Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

With drier air over the area today, little in the way of pcpn is
expected this afternoon and evening.  The models continue to show
the potential for some isolated showers/tstms over the mtns,
although the HRRR also shows a few drifting out over the lower
elevations of El Paso and Pueblo counties this evening.

With the upper level ridge being over the area on Sat, the chances
for pcpn still look quite limited. The forecast models show isolated
pcpn over the mtns in the afternoon.  However, a weak disturbance in
the flow aloft, is expected to move across southern CO in the
afternoon and the NAM and GFS show it kicking off some pcpn across
mainly the far southeast plains.  Temps on Sat are expected to be a
little above average acrs the southeast plains, with highs close to
average in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 459 AM  MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Pops and temperatures remain primary longer term concerns over the
forecast district.

Varying degrees of upper ridging expected to continue over
southern Colorado from Sunday into mid-week with a more zonal
upper pattern then anticipated by later next week.

Also, a relatively moist northeasterly/easterly/southeastern
surface surge/regime is still projected to impact primarily
eastern sections of the forecast district from Tuesday into
Wednesday(increasing precipitation potential as well as
qpf/storm intensities during this time-frame).

Precipitable water values over locations such as sections of the
Interstate 25 corridor are still projected to increase from
approximately .60 inches early this afternoon to around 1.15+
inches at times by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This combination of the increased atmospheric moisture profile,
subtle upper disturbance(per PV analysis) and projected localized
capes, LI`s and bulk shear wind shear values nearing/exceeding
1300 J/KG, -5C and 30 knots at times respectively by the middle
of next week will allow for the potential of storms capable of
generating heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding as well
as intense storms(favoring the eastern mountains/foothills and
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains), primarily from
Tuesday into Wednesday, with lower grade storms then expected by
next Thursday and Friday. WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and
issue hydro/severe products as needed.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are still projected to run above
climatological later August climatological averages over the
majority of the forecast district Sunday and Monday with maximum
temperatures then running near to below later August climatological
averages from Tuesday into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB
and KALS.  There is a small chance for showers/tstms at KCOS this
evening.  Saturday afternoon some isolated showers/tstms could
impact the vicinity of the terminal forecast sites, however chances
are too low at this time to include in the forecast.





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