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000
FXUS65 KPUB 011743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 9 AM TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. ALSO ADDED SOUTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AS WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE BROADMOOR AREA...AND ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY...
LOOK FAIRLY LOW. ANTICIPATE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EAT AWAY AT
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...BUT DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL
11 AM. FARTHER EAST...GETTING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QUICK CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATING THAT PCPN OUT THAT WAY
IS VERY LIGHT AND NOT POSING PROBLEMS FOR THE ROADS JUST YET. FOG
IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS WITH ACCRETION OF
ICE ON COLD SURFACES SUCH AS WIND SHIELDS. WILL BE INTERROGATING
REMAINING 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
-KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST HRRR WINDS/TEMPS INTO NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALONG THE CONTDVD...WIDE RANGING TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...AS OF 4 AM...COLD AIR HAS WORKED BACK TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY AREAS AOA 6000 FEET WERE IN THE COLD AIR (20S)
WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE WERE IN THE WARM AIR (40S TO AROUND 50F). THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UP THE PALMER DVD.

MTN VALLEYS WERE WARM AS BUENA VISTA...SALIDA AND A GOOD PART OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WERE ABOVE FREEZING (35-40F). HEAVY SNOW WAS
LIKELY POUNDING THE MTNS (KGJT RADAR IS OUT OF COMMISSION AND WONT
RETURN TO SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY). WOLF CREEK OB HAS BEEN
REPORTING HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG ACROSS N EL PASO
COUNTY. KCOS WAS ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
BEING OBSERVED AT SCHRIEVER AFB.

TODAY...

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS WITH 6-12" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVY SNOW...5-10"...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SANGRES.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST...BUT I DO
NOT THINK IT WILL GO AS FAR EAST AS GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE WARMEST
AIR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET
ON THE PLAINS. MONUMENT HILL WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN DOWNTOWN
COLORADO SPRINGS. PUEBLO WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN PUEBLO.
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND PINON CANYON WILL BE IN THE 60S WHILE EADS
AND LAMAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S. SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
TRICKY...MAX TEMPS THERE I HAVE IN THE 40S...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THEY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS...IT WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE WEST.

AS FOR PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT ALL AREAS MAY SEE PASSING
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LIES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATER TODAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PART OF THE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL AFFECT AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF WOLF CREEK PASS DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER. WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY...SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 4-8" WILL FALL IN THE SAN JUANS S OF WOLF
CREEK...AND 3-7" WILL FALL IN THE C MTNS. A FEW MORE INCHES WILL
FALL ON TOP OF THE SANGRES.

THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW BUT OVERALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SE CO. THE
ENTIRE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE COLD UPSLOPE AND EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS/20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

...COLD SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL CO AT 12Z SUN...AND NR THE
KS BORDER BY 18Z. EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE MT AREAS
SUN MORNING...MAYBE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT SOME LIGHT
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS...THERE WILL BE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PEAKS SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MTS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

MAIN QUESTION SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR
A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EWD...MAINLY INTO KS AND THE
PANHANDLES SUN MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER. STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW OVR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND AREAS E OF I-25. NOT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL QUITE YET
FOR SN OVER THE I-25 ZONES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WARMEST WX WILL BE IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS WHICH COULD SEE SOME MID 40S.

WE DRY OUT MON-TUE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES OVER OUR AREA. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...THE FIRST MON
AFTERNOON AND A SECOND TUE NIGHT. THESE COULD BRING SOME RENEWED
SHSN TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUE OR
EARLY WED...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.

AFTER A DRY AND WARM THU...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI FROM THE NW. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS...GIVING
US A WARMER AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 20Z FOR KCOS AND
KPUB BEFORE FOG LIFTS AND CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
MEANWHILE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN FZFG...FZDZ. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS. KALS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 40-45 KTS) AND CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH CIGS AND VIS DROPPING BACK INTO THE IFR
TO LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE EVENING. AREAS OF FZDZ...SLEET...AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
WHERE CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN LIFR. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061-064-
067-073-075.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ087-
088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT