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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

SEE AVIATION SECTION

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

...MUCH QUIETER...

MUCH DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
PER RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE AIR
MASS IS STILL ADEQUATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  RADAR HAS INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...WITH A FEW CELLS BEING
GENERATED OVER THE RANGES FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  EXPECT
THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVER THE SAN JUANS...ALONG WITH INCREASED DEVELOPED OVER
THE OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES.  ALSO...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.  THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS COULD TRY TO DRIFT OUT ONTO THE WESTERNMOST PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THIS IS REALLY A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE.

TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH WARMER...WITH ISOLATED...HIGH BASED CONVECTION
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIR MASS
BEING SO MUCH WARMER...ALMOST 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE MOISTURE BEING HIGHER BASED...THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS WILL TURN TO LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS
SHOULD REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  THE MAIN THING
WILL BE THE RETURN OF TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT.  SO LONG FOR NOW
SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

A RETURN TO A MORE TRANQUIL AND WARMER METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AT 06Z SATURDAY BUILDS OVER
NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO COLORADO FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. LONGER
RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
THURSDAY.

ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE CWFA DURING THE LONGER TERM TO WARRANT ISOLATED PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...WITH UPTICKS IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CAPE...LI AND SHEAR VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT(IF
THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN).

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH
20C AT TIMES ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN COLORADO TO
EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND EVEN THREATEN
THE CENTURY MARK AT TIMES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE 3 TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
17-18Z TOMORROW MIDDAY...AND LINGER OVER THE MTS THROUGH 03Z. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LTG.

UPDATED TO ADD THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO
THE FAR E PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...AND SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO EL PASO COUNTY. THEREFORE...INTRODUCED IFR CLOUD
DECK AT KCOS BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED
THROUGH 13-14Z. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE