Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 191744
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CURRENTLY...

SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED
OVER THE MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WAS STILL
NOTED OVER THE PLAINS...AS RH VALUES OVER THE LAMAR AREA WERE ABOVE
90% AND SOME FOG WAS NOTED. ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODEST NW FLOW WAS
STILL NOTED OVER THE REGION.

TODAY...

FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO WEAKER WEST
FLOW AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE STATE OF CO. BEST DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. TWO AREAS OF INTEREST
ARE NOTED TODAY...THE FIRST BEING THE SAN JUANS AND THE 2ND...THE
FAR E PLAINS.

MODELS ARE PEGGING THE SAN JUANS FOR ENHANCED PRECIP TODAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJ SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE HIGHER
TODAY...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TIME PD. THE BURN SCARS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY.

GUIDANCE ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC ALSO NOTES WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM OVER THIS REGION DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PD.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...LOW END SCT POPS ARE IN ORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN WITH ISOLD POPS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
POPS ENDING AROUND SUNSET OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...HOT...

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTION THERE WILL BE AND THE CONSEQUENTIAL
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY. THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM AN
ONGOING...ALBEIT WEAKENED...MONSOON WILL HAVE A SAY IN JUST
HOW HOT IT GETS EACH AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO BE A
TAD TOO HOT GIVEN THE MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND.
GFS MOS...FOR EXAMPLE...PROGS 104 DEGREES FOR PUEBLO ON
MONDAY...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT BE REALIZED WITHOUT STRONG W-SW
FLOW ALOFT. COMPLICATING THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE EC KEEPS 600 DM H5 HIGH
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...WHILE THE GFS SUBTLY SHIFTS THE HIGH
EWD INTO ERN NM BY MID-WEEK. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THAT
SHOULD ALLOW BETTER SRLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO PERSIST AND INCREASE
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THAT SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS BELOW 100 DEGREES. YET...THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR KPUB SUN-TUE.
AND THE EC MOS IS EVEN AT 100 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IT
WILL BE HOT AND LIKELY THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SUMMER...AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER THAN THAT. STILL
SHOULD SEE SCT STORMS ON SUNDAY...THEN THE DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT
SW KICKS IN ON MON-TUE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE HOTTEST DAYS OF
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE MONSOONAL ACTIVITY FOR THE END
OF JULY. LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS CALL FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE AUGUST...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE MONSOON
WILL STAY QUIET FOR VERY LONG. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE MAY DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT HIGHER
TERRAIN...AFFECTING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH VIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 6 MILES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE TAF SITES
BY 03Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT


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