Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260621
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1221 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Updated to cancel winter weather advisory across the Central
Mountains and updated pops based on on radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Currently...An upper low was located over the South Dakota/Wyoming
state line this afternoon, with a low pressure trough extending down
across Wyoming and Colorado. This was producing an extensive area of
shower activity across the forecast area, with snow showers for the
higher terrain and a rain snow mix along the I-25 corridor where a
few embedded thunderstorms have developed. The low was gradually
edging to the east, with northerly flow on the backside of the low
pushing cooler air down into the forecast area. Temps climbed into
the 40s and 50s for most locations before showers developed, then
temps dropped back down into the 30s and 40s.

Tonight...Activity has accelerated across the region this aftn as
the upper trough continues to slowly swing to the east. The initial
wave of abundant shower activity and isolated embedded thunderstorms
has begun to move off of the I-25 corridor, and what has happened
this aftn is that cooling from the rain quickly cooled the air and
made the switch over from rain to snow a rapid process. This will
likely repeat itself this evening as the second wave currently over
western CO moves into the forecast area. so far, showers have
cooperated and have stayed off area burn scars, and by this evening
when more activity develops it will likely be cool enough for the
pcpn to fall as snow. Ongoing highlights targeting the higher peaks
of the central mts, Wets and Sangres look good and will continue.
Look for anywhere from half an inch up to an inch of total liquid
possible for the lower elevations through the night, while the
higher peaks could see new snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches by
early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow...Models indicate shower activity really starts to shut off
around 12z as brisk n-nw flow settles in across the cwa. There will
be some lingering isolated showers over the central mts through the
morning, then by the aftn isolated activity is forecast to develop
once again over the higher terrain due to lingering moisture and
favorable nw flow. However, for the most part much of the forecast
area will be dry with max temps in the 50s to around 60F. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Wedensday night-Thursday night...Moderate to strong northwest flow
aloft progged across the region with another embedded disturbance
progged to translate across the Northern Rockies and out into the
Northern High Plains through the day Thursday. This will allow for
increasing coverage chances of showers across the ContDvd Wednesday
night, with scattered showers and a few possible thunderstorms
spreading south and east across the eastern plains through the day
Thursday. Higher elevations of the ContDvd could see snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches through the period and may need an
advisory with poor travel conditions developing overnight. Lesser
snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the rest of
the higher terrain. Breezy northwest winds will help warm temps
across the lower elevations into the 50s to lower 60s on Thursday
though may see spotty locales dropping to near the freezing mark late
Thursday night, with some clearing behind the passing system.

Friday-Saturday...All eyes turn to the next strong and dynamic
Spring Storm system which could bring heavy rain and snow to all of
south central and Southeast Colorado through Saturday night. The GFS
and its ensemble data, and the ECMWF continue to be the most bullish
on heavy rain and snow across the area, though have slowed timing a
tad of a deep upper low carving out across the four corners region
late Friday evening, which then slowly translates east across
northern New Mexico through the day Saturday and into Central High
Plains Saturday night. The GFS (-6C to -10C at H7) is a tad colder
the the the ECMWF (-4C to -8C at H7) but both support snow down
across all of the plains Friday night/Saturday morning, with best
accumulations across the Southeast Mountains.

The latest Canadian and especially the 18Z NAM runs, however,
continue to suggest the system splitting on Friday, with the main low
digging into the Desert SW Friday night as a strong back side jet
digs across the Great Basin. The Canadian does eventually bring the
low across northern New Mexico, though the digging jet core
suggested by the NAM could conceivably dig the low too far south and
leave the area under a broad upper trough, which would keep the area
cool with generally light showers through the weekend.

With that said, it still remains way too early to talk about
specific details on the track and the affects of this system across
the area, though peoples living in or planning travel across south
central and southeast Colorado this weekend will need to stay up to
date with the latest forecasts on this potentially high impact event.

Sunday-Tuesday...After a potential hard freeze across all of south
central and southeast Colorado Saturday night/Sunday morning, a slow
warming trend is progged across the area within a moderate west to
northwest flow regime. Models suggest another embedded wave moving
across the area late Monday and Tuesday, bringing chances of showers
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Rain with low VIS and CIGS will come to an end by 08z for most
areas, generally north to south. CIGS will improve throughout the
early morning hours. VFR conditions are expected at all three
sites by morning and will persist through Wednesday afternoon.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
COZ073-075-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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