Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Thunderstorms Primarily Along and North of a Line from Creede to
Westcliffe to Calhan...

High pressure has bulged westward a bit, shifting the main monsoon
plume west and northward and bringing drier, more subsident air to
most of the southeast Colorado plains.  So far this afternoon,
storms are forming over the La Garitas and the central Colorado
mountains, pretty much on track with model forecasts.  As the
afternoon progresses into the evening, high res models have the
convection edging gradually south and eastward with time.  By this
evening, convection should be firing generally along and north of a
line from Creede to Westcliffe to Calhan.  Primary risks will
continue as in previous days including lightning, gusty winds, heavy
rain and flash flooding on burn scars and urban areas.  Most of the
plains south and east of Pueblo will not see any convection this
evening.  The models have most activity ending by midnight if not
sooner.  The weather scenario for tomorrow looks pretty much the
same as today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Center of upper level high pressure briefly drifts east in the
Mississippi Valley Fri/Sat, then reforms over the wrn U.S.
beginning Sun. This should allow an influx of deeper moisture into
srn CO from late Fri into at least Sun, leading to a greater
coverage of tsra area-wide, especially Sat/Sun. Aiding in
convection over the eastern mountains and plains while be a
reasonably strong cold front, which will lie along the Palmer Dvd
by late Fri, then slowly drop south toward the NM border by Sat
evening. Suspect best chance for storms Fri will be over the
Pikes Peak area back into the Central mountains, then a widespread
threat for stronger storms and heavy rainfall over the entire
area Sat as near 60f dewpoints slosh westward on the plains.
Organized heavy rain threat may then sink south toward NM on Sun
as surface boundary ends up fairly far south and cooler air
stabilizes the plains somewhat, though with low levels remaining
moist and weak upslope gradient persisting, sct tsra look
possible over much of the region. After one more hot day on Fri,
temps cool 5-10f over much of the region Sat/Sun as heights fall
and cooler/moister air spreads across the state.

Model solutions begin to differ early next week with respect to
the position/strength of the upper high, with GFS now more
amplified with the ridge over the Rockies, keeping flow across CO
more nly and suppressing deeper moisture south and west. ECMWF
slighltly more diffuse with the ridge, allowing moisture to
remain in place Mon/Tue with continued -tsra chances both days. At
this point will keep a standard summer forecast in place Mon-Wed,
with daily chances for convection most locations, especially over
the mountains. Max temps will begin a slow climb back to around
average levels many locations by mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will impact portions of the
flight area this evening. The majority of the activity will be along
and north of a line from Creede to Westcliffe to Calhan. South of
the line, isolated storms will be possible. Most of the plains south
and east of Pueblo will remain free of thunderstorms. Primary storm
risks will include lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain and local
small hail. CIGS and VSBYS will range anywhere from MVFR to LIFR
through areas of precipitation.

The KALS and KPUB TAF sites will likely be south of the convection
this evening. KCOS, on the other hand, will be near the southern
edge of the convection and could see a storm near or at the
terminal, primarily 22z-02z.




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