Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 081056
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Primary near/short term meteorological issues over the forecast district include pops ending this morning, winds, critical fire weather issues and temperatures.

Many locations across the forecast district early this morning are
experiencing above seasonal temperatures, thanks to gusty winds and
cloud cover. Some recent higher reported wind gusts early this
morning include 47 mph at the Buena Vista airport and 46 mph wind
gusts near Truckton and Colorado Springs respectively.

In addition, recent radar returns and real-time data indicate light
precipitation over primarily far southern sections of the forecast
district early this morning.

Latest computer simulations, forecast model soundings and real-time
data suggest that light precipitation will be decreasing/ending by
mid-morning.  Gusty winds are anticipated today and when combined
with projected low relative humidity values and existing dry fuels
over many locations will maintain existing Red Flag Warning over
eastern locations from later this morning into this afternoon.

Regarding temperatures, project that maximum temperatures this
afternoon over eastern locations will run some 15F to 20F degrees
warmer than readings noted yesterday, while western sections should
experience afternoon temperatures generally some 8F to 16F degrees
warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Overall, not much change in the large scale pattern in the long
term. A dominant ridge will remain along the west coast of the CONUS
while a trough will be over the midwest. Although this pattern will
persist, it will gradually become less amplified with time. As for
sensible weather aspects, it will remain dry with temperatures
running 10 to 15F above normal throughout the entire period. A
modest short wave is forecast to move through the ridge around
midweek (GFS and EC show this although there are timing differences)
and this will cool temps during this time period, and may bring a
snow shower or two to the high country.

In a nutshell, unseasonably warm and unseasonably dry through this
period. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Gusty winds nearing/exceeding 25 knots at times are anticipated this
afternoon at KALS, with 35 to 40+ knot wind gusts at times projected
at KPUB and KCOS respectively.  Otherwise, VFR conditions should be
noted at the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites during the next 24
hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



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