Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 071728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

ONE MORE HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT.  FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE
NRN U.S. ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SFC LEE TROF
WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS DO NOT LOOK VERY
STRONG...THEY WILL ATTAIN MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH H7 TEMPS +18C TO +19C...ANOTHER DAY OF 100+ DEGREE READINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MTN AREAS WILL SEE
70S AND 80S WITH SOME AROUND 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE 30S AND
UPPER 20S.  THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
BASED...AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.  A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF RAINFALL.

SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/BEHIND THROUGH FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN KEPT ISOLATED POPS PINNED UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARDS MORNING.  SOUTHWEST MTS MAY ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MODEST
MONSOON PLUME ALOFT.  PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND
POPS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.

UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
00Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH INTO UTAH AND COLORADO BY
THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...NORTHERLY SURGES...(HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL/EFFICIENCY) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.

ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DAILY
OROGRAPHIC HEATING CYCLE AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INCREASED POPS AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER
TERM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A CONCERN AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR/EXCEED ONE INCH AT TIMES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR AREA BURN SCARS AS WELL AS OTHER LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES DURING THE
LONGER TERM.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE EARLY TO MID
JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES(OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY) ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUT FLOW WINDS UP
TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...THOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
VFR TO MVFR CATEGORY. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN


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