Bluff regions west of Buena Vista. Plains will likely
remain dry during the daylight hours.

It will be noticeably windier across the eastern plains tomorrow,
especially east of a line from KLHX to KTAD.

Max temps will reach into the L90s across the lower ark rvr valley,
with 80s rest of the plains. Mtns/valleys will be cooler due to all
of the clouds/precip. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Relatively unsettled meteorological conditions are anticipated
during the majority of the longer term as adequate atmospheric
moisture interacts with upper disturbances and north to
easterly surface surges at times.

Primary meteorological issues include pops/qpf and storm
intensities at times as well as temperatures. Recent PV
analysis...longer range computer simulations and forecast model
soundings indicate that basically zonal to southwesterly upper
flow will prevail over the cwfa into next weekend with the next
north/northeasterly surface surge pushing across eastern sections
Tuesday night...followed by easterly surface flow Wednesday.

The combination of adequate atmospheric moisture...upper
disturbances and northerly to easterly surface flow at times will
allow daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity(favoring
higher terrain locations)...the strongest of which will be capable
of producing locally heavy rain/small hail and gusty winds at
times.

At this time...it appears that the highest potential for more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity should be noted from
later Tuesday into Wednesday night. As always...WFO Pueblo will
monitor for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash flood potential
as well as for any stronger thunderstorm potential during the
longer term.

Coolest temperatures during the longer term should be experienced
from Wednesday into Friday with warmest conditions anticipated
Tuesday as then again by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening
across the San Luis Valley, which may impact the terminal with
reduced VIS and CIGS.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with mid
and high level clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the mountains Monday afternoon and evening, but do not look to
impact the terminal at this time.  Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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