Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1015 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

BASED ON ADDITIONAL DATA...ADDED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SPANISH PEAKS AND RATON MESA REGION TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

GIVEN SREF AND NAM GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE S MTNS...INCLUDING PIKES PEAK FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO
THU EVENING. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER WX HILITES FOR
THE PLAINS ADJ TO THE S MTNS...POSSIBLY WATCHES FOR THE RATON
MESA AREA AND ADVISORIES FOR N EL PASO COUNTY. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD
SHIELD JUST BARELY OVER THE CO/NM LINE INTO SOUTHERN CO. HAVE SEEN A
FEW FLURRIES AT ALAMOSA EARLIER TODAY...AND SUSPECT A FEW OF THE
HIGHER SAN JUAN PEAKS HAVE SEEN SOME OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...CLEAR SKIES AND LATE FEB SUN HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS...WITH A FEW LOW 40S OVER THE
ARKANSAS VALLEY EAST OF PUEBLO WHERE SNOW COVER IS RATHER SHALLOW.

OVERNIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NM BORDER
AS UPPER LOW SHEARS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM...AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED
POPS IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS NORTHWARD AS NEXT UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE DEVELOPS BY 09Z OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD
RESTART SNOWFALL OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER PEAKS BY SUNRISE
WED...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER LIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WEAK LEE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS...WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
GRADIENT MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM
GETTING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I25...THOUGH MANY SNOW-COVERED AREAS ON THE PLAINS WILL DECOUPLE
LONG ENOUGH TO FALL OFF INTO AT LEAST THE TEENS BEFORE SLOWLY RISING
TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...INITIAL UPPER WAVE RACES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE MORE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AS 90 KNOT UPPER
JET DIVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY...THOUGH WITH INCREASING WINDS/BETTER MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TUE BEFORE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AFTER 18Z AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING ON TO THE PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/TELLER COUNTY WILL LIKELY
SEE SNOW BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE BY 00Z...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAINS SEE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIP AND ONLY MINOR ACCUMS THROUGH SUNSET. ON THE
PLAINS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I25. PALMER DIVIDE WILL LIKELY STAY
ALL SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMS BEGINNING BY THE EVENING COMMUTE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING COLD WEATHER AND SNOWY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING EASTERLY UPSLOPE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE
WIND FLOWS WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE BANKED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PRODUCE A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. AREAS
FURTHER EAST WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHUTTING DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION WESTERLY WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST MODELS HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DOWN DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TAP INTO DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE SAN JUAN RANGE SEEING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOWFALL. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. HOW MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND ENERGY EJECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SNOW COMING TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

KCOS...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS.

KPUB...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE PUEBLO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES LIKELY. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS.

KALS...LOW CIGS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ALAMOSA REGION
TOMORROW EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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