National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 120500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

INCREASED POPS ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE
PLAINS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

SCATTERED TSRA DROPPING SOUTH OVER TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHRA WERE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS INSTABILITY THESE AREAS IS VERY
LIMITED. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW -SHRA REACHING THE
EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WHERE VARIOUS SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING. PRECIP THEN FADES BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...AND
BLEND OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKS FINE. ON SUNDAY...UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CREEPS CLOSER TO COLORADO...AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE
FAIRLY SPARSE AND LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB AND RATHER MODEST RISE IN 700 MB
TEMPS...MOS MAXES LOOKED TOO WARM MANY AREAS AND CONTINUED TO SHADE
TOWARD THE COOLER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

...SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER COMING THIS WEEK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY MT REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON BREAKING OUT ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS EACH AFTN AND EVE.
ALSO...LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A VERY WARM DAY ON
MON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS...AND IN THE
70S PUSHING 80 F FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PAC NW AND TRACKS
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. MORE AFTN AND EVE MT CONVECTION WILL BE
ON TAP FOR TUE.

WEDNESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT DOWN INTO COLORADO EARLY WED...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CROSS THE PALMER DVD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING/AFTN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS WED AFTN AND KNOCK MAX TEMPS INTO THE
70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PAC NW. GFS AND EC MODELS STILL INDICATE DIURNAL MT CONVECTION EACH
DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20KTS DEVELOPING AT COS
AND PUB BETWEEN 14-17Z AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW