Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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