Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 271351
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
751 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...

A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING.  AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION.  SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT.  BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.  WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE.  SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT.  AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL.  THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE.  HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING...WITH LESS ACTIVITY SOUTH
OF 50.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z...AND
PRETTY MUCH END BY 18Z.  ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA.  THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT
12Z AND SHOULD BE INTO NEW MEXICO BY 15Z.  NO WEATHER ALONG THE
FRONT BUT A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NNE BEHIND
IT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB AND WILL NOT IMPACT
KALS.  ALL 3 TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER KCOS OR KPUB COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER
MOVE THROUGH EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS
ARE QUITE LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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