Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENTLY...

STRATIFORM SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ERN CO BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH
MCS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRATUS LAYER. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATUS
BREAKING UP AROUND 16Z WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE MTNS SEEING STRATUS
BREAK UP BY 17Z.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AROUND THE MTN
AREAS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM NEAR THE PIKES PEAK
MASSIF...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...BEFORE
DRIFTING SSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SPOTTY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE HAS 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE WITH AROUND 25 KTS OF
SHEAR...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE L80S.

TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.  CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGHTS AS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TO ALLOW
FOR CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN UTAH AT 12Z SATURDAY SLOWLY
OSCILLATES INTO EASTERN UTAH BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING
BACK WEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...THE AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC HEATING CYCLE...OCCASIONAL
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES AND PERIODIC UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY(GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS).

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MORE INTENSE STORMS DURING THE LONGER
TERM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENTS AT TIMES. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE
JUNE/EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER OVER KPUB AND
KCOS AREAS THIS MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS WILL SEE VARIATIONS BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL OF VCNTY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL THE TAFS
SITES.  LATE TONIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AT
KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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