Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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846
FXUS65 KPUB 271817
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

...High Fire Danger for the Plains Today...Heavy Snow for the
Continental Divide Tonight...

First piece of the western trough will drop south from OR into the
Great Basin today, then eject eastward across the central Rockies
tonight. Already seeing a slow increase in clouds and light precip
early this morning across wrn CO ahead of the wave, with modest
surface pressure falls over the plains as lee side trough slowly
strengthens. For today, lee trough continues to deepen, with 998 mb
low pressure center in ne CO by 00Z. Tight surface gradient plus 700
mb winds in the 40-50 kt range suggest windy conditions across all
of the plains by afternoon, with gusts in the of 30-40 knots common.
Given very dry air mass in place currently, which models have
struggled to capture so far this morning, suspect dewpoints will
stay low enough for RH to fall below critical 15 percent threshold
over the plains, and will continue the Red Flag Warning for all
areas along and east of I-25 this afternoon. Over the mountains,
snow showers will gradually increase through the day, though
heaviest snowfall will likely occur tonight as stronger dynamic lift
spreads across the region. Winter storm warnings look good for the
Continental Divide this afternoon and overnight, with much lighter
snows spilling into interior valleys and toward the eastern
mountains late. Deep mixing will lead to mild max temps most
locations today, with continued warmth tonight as wind persists,
keeping mins near or slightly above freezing across much of the
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking with a winter storm
moving across the area through Tuesday night and dry, warmer
weather through the end of the week.

Tuesday...a strong upper level disturbance will be moving east
across Colorado on Tuesday and move into the Central Plains during
the overnight hours. Expect moderate to heavy snow to be ongoing
over the mountains on Tuesday. Across the Plains, a cold front is
forecast to drop south during the late morning hours. South of the
front, Huerfano and western Las Animas Counties may see near
critical fire weather conditions. Winds will be gusty, but
humidity values are currently forecast to be around 20 percent. As
for precipitation, followed the NAM 3km. Expect a band of
rain/snow to spread northeast out of the mountains into the Palmer
Divide during the late morning hours. As the front moves south, a
band of rain changing to snow will spread south with the front
through Tuesday evening. Snow accumulations will likely be
confined to the Palmer Divide where an inch or two may be
possible. Expect precipitation to shift southeast during the
overnight hours coming to an end by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday...broad northwest flow behind the upper
storm system will turn to zonal westerly flow through much of the
week. Isolated snow showers over the Central Mountains should
dissipate by Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail
through Saturday once these showers dissipate. Temperatures will
also begin to warm. Temperatures will reach into the 40s and 50s
Wednesday and Thursday, before warming into the 60s to near 70 for
Friday and Saturday.

Sunday...the next upper storm system is forecast to move out of
the Northern Rockies Sunday. This will force strong westerly flow
across Colorado and bring elevated fire weather concerns to the
Eastern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will need to be monitored.
Temperatures will remain warm with upper 60s to lower 70s across
the Plains. Isolated to scattered showers will likely move into
the Central Mountains on Sunday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

A Pacific weather system will track across the flight area through
Tuesday evening. Snow will ramp up along the Continental Divide
through the afternoon and continue, heavy at times, through
Tuesday. This will generate widespread IFR to LIFR flight
conditions over the Continental Divide for the next 24 hours.
There will also be snow showers that spread to the mountains
farther east through the period but the coverage and intensity
of those showers will be considerably less. Still, areas of MVFR,
IFR or LIFR flight conditions may be encountered in these areas
through Tuesday. The high valleys up in the mountains can also
expect snow and rain showers at times along with local MVFR, IFR
or LIFR flight conditions, mainly tonight and Tuesday. For the
plains, looks like any chances for precipitation will hold off
until after 18Z Tuesday although some activity may begin to
encroach upon the western fringe of the I-25 corridor after 12Z.

The KCOS and KPUB TAF sites are expected to remain VFR through
the period, with precipitation chances generally holding off until
after 18Z Tuesday. KALS, however, will likely see periods of snow
move through at times tonight into Tuesday, especially after 06Z.
KALS TAF will need to be updated to reflect this higher probability
of snow. Will take care of this shortly.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ226>237.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for COZ058-
060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



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