Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 112255
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

...Snow Coming for the Continental Divide...

A Pacific storm system is crossing into the Great Basin this
afternoon.  This system will bring a period of moist, southwest flow
to the region that will deliver about 24 hours of orographic
(upslope) snowfall to the Continental Divide.  The San Juans should
do quite well with this event as they will be in the path of the
most direct and prolonged period of lift.  However, the La Garita,
the Sawatch and the Mosquito Ranges should also do pretty well over
the 24 hour event.  The eastern mountains will see snow showers move
through at times during the period but most of this activity will be
fleeting and confined to the highest elevations.  The remainder of
the forecast area will generally miss out on any precipitation from
this event.  It`ll be a bit windy over the southwest mountains, the
San Luis Valley, and southern/eastern parts of the plains on Monday
in response to the system moving through the mountains. Gusts up to
around 40 mph will be possible.  Due to the added mixing in the
atmosphere tied to the system moving through, temperatures across
the area should show a nice warm up from today`s readings with most
areas getting back to average or even above average levels for this
time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

There is still a lack of confidence beyond Thursday. Both the
operational models could not be more different and ensembles
spreads increase significantly Thursday and beyond.

Monday night through Wednesday...models in good agreement with
with through this period. An upper disturbance is forecast to drop
south across along the west coast before falling offshore. Energy
will be moving across Colorado Monday night before dissipating
Tuesday morning. Beyond Tuesday, there will likely be periods of
light snowfall over the Continental Divide. Areas over the
Southern San Juan Range will see the highest totals, while areas
over the Central Mountains see lesser amounts. As the upper low
falls off shore. Temperatures will be moderating across the Plains
with 50s for highs on Tuesday, then into the 60s to lower 70s on
Wednesday. In addition, the jet energy moving over the region will
lead to gusty winds initially over the mountains, down into the
lee slopes by dawn on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...the GFS wants to bring an upper level
disturbance across the Desert Southwest and east across the region
on Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF brings an upper level
disturbance south and east out of the Pacific Northwest and across
Colorado Thursday into Friday. The GFS track would bring a round
of mountain snow to the area. The ECMWF track would bring a decent
round of snow the for the whole CWA Thursday into Friday.

Beyond Friday and through the weekend, we will likely see mild
conditions with highs in the 50s. Generally dry conditions are
expected across the area. But this could all change by the time
the weekend arrives.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 308 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

Weak ridging over the flight area will result in generally VFR
conditions through 06z. After 06z, an approaching disturbance
crossing the Great Basin will begin to draw up moisture into western
Colorado. This will result in the development of snow along the
Continental Divide. The snow along the Divide will start out spotty
at 06z but then steadily increase and become widespread by 15z and
continue through the forecast period.

For the terminals...KCOS and KPUB will see an increase in mid and
high level clouds after 06z but will likely remain VFR through the
forecast period. KALS will also see an increase in mid and high
clouds after about 06z. Forecast models show very weak amounts of
energy moving across the terminal vicinity beginning around 09z
tonight. There is an outside chance the disturbance could result in
VCSH near the terminal at times beginning around 09z tonight and
continuing through the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ058-060-066.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



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