Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1018 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper ridge in combination with lee troffing across the plains will
bring record to near record high temperatures today across the
plains.  Old records today are 73 for Pueblo, and 68 for Colorado
Springs...both set in 1970.  Current grids either tie or come within
a degree of these values today as sunny skies and deep mixing tap
warmer air aloft.  Elsewhere across the mountains and valleys,
temperatures today will be similar to a degree or two warmer than
yesterday.  KALS is still dealing with some residual snow cover
which has kept temperatures on the cool side.  This will likely
continue today...though should see more progress in melting there as
temperatures climb to around 40.   Otherwise...forecast area will
remain dry with light winds.

Southwest flow increases overnight and lee troffing across the plains
should keep temperatures fairly warm along the lower eastern
slopes/I-25 corridor. Next disturbance to affect CO will be glancing
through NW CO late tonight...with another system moving into the
Great Basin towards 12z.  Main affect will be an increase in
mid/high cloudiness overnight...particularly over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday-Saturday...Latest models in good agreement of increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region Friday, with one minor
embedded short wave moving across the Rockies ahead of long wave
trough digging across the West Coast. Flow aloft becomes more
southerly through the day Saturday, as another minor short wave
ejects across the state with the main upper trough digging across
the Great Basin through the Desert SW. Minor waves to bring isolated
to scattered showers to mainly the higher terrain along and west of
the ContDvd late Friday afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon and evening, with local snow accumulations of a few inches
possible over the highest peaks.  Otherwise, generally dry weather
with temperatures at or above seasonal levels can be expected, with
highs in the 60s across the lower elevations, 40s and 50s across the
higher terrain and 20 and 30s at the peaks.

Sunday-Monday...Some differences in models with location of
developing southern stream upper low, however, most models dig the
upper low within the southern stream into the Southern Rockies,
while a progressive upper trough within the northern stream lifts
out across the Central Rockies on Sunday, and then continues into
the Upper Midwest on Monday.  Sunday looks to be the best timing of
accumulating snowfall across the ContDvd, with showers spreading
east across the high mountain valleys through the eastern mountains
and plains Sunday afternoon and night, though the progressive nature
of the system will keep precipitation totals generally light. Models
do not indicate much in the way of cold air will be associated with
the passing system, with temperatures remaining at and above
seasonal levels, warmest across the southeast plains.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Generally dry and warm weather expected into the
middle of next week, with moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of
another Eastern Pacific system digging across the West Coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1017 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Winds will follow a typical diurnal cycle with speeds under 15




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