Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

An upper level trof over the state today, will move east of the area
this evening.  Generally dry northwest flow aloft will be found over
the state tonight, becoming more westerly on Sunday. There could be
a few light snow showers this evening over the central CO mtns,
otherwise the weather is expected to be dry tonight and Sunday.

Some low clouds have been covering the far sern plains today, but as
the upper trof moves out of the area this evening, these clouds are
expected to move out as well.  The San Luis Valley also has seen
some low clouds today which have been gradually decreasing. Although
some of the low clouds could continue in the San Luis Valley this
evening, they are expected to dissipate by late night.

Low temps tonight are expected to generally be a little below
average, with readings in the teens across the southeast plains,
around zero in the San Luis Valley, and in the single digits over
the mtns.  High temps on Sun should be around average over the
southeast plains, where readings will be in the 40s to around 50.
The Upper Arkansas River Valley should see highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.  The San Luis Valley is expected to to have slightly
cooler than average temps, with highs in the upper 20s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Much colder with a chance of snow for the plains Tuesday night
into Wednesday...

Zonal flow is expected early in the extended period with
temperatures warming nicely Monday on the plains of southeast
Colorado. Areas of brisk winds are also possible...especially in the
Central Colorado mountains. Orographic snow showers are also
possible on the favored slopes of the Central Colorado mountains.
Highs Monday will warm into the 50s on the plains with 20s and 30s
in the mountains and high valleys.

The trof moving through the northern plains Monday evening drags a
cold front through the southeast plains. This front should bring
colder air to the region, but little in the way of precipitation. On
Tuesday, a secondary system begins digging south through the Great
Basin. Initially, the snow will be over the Continental Divide and
western areas. For the plains, the cold air is fairly shallow
initially, but with time the cold air deepens and upslope flow
increases during the evening. The left front quadrant of the jet
will also move over Colorado Tuesday night and we should begin to
see areas of banded snow develop overnight on the plains. The snow
lingers into Wednesday on the plains before the jet and trof shift
farther east into the plains and snowfall comes to an end. High
temperatures Tuesday will be fairly tricky, with shallow cold air
over the northeast portion of the CWA and downslope winds keeping
temperatures a little warmer over the foothills and southern I-25

Very cold air, fresh snow cover, and clearing skies should lead to
lows Thursday morning in the single digits to around 10 below zero.
It will remain cold Thursday with highs only in the 20s to around 30
on the plains and teens in the mountains. On Friday...the upper
level ridge builds back over Colorado with highs warming into the
40s to around 50 degrees at the lower elevations with 30s in the

Models are fairly progressive with the next trof moving into WY/CO
Saturday with snow chances returning to the mountains. Current
forecast keeps warmer temperatures on the plains Saturday, but will
have to monitor future model runs for changes in timing with this
system. Stark


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions expected at KCOS and KPUB tonight through Sunday
night, with diurnally driven winds generally under 10kts. At KALS,
enough snow cover around the terminal to help in fog generation,
despite the lack of low clouds/fog in any statistical or model
forecasts. Given CIG/VIS is already vv002/1/2sm, will keep
CIGS/VIS in the LIFR category through the night into mid-morning
on Sun, though some brief periods of VFR may still be possible as
fog will be very shallow and localized. Fog should dissipate mid
to late morning Sun with VFR in the afternoon and evening.




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