Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY ARE
PROJECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A BASICALLY QUIET MORNING
GIVES WAY TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE STORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE.

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWFA
INTO TONIGHT.  WEAK UPPER ENERGY(APPEARS A BIT STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS WAVE) IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AND THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC CYCLE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE SIDE AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG...-7C AND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY. IN
ADDITION...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVR THE AREA ON TUE.
HOWEVER A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA.  THE
NAM SHOWS CAPE VALUES NR THE KS BORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KTS. IF STORMS DEVELOP THERE WL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THE FLOW OVR WY AND INT NE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU SERN CO WED
MORNING.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SERN CO FROM THE NORTH ON
WED...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. THE BEST INSTABILITY WED
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
SRN BORDER AREA. ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN IS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD WED AFTERNOON. THEN AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE WED EVENING...PCPN CHANCES INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...AND LINGER INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.

ON THU AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR CA...WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
FORECAST AREA.  PCPN CHANCES WL BE LOW THU AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.  THU NIGHT AND FRI AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE OVR SRN CA OR JUST OVR THE SRN CA COAST...WITH THE FORECAST
MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEREFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.

THERE IS THEN SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY WHAT WL HAPPEN WITH THE CA
UPR LOW.  THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SRN CA INTO NRN NV BY
00Z MON...WITH A DIRTY UPR RIDGE OVR CO.  THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
THE LOW FROM SRN CA FRI NIGHT AND INTO NV BY LATE SUN...BUT IT
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVR NV. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 1715Z...AND
EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS BEGINNING 19Z-20Z...WITH A
THREAT OF STORMS CONTINUING UNTIL 01Z-03Z. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL. TSRA DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING
WITH CLEARING MOST AREAS TOWARD 05Z-07Z. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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