Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261457
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
857 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED SKY AND POPS BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE...

PATTERN TODAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH COLORADO UNDER THE
MONSOON MOISTURE FEED ROTATING AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING SHOW TEMPORARY DRYING OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT THIS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS MORE MONSOON
MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR IN COVERAGE TO WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY.  HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEND UP INITIAL
CONVECTION JUST A BIT LATER THAN YESTERDAY.  THERE ARE 2 AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT TO WATCH FOR INITIALLY.  FIRST...THERE IS THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION STARTING UP AROUND 17Z AND THEN TRANSITIONING ONTO THE
PLAINS AROUND 21Z.  A SECOND AREA TO WATCH IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...ALONG A BOUNDARY...STARTING AROUND 21Z. WINDS SHEAR IS
STILL NOT LOOKING GREAT SO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW. WITH
PRECIPITABLE VALUES AROUND AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER A BURN
SCAR...URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEM...OR OTHER FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREA.
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS.

MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THEY EVEN KEEP SOME
ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SO...MAY
NOT BE THE TYPICAL QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ON MOST NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...

ACTIVE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS PROBABLE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH
TAPS MONSOON MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS OLD
MEXICO...AND FUNNELS THEM UP ACROSS AZ/NM AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CO.
MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH MUCH OF THIS
TIME WHICH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PINNED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS A TYPICAL HEAVY RAIN SET UP FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF CO...WHICH CARRIES THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND EVEN RIVER FLOODING AS THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT UNFOLDS.
AS ALWAYS...SUBTLE FEATURES WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE ON WHERE
THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THERE MAY BE SOME DAYS WHERE THE PLAINS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE AND CAPPED...BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT
WHICH DAYS THESE WILL BE. THE SE MOUNTAINS...AND THE BURN SCARS
LOOK PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS EARLY ON SUNDAY
AS FRONT DRIVES SOUTHWARD AND WAA SETS UP OVERTOP FRONT.  WE COULD
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH 00Z GFS WAS DRIER IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S WITH MID 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL
PUT CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER IN AND NEAR
THE SE MTS.  WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT...TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TO NOT ONLY THE BURN SCARS BUT REALLY ANYWHERE IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. APPEARS BEST PARAMETERS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE
NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN CO...SO WILL PLAY HIGHEST
POPS DOWN THIS WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT DAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE LOW. BUT LCLS ARE LOW AND SOUNDINGS STRONGLY
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY END UP NEEDING SOME FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MTS THIS DAY IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT WE`VE HAD A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEK UP UNTIL NOW AND WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE PROBABLY ISN`T TERRIBLY HIGH YET. TIMING OF THE EVENT
MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY AS NAM12 HAS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE`VE REALIZED THE
FULL EXTENT OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. SO
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS.

ON MONDAY...GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ INTO SOUTHERN
CO.  SO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL REPEAT PERFORMANCE.  NAM12 IS A
DRIER ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH SOUNDINGS DON`T APPEAR TOO CAPPED.
NAM DOES GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN/CEN NM AND CRN TX.  GFS BY CONTRAST SUGGESTS
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...AND EC KEEPS THIS MORE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AND FAR SE CORNER.  TEND TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF FOR NOW AND
HAVE TRENDED POP FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.  ONCE AGAIN...SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LCLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

SIGNALS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THAT ANOTHER MCS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD AND 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GFS ALSO SHOWS A NICE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON TUESDAY IF ALL
COMES TOGETHER AS GFS SUGGESTS. ECMWF ALSO LATCHES ON TO THIS
SCENARIO.

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH DETAILS
BECOME MORE MURKY WITH TIME SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON BROADER SCALE
PATTERN. PERSISTENT FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING BEHIND ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF
THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF SUGGESTS A LITTLE DRYING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER GFS SUGGESTS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND BOTH
MODELS KEEP THE MONSOON TAP OVER THE REGION...SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS...WILL CONTINUE.
ALL IN ALL...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA TODAY...BEGINNING AFTER 17Z IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND MAINLY AFTER 21Z ON THE PLAINS.  ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES COULD ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY TODAY...AFTER 18Z AT KALS AND MAINLY AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND
KPUB.  MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.  WIND SHEAR IS
PRETTY WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW


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