Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231635
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
935 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND POPS FROM THE EASTERN MTS
WESTWARD. ONGOING FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE E PLAINS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
HIGHEST RECORDED GUST IN PAST HOUR OF 46KTS AT SPD. WINDS AND
SNOWFALL LAGGING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THOUGH STILL SEEING SOME
ECHOES ACROSS DOUGLAS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...WHICH COULD POSE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DVD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING
ONGOING FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FOR NOW...DUE TO POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...AS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY...

NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG SFC-H7
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPPER JET CORE ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 3 AM...STARTING TO SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
40 MPH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LIMON
AND BURLINGTON...WITH BEST 3HRLY SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 2-3 MBS STILL
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HITTING THE PALMER DVD
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF
PRECIPITATION OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY...WITH ONE BAND MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST OF BURLINGTON ATTM. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
INDICATING SOME ENHANCED ECHOES NORTHEAST OF EL PASO AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...AND WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HITTING THE PALMER
DIVIDE...STILL SHOULD SEE AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING
DRIVE...WITH A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN ISSUE...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXPECTED POOR VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW...WITH TRAVEL ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
HIGHWAYS 24 AND 94 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...AS WELL AS I-
25 FROM MONUMENT NORTH TO DENVER...LIKELY BEING VERY HAZARDOUS THIS
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FOR IMPACT OF SNOW AND BLOWING
AND NOT FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS...COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES IN BLOWING DUST AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE PLAINS SEEING SOME RECENT
PRECIPITATION...THINK BLOWING DUST WILL BE TOO LOCALIZED FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM.

A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON WED AS UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S MOST LOCATIONS...AND FEW SPOTS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF I-25 MAY APPROACH 50F AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SYSTEM THEN DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WED NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...KEEPING LOW TEMPS RATHER MILD
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. ON THU...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MARCH
EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD COLORADO...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A DUE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE STATE
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SNOW WILL REACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
MIDDAY THU...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU
NIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED A ROUND OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR HIGHER
DIVIDE ZONES ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH WILL LET TODAY`S HIGHLIGHTS
EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW ONES. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
THU...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE THU MORNING IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AS BAND OF STRONGER 700 MB WINDS
MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THU...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MILD AIR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 50S...AIDED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS.

COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE THU NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE. MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THU NIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT POST FRONTAL SNOW OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING BIG
SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING BRIEFLY UPSLOPE ALONG I-25 LATE THU
NIGHT...EASTERN MOUNTAINS/RATON MESA/PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE AT
LEAST A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY EARLY FRI MORNING. MAIN
PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
FRI...THOUGH SOME WEAKER ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE LITTLE
AS COLDER AIR POURS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MAXES.

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT BEFORE
UPPER ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH DAYS. WESTERN TROUGH RELOADS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN
WHILE A RENEWED SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS.
MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH COULD STAY TOO FAR WEST TO PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA...THOUGH RATHER DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EVENT MON INTO TUE. CURRENT POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
ON THE LOW SIDE SO FAR...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED AS
EVENT COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE AT COS AND PUB. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING AT
BOTH COS AND PUB THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL ONLY KEEP VCSH AT COS
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYING NORTH ALONG THE PALMER DVD. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ095>099.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ085-086.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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