Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Issued at 617 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Updated grids/zones to adjust POPs based on latest obs and high
res data. Looks like storms struggling to stay organized over the
SE Plains this eve. Could still see some marginally svr storms
through this eve, especially over the KS border counties. Wrn
portions look fairly dry this eve, with only ISOLD probabilities
for the higher terrain. Rose


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Convection developing on schedule over the mountains and I-25
corridor this afternoon, with a few storms spreading eastward along
the NM border as of 21z. Farther west, already hints of drier air
working into wrn CO, as convection looks fairly sparse along and
west of the Continental Divide. Over the eastern mountains and
plains late this afternoon and this evening, expect convection
coming off the mountains to congeal into another broken line as it
moves east of I-25, and with CAPES in the 1000-2000 J/KG range, a
couple strong/severe storms will be possible. Weakly organized MCS
then shifts slowly into KS by 06z, while most mountain convection
fades after sunset as best upper forcing shifts onto the plains.
Suspect NAM and GFS are holding on to convection a little too long
this evening and overnight, as mesoscale models shift activity
quickly in to KS by 03z, with only a few -shra lingering until 06z,
and will taper pops off slightly quicker than previous forecast.

On Monday, upper ridge slowly pushes westward through NM, with wly
flow bringing some slightly drier air into the region, especially
across nrn and western portions of the state. Suspect best
convective coverage will be over the east slopes of the Sangres and
along the NM border, as deeper moisture holds on and low level flow
stays weakly se. Far eastern plains may see very little in the way
of storms as old frontal boundary will lift northward into NE CO by
afternoon, keeping best moisture convergence fairly far to our
north. Max temps Mon look very similar to today most locations, with
readings near to slightly above seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The extended forecast remains unchanged with active weather
expected to continue, with the only down day being Wednesday.
Ensemble spreads are generally small with the overall pattern
with differences in the fine details.

Monday night through Tuesday...upper level high pressure overhead
will be retrograding west into the Great Basin by Tuesday night.
An upper disturbance will be transitioning across the region
Monday night with showers and thunderstorms ongoing over the
mountains, east into the I-25 corridor. Models are favoring the
eastern mountains, east across the Raton Mesa along the New Mexico
border. Expect activity to shift south and east overnight while
dissipating as it moves away from the area. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with flash flooding on burn scars a concern.

As the upper high retrogrades on Tuesday, another strong
disturbance will rotate south across Colorado. Initial storm
development will be over the mountains, and will shift eastward
across the plains during the evening hours. Abundant moisture and
southeasterly low level flow should help focus activity over the
eastern mountains, east into the I-25 corridor during the evening,
before this activity spreads east and dissipates overnight.
Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible with flash
flooding on burn scars a continued threat. Small hail and
gusty outflow winds will also be possible, but lack of shear and
instability should keep storms from becoming severe.

Wednesday...the upper level high will take residence over the
Great Basin by Wednesday. Weak energy and residual moisture caught
under the upper high will likely lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon and evening
hours. Lack of steering flow and forcing should keep coverage to a
minimum and anchored to the terrain.

Thursday through Sunday...the upper level high will continue to
sit over the Great Basin while a broad upper trough takes shape
over the Ohio Valley. This will force flow aloft northwesterly
with several disturbances moving across Colorado late in the week
and through the weekend. Each will bring the increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Steering flows will allow convection to
transition off the mountains and across the plains. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible under stronger storms. Outflow
boundaries and fronts, which models are having a hard time with,
will likely pool moisture over the plains and increase shower and
thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures are forecast to remain hot across the region through
the extended period. While highs will be slightly cooler, they are
still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s across the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A few spotty showers or storms will continue across the flight
area through the night. The primary threat from any storms will be
lightning. On Monday, weak monsoonal flow will continue the
chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms over the
mountains with lesser chances across the plains. Primary storm
threats will include lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph,
locally heavy rain and small hail. Flight conditions will be
mostly VFR over the next 24 hours, including the KCOS, KPUB and
KALS TAF sites. However, pilots may encounter MVFR, IFR and even
LIFR conditions in areas of precipitation.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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