


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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999 FXUS65 KPUB 071124 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 524 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms will be possible today across the southeast plains. - Warming and drying trend into the middle of the week. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the week and through the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 322 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Current water vapor and upper air analysis continues to indicate modest westerly flow aloft across the region with upper high pressure located across the Desert Southwest into southwestern New Mexico, as short wave energy translates across the faster zonal flow across the Northern Tier at this time. Blended total water vapor imagery continues to indicate PWATs running 120-150 percent of normal across the Northern Rockies into eastern Colorado and the High Plains, with increased available moisture starting to circulate under the upper high into western New Mexico at this time. Regional radars as of 1 am are indicating scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving east across the southeast plains, with stratus starting to fill in across the southeast mtns and into the mid and upper Arkansas River valley at this time. Temperatures were in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Latest model data supports flow aloft becoming more northwest through tonight, as the upper high builds north to south of the Four Corners region as the latest Northern Tier short wave digs down across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains. With a similar set up to yesterday, south to southeast low level flow will keep low level moisture in place and dew pts in the upper 40s to upper 50s and progged cape of 1500-2000 j/kg, highest across the far southeast plains and into northeast Colorado this afternoon. With the main short wave further north, shear aloft does not look as strong as yesterday. However, with 25 to 35 kts of bulk shear, strongest across the northern portions of the southeast plains, there will again be the potential for strong to severe storms, producing gusty winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter. The latest SPC outlook has areas east of the I-25 Corridor a slight risk, with the marginal risk back across the eastern mtns and into the I-25 Corridor. Convection initiation will again be across the higher terrain, with storms moving east south east into a more unstable environment across the far southeast plains. Further West, there will be a slight increase in available moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms spreading over and near the higher terrain. These storms will be more high based with gusty outflow winds being the main threat. Temperatures will again be near to slightly above seasonal readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the plains, in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain and into the mid 80s across the high mtn valleys, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across the plains and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Warmer and drier conditions remain in the offing for Tuesday, as the upper high continues to slowly drift north into south central Colorado. There will be enough residual moisture to support more isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms, through the potential for strong to marginally severe storms will remain in place across the southeast plains, with marginal shear profiles of 25-30kts. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly warmer than today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 322 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Tuesday Night - Wednesday: For part of the midweek period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, ridging will be in place over the region. While subsidence will be in place with this feature, diurnal upsloping, along with forcing along any boundaries, is expected to be in place. With some forcing mechanisms, and residual moisture in place from previous day`s convection, showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom late each afternoon and persist through the evening hours, before finally dissipating during the overnight hours. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest along and east of the eastern mountains, where moisture content will be best. Like the past several days, a couple of strong to severe storms will be possible each day, particularly Tuesday evening, with wind gusts around 60 mph being the primary hazard given high bases and large DCAPE values, though frequent lightning, hail, and periods of heavy rain will also be possible with any stronger storms. Otherwise, periods of increased cloud cover are anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours, with relatively light winds expected through this period. For temperatures, above seasonal values are expected for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. Thursday - Sunday: For the late half of the week and through the weekend, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though with a pattern change. The aforementioned ridge in place will flatten Thursday, with westerly to northwesterly flow prevailing over the area after. This pattern will bring a slight increase in forcing, though richer moisture will still remain mostly limited to the eastern plains. Still, with the uptick in forcing, and what moisture is in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are still anticipated, with the greatest coverage remaining along the mountains where forcing will be maximized. Beyond all of that, winds are expected to become more breezy given the increased flow overhead, along with the daily increase in afternoon and evening cloud cover. As for temperatures, Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days, with above seasonal temperatures expected. Saturday and Sunday a cool down back to around seasonal is anticipated given a cold front passage late Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Low clouds around KCOS and KPUB will thin mid morning, with mid to high level clouds increasing during the afternoon for all three sites. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain this afternoon, and push east. Some of these storms may impact the terminal sites, particularly KCOS and KPUB. Strong outflow winds around 60 mph, hail of 1 to 2 inches, and frequent lightning will be possible with any stronger storms. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SIMCOE