Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Modest fetch of monsoon moisture remains across CO on western
fringes of the upper high positioned across the central plains.
Meanwhile, low level jet across the southeast corner of the state
has initiated isolated thunderstorms early this morning. These
should diminish towards dawn according to various high res models.

For today, looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms as models show a weak shortwave just south of the
4 corners region early this morning lifting across the area during
the afternoon.  This combined with afternoon heating will trigger
thunderstorms over the mountains during the late morning, with
activity spreading eastward across the plains during the afternoon
and evening.  Overall CAPE and deep layer shear looks relatively
weak today, so just as in past few days, main storm threats will be
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. However, gusty outflow winds
up to 50 mph and some small hail will be possible with any isolated
stronger storms.  Temperatures today should climb into the 90s
around 103 across the plains with 80s across the valleys and
generally 60s and 70s across the mountains.

The upper trof will move across the northern U.S. Rockies tonight
which will allow a cold front to advance southward towards CO late
in the period. It will stay well north of southern CO during the
tonight period, but a southerly low level jet will set up once again
across the plains and could keep thunderstorms going across the far
southeast corner of the state past midnight. Will also maintain some
isolated pops across the mountains through the overnight hours with
monsoon plume still over the area. Lows should stay on the mild side
given some persistent convective debris cloudiness and light
westerly drainage flow in and near the mountains.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Primary meteorological concerns during the longer term are pops,
temperatures and the potential for strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms at times.

Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that upper ridging initially located
over west-central New Mexico on Saturday will become centered
over/near the 4-Corners region into Tuesday before shifting into
east-central Utah by next Thursday.

Adequate atmospheric moisture in combination with passing upper
disturbances and surface boundaries will allow generally
scattered...primarily afternoon into evening showers and
thunderstorms to be noted over the forecast district from this
weekend into next week.

At this appears that the highest potential of more
widespread precipitation should be noted from this weekend into
early next week as deeper atmospheric moisture interacts with north
to northeasterly surface surges during this time-frame.

In addition to the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized
flash flooding, the potential also exists for strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms at times(favoring eastern
locations of the forecast district)...primarily from Sunday into
early next week as projected localized capes, LI`s and Bulk Shear
values challenge 1700 J/KG...-4C and 30 knots at times.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures should continue to run
at/or above late July climatological averages during the longer
term in combination with generally low-grade gradient winds over
the majority of the forecast district.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours with
TSRA developing over the mountains early this afternoon, then
spreading toward the terminals during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Will include a VCTS in all tafs from 20z-21z until
02z-03z, with gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts the main storm
threat. Activity should shift east of the I-25 corridor by 02-03z
with gradual clearing overnight.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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