Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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