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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE...BUT AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR...RAP13 SHOW NO QPF THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EITHER.  UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO DECREASE
POPS AND TO FINE TUNE SKY GRIDS AND FRONT END OF DATABASE TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WARMING TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AT THIS TIME. SNOW COVER ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
CONTINUES TO MELT WITH A SMORGASBORD OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EMBEDDED WAVE
CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO DROP ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF DIMINISHING CLOUDS
AND HOW MUCH SNOW COVER REMAINS AND HAVE KEPT THE COOLEST READINGS
IN NORMAL COOL VALLEY LOCALES.

WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH INDUCED LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WARM AREAWIDE WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A TAD ACROSS AREAS WHICH HAD THE MOST SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAIN WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS
RATHER SCANT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.  H7
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 0 AND +2C ON SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
+2 TO +5 C RANGE BY MONDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA FOR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT KICKS OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  THIS
SHOULD START TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH TIME...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  EVENTUALLY...THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES INTO THE PLAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  LATEST RUNS LOOK DRY FOR SOUTHEAST
CO...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS.  BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TOWARDS THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY OR BEYOND. AT THE
SAME TIME...WE WILL BE WATCHING SYSTEMS DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GLANCING BY NORTHEAST CO AND SENDING COLD FRONTS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GFS AND EC LOOK FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR FRIDAY....BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO STORM TRACKS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN