Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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213
FXUS65 KPUB 162156
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
356 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

SOMEWHAT IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION DURING THE SHORT-TERM(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AS CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...BELOW SEASONAL MID-MAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACTIVITY AT TIMES.

WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS ABOVE
10000 FEET AS WELL AS THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE AND EASTERN SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA...PV
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WARM TO NEAR MID-MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING.
SECONDARY AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY IS SUGGESTED BY THE
MODELS.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS CAN BE A WET PERIOD OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO GET ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTEAD...ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CURRENT QPF GRIDS HAVE A 24 TOTAL
OF AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF CONVECTION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
PROBLEMS WITH FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR OVER
THE AREAS TUESDAY. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH RELATIVELY
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES BOTH DAYS OVER THE REGION. ON
THURSDAY...THE EC SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION. DIFFICULT TO GET VERY SPECIFIC FOR BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE PLAINS IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN AS A STRONG
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC...BUT THESE DAYS COULD BE ACTIVE WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SEVERE CONVECTION.--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING(DUE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL) IN AND NEAR THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONPLACE AT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SITES INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77



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