Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 191718
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST
WAS SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH...PROVIDING FOR A HEALTHY FEED OF MOISTURE
UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO COLORADO. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGHER POINTS
AS OF 345 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON CONTINUING THE SLOW SOUTHERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH
WILL JUST KEEP THE MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING INTO EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO IN PLACE. THE MODELS INDICATED THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
SPARSE IF AT ALL FOR THE E PLAINS...SO PAINTED THE POP GRIDS WITH
SCATTERED TO LIKELY ALONG THE CONTDVD...SCATTERED OVER THE REST OF
THE MTS...AND ISOLATED OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS AND I25 CORRIDOR.
A NEARLY STEADY S-SW FLOW FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH H5 SHOULD KEEP
THINGS VERY WARM FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...SO WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MON. AS FOR THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...INCREASING
THICKER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTN. AS ALWAYS...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS SUCH THAT
STORMS SHOULD NOT LINGER LONG. FINALLY...CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE CONTDVD.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE FOR MID-LATE WEEK...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CA/WRN AZ WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON PLUME
EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASE BACK TO BETWEEN .50 AND 1.25 INCHES FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH HIGHEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THUS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SFC WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
OUT OF A MORE DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION WHICH KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS
PREDOMINATELY IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST. NAM AND
GFS PUT GREATEST POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY IN
VICINITY OF WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER FORCING MOVES ACROSS ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN...CAPE LOOKS LIMITED.
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BURN SCARS FOR AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...LCLS DO NOT LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...AND INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP WHICH
MAY MITIGATE THIS THREAT SOME. STILL SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING FOR THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.

MODELS DIFFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI...AS GFS OPENS UP THE CLOSED
LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CO THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  EC AND NAM KEEP THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/SW AZ THROUGH THURS NIGHT.  SO WHILE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT AS
UPPER FORCING MOVES ACROSS...EC KEEPS ANY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/-TSRA
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITHIN THE MONSOON
PLUME. EVENTUALLY A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS NEXT TROF...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. EVENTUALLY WE COULD SEE A GREATER CHANCE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EITHER SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CO PLAINS AS WELL AS KS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS HARD TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.