Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191712
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Some low stratus and fog has developed over portions of El Paso
county this morning. The San Luis Valley also has some low clouds
this morning. The hrrr and nam are suggesting the stratus should
dissipate by 15-16z this morning.

An upr trof wl be to the east ovr KS and TX today, with a shortwave
ridge ovr CO through tonight.  There wl be enough mstr ovr the area
today for isold to sct showers and tstms to develop ovr the mtns and
high valleys, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Could
even see a couple showers/storms move out ovr the I-25 corridor.
high temps today wl be warmer than yesterday and should generally be
just a few degrees below average.

by late tonight most if not all pcpn should end. however, toward
morning the nam is suggesting an area of pcpn could move into the
CONTDVD, but the gfs is dry.  it looks like low stratus could
develop tonight ovr portions of the sern plains, mainly from KLHX
and eastward, although it also looks like portions of El Paso county
may also see the low clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Friday-Saturday...A warmer and drier weather pattern continues to be
in the offing as upper level ridging builds into the region on
Friday, with southwest flow aloft increasing into Saturday ahead of
EPAC energy digging across the West Coast and into the Great Basin.
Enough residual moisture will be in place to support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms both days, mainly
over and near the higher terrain. Storms that do develop look to be
higher based, with lightning and gusty winds the main threats.
Latest models are indicating fairly deep mixing across the area on
Saturday supporting breezy south to southwest winds into the
afternoon and early evening and pushing dry line well into Kansas.
Warming aloft continues across the area with temperatures warming
back to at and above seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Breezy winds...warm temps and low afternoon humidities to
lead to increased fire danger on Saturday, however, with green up
well underway, do not think fuels across the area will be critical.

Saturday night-Monday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
progged across the region as the Great Basin system lifts out across
the northern Rockies on Monday. Pattern keeps the area warm and
breezy, with isolated to scattered storms possible over and near the
higher terrain. There could be a few stronger storms across the far
southeast plains Saturday night and Sunday, with the dry line
possibly retrograding back near the Kansas border. Should see
temperatures remaining AOA seasonal averages through the period.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Latest model guidance is indicating moderate
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with occasional
embedded short waves translating across the Rockies. This pattern
would lead to generally warm and breezy conditions across the area,
with chances of showers and storms associated with the passing
waves, mainly over and near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...KPUB...KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Brief -TSRA will be possible at the 3 taf sites
this afternoon and early evening...with locally gusty winds
possible with the -TSRA.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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