Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
622 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RAISED POPS OVER COLORADO SPRINGS FOR LIGHT SNOW THAT IS
OCCURRING. ALSO...BROUGHT FRESH OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END
OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG UPPER JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD COLORADO. SECONDARY
UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER
COLD POOL ALOFT HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP INTENSITY TODAY
VERSUS YESTERDAY IS THAT DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ARE MUCH LOWER...LEADING TO MORE VIRGA AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.

TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND INSTABILITY WANING AFTER SUNSET...WILL LET WINTER STORM WARNING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPIRE...AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. MAY STILL SOME PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS...MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL END POPS OVER
ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES BY 06Z. SOME CONCERN ABOUT HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL IN THE LEE OF THE RAMPART RANGE/PIKES PEAK
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER INCREASE INTO THE 40-50
KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCAL WRF CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOUNTAIN TOP
STABLE LAYER/INVERSION IS WEAK THROUGH 12Z AND DOESN`T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS. WILL NUDGE UP WIND
GUSTS SOMEWHAT OVER TELLER COUNTY/PIKES PEAK AFTER 06Z...BUT KEEP
SPEED BELOW HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS AND A RENEWED BOUT OF
WAVE CLOUDINESS TO KEEP MINS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY...UPPER JET IS OVERHEAD AT 12Z...THEN PUSHES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOWARD 00Z. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SAWATCH/MOSQUITO RANGES BEGINNING AT 21Z...THOUGH EXPECT HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. NORTHERN END OF THE SAWATCH
LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD
PASS. MAIN CONCERN ELSEWHERE WILL BE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL...AS
WINDS AROUND 700MB INCREASE TO 50-60 KTS BY MIDDAY. SHEAR PROFILE
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS WITH STRONG JET OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...AND WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF BRUTE
FORCE MIXING TO CRANK SPEEDS UP INTO THE HIGHLIGHT RANGE...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WATCH/WARNING FOR NOW. USUAL NW GAP FLOW WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE ARK VALLEY/NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY/WALSENBURG
AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT PLUS
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILDER MAX TEMPS MANY AREAS...THOUGH
GUIDANCE MAXES LOOK SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO COOLER
MODEL CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL LOOK TO OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES. ACROSS
THE PLAINS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM...GENERATE LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND DROP
IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT THE PLAINS DRY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT ANY SNOW REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS THE
PLAINS AFTER A COLD START...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.

THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW LOW 70S MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OFF
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND START TO MOVE INTO TO THE ROCKIES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RADAR AT 22Z SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS EXPECT ANY MVFR CIGS/VIS TO BE
BRIEF WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. ONCE SNOW ENDS 01Z-03Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO THE
DAY TUE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT KCOS 09Z-15Z AS MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN ALL TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON...SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.

ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS ALONG
WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF K7BM WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING...WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW LIKELY LINGERING
FARTHER NORTH.  THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE LOCALIZED MTN
OBSCURATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING VFR AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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