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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010513
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  MAIN AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE IS TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ON SUNDAY. OTHER AFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE IS TO INCREASE WINDS
AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.  CAA ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET AGAIN BY
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE PLAINS.  HAVE KEPT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW AS STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE PERSISTENT SNOW PACK WILL
HINDER MIXING AND HEATING.  WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY STARTING LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

CHALLENGING LONGER TERM FORECAST WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGIC MESSAGE
DURING THE LONGER TERM BEING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AS WELL AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES AS WELL
AS GUSTY WINDS.

INITIALLY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY(OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPER SNOW
COVERED AREAS...SUCH AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY/ALAMOSA WHERE COLD
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL) THANKS TO GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW COVERING THE REGION.

GUSTY(IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AT TIMES) PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS PROJECTED FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL CHANGES THEN OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHED BY
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WYOMING HIGH PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR EXAMPLE AT TIME...WILL DEPICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SOME 20F TO 30F COOLER DURING THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME-FRAME WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAYS ANTICIPATED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.  ALSO...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER OVER MANY AREAS EACH MORNING FROM THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED...INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN POINTS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO NIL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ALSO GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.

FINALLY...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DECREASING POPS
SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

KALS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
KEEP FOG GOING IN AND OUT OF KALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF 1/4 VIS AND
CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 200 FEET. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COUPLE
OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPUB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY