Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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017
FXUS65 KPUB 290447
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1047 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Long loop of GOES-R and regional radar mosaic indicates wave
wrapping around the upper low was moving through srn CO late this
evening, with fairly strong suppression of precip behind it as it
travels nwrd through the area. Can also see the main upper low
drift well south across NM, pulling the better dyanmics southward
into srn NM/wrn TX. Still expect light precip to fill back in
over the plains and eastern mountains overnight, as depicted by
the HRRR/NAM/GFS, though snowfall rates most locations will be
less than earlier forecasts. Also appears snow will be lighter/end
quicker Wed as low stays fairly far south. For this update, will
keep highlights intact, but continue to push snow amounts down for
all areas, including srn mountains and I-25 corridor.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Latest HRRR and 00z NAM suggest snow/highlights generally on
track, especially for the southern mountains where snow levels
were falling and heavy precip will continue. Warning for
Teller/nrn El Paso counties looks a little less promising, with
only light precip so far this evening and models suggesting
rather intermittent precip the remainder of the night. Still think
there is the possibility for some low end warning accums by mid-
morning Wed, with both NAM and HRRR showing a small area of
heavier snow (storm total of around 8") over nrn El Paso county
through mid-morning Wed, along with some 30-40 mph winds. Will
keep warnings in place, though will continue to nudge amounts
downward toward the low end of warning range, especially for
Teller County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Models in fairly good consensus with the upper low taking the
more southern track across central NM. This is still a favorable
track for southeast CO...and it still appears best forcing and
isentropic upglide will affect southern portions of the southeast
mountains tonight. Have shaded down snow amounts for Teller county
and Pikes Peak a bit...though it still looks like a good 8 to 14
inches of snow will be possible with the heaviest falling across
the northeast facing slopes. Higher elevations of Pikes Peak
should fair a little better. The big winners with this event still
appears to be the Sangre De Cristo and Wet mountains where a
combination of dynamics and northeast upslope flow should push
snowfall totals into the 1-2 foot range though local areas could
see up to 3 feet from this storm. The Palmer Divide and Raton
Ridge should also see some appreciable amounts of snow with
amounts in the 5 to 12 inch range. Have added Eastern Las Animas
county into a winter weather advisory for late tonight through
Wednesday morning as latest models show a rain snow switch with a
window for heavy snowfall late tonight through Wednesday morning.

As for snow levels...model soundings still suggest rather high
snow levels this afternoon and evening...around 8500-9000
feet...and given the convective nature to the event through this
evening...with CAPE up to 400 j/kg...will still need to monitor
the lower elevations of the newer burn scars until snow levels
drop through this evening. By 06z...snow levels should be dropping
to around 6000 feet...and by 12z...could see snow levels drop
briefly to around 5500-5000 feet by morning. Still looks like an
all rain event for the greater Pueblo area...though some flakes
mixing in during the morning will still be a possibility. After
07z-08z...high res models show northerly flow off the Palmer
Divide winning out over the dynamics aloft...with precipitation
waning off during the early morning hours north of highway 50.

Precipitation will hang on longer down along the Raton and eastern
plains as the upper low pulls eastward through the TX Panhandle
into NW OK and southern KS. Snow levels will rise again so eastern
Las Animas county will probably shift back over to rain...so
advisory will come down by noon. Overall QPF totals should range
between .75 to 1.5 inches across the southeast mountains and
plains...with some areas picking up 2.0 inches or a little more. A
good precipitation event to help mitigate the recent drought
conditions. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Active weather pattern continues through the extended as the next
closed low drops through NV/UT Thursday night and tracks more
slowly eastward across NM and southern CO through the weekend.
Still some differences with the storm track with this one...but
looks like another potential heavy precipitation producer for
southern CO...with the current track suggesting the higher amounts
may be shifted a bit northward from the current storm. Once
again...heavy mountain snows and lower elevation rain will
accompany this storm. GFS suggests heaviest snow for the southeast
mountains in the Saturday-Saturday night period. Have shaded pops
upwards into the likely category for these periods. This storm
lingers a little longer than the past couple...then another system
takes a more northern track across CO in the Monday night early
Tuesday period. Overall the active pattern continues. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Overview...
There is a low pressure system currently located over north
central New Mexico propagating easterly as time progresses. The
major weather concern is precipitation, which will affect ALS,
COS, and PUB.

ALS...
Generally there will be northerly/northeasterly flow throughout
most of the forecast period. Precipitation will start out as rain,
transitioning to snow during the late evening/ overnight hours.
Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR conditions overnight. Flight
categories improve to VFR in the late morning hours.

COS...
Rain will transition to snow during the late evening/overnight
hours. During the precipitation event, MVFR conditions will be
experienced, improving to VFR in the late morning hours. The
northerly winds become gusty during the late evening and will
continue to be gusty throughout the forecast period.

PUB...

Rain will be observed during the evening and the overnight hours.
Flight conditions will degrade to MVFR conditions until the late
morning hours when the flight category becomes VFR. The northerly
winds remain constant throughout, becoming gusty later this
evening and remain gusty for the rest of the forecast period.
Skelly


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ058>061-
063-065>068.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ072-073-076-
078>082-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ074-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ087-088.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SKELLY



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