Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221701
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Deep southwest flow will remain in place across southern Colorado
today and tonight as upper level low pressure shifts slowly from the
Pacific Northwest into southern Canada. Dryline over the eastern
plains this morning will shift eastward through the day, reaching
the KS border by mid to late afternoon. While best moisture and
instability will likely reside in KS, dryline will be close enough
to the border to warrant some low pops for tsra over a small sliver
of our southeast plain zones, with best chance for a storm over baca
county where models show low level moisture will be slowest to mix
out. Storms, if they develop, could become severe as 0-6km shear is
rather strong, though upper level winds have enough westerly
component to move most convection into KS rather quickly by evening.
Over the remainder of the area, a few high based tsra will be
possible over mainly the central mountains, though storms will
likely produce more wind than rain as low levels remain dry.
Remainder of the area will be dry and breezy to windy, with deep
mixing producing gusts in the 25-35 kt range at many locations. Max
temps will cool just a degree or two from Saturday`s readings as
mid level heights and temps fall slightly. Tonight, any convection
should shift east into KS, with most of the area precip free from
03z onward. Weak cold front will drop south across the plains
overnight, though only impact will be a shift to north winds along
and east of I25 by sunrise Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

...Weather becoming a bit more active by the end of the week...

Extended portion of the forecast looks fairly uneventful, with
temperatures near average for late May and generally low chances for
precipitation.

Deep upper low over AB Canada early in the period will migrate
slowly eastward during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area in a pattern of dry SW flow aloft. Temps Monday may be
tempered somewhat by a weak short wave moving through N CO...but
still likely to reach the low 80s across the plains. Only chance of
precip will be over the Pikes Peak region and upper Arkansas late in
the afternoon, and any weak convection should dissipate rather
quickly after sunset. By Tuesday, SW flow increases a bit and any
disturbances in the flow aloft look to remain well to our north...
so expect temps in the mid to upper 80s for the plains and 60s for
the higher terrain.

By Wed, the pattern starts to shift as a low pressure system at the
south end of the trough over Western N America begins to move into
the Central Rockies. Still a pretty warm day with temps staying
close to or slightly above average, but maybe a slightly better
chance of a few storms late in the day.

Thursday, the upper low moves across CO, and we should see an uptick
in the coverage of showers and storms, especially by evening as a
frontal boundary begins dropping southward across the plains. Latest
guidance indicates that despite the increased shear, CAPE will be on
the low side so the severe threat looks low at this time. By Friday,
the H5 circulation will move into KS and temps should cool to below
average with northerly flow across SE CO. Ridging and dry...warmer
weather will likely follow into next weekend. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1024 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry southwest flow will result in VFR over most of the flight
area for most of the forecast period. The far eastern plains,
along the eastern border, may see exception to this for a brief
period this afternoon and evening as storms fire up along a
dryline in this vicinity. Pilots may have to navigate dryline
storms in this area...generally 22z-02z. KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF
sites should remain VFR next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



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