Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150555
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1055 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Arctic airmass with light snow and some freezing drizzle late
tonight into tomorrow...

Currently...

A nice day across the region this afternoon. Temps were in the 40s
to low 50s across the plains and 40s over the valleys. Skies were
sunny across the region. On the larger scale, an arctic front
extended from east central Wyoming and into northern Nebraska, and
was moving south. Temps behind this front were in the single digits.
Light snow was widespread across the Northern Plains.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

the arctic front will cross the region during the early morning
hours Monday. Low clouds will rapidly increase across the plains
from northeast to southwest, and anticipate most, if not all, of the
plains will be in a low overcast at sunrise. widespread light precip
will develop as cold air depth increases over the plains, with areas
of freezing drizzle and light snow overspreading the lower
elevations.

Although accumulations are not expected to be all that much, travel
issues will be possible on top of Monument Hill at morning rush hour
tomorrow, especially on the north side of the hill. As the day
progresses, travel issues may develop, especially areas which
experience areas of freezing drizzle.

Temperatures tomorrow on the plains are going to be cold and there
will be a steady northeast wind through the morning. Wind chill
values will remain in the teens throughout the day. The combination
of the wind and snow will make for a very unpleasant day across the
plains tomorrow.

One concern I have is: It is not out of the question that some areas
may see quite a bit of fluff. The reason why is due to favorable
dendritic growth which is shown in the soundings. There is rather a
deep layer of saturated air in the -10 to -20F layer and it is
somewhat deep. Some areas, especially on the eastern slopes of Pikes
Peak/Ramparts and possibly the Wets may see several inches of fluff.

Over the interior mountains and valleys, most of the cold air will
be blocked so there will not be too much change in the sensible
weather over this region. I do expect later in the day that the cold
air depth will increase and northeast winds will enter the San Luis
valley by later in the afternoon. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Monday night-Tuesday night...Strong northwest flow aloft slowly
moderates through the day Tuesday, as embedded short wave continues
to dig south and east into the Southern High Plains. Associated
modified Arctic boundary remains banked up across the Eastern
Mountains Monday night with east to southeast low level upslope flow
continuing through the night, as a strong 1052mb Canadian surface
high pressure builds south and east into the Central High Plains.
Upslope flow will keep light snow and flurries ongoing over and near
the lower slopes of the Eastern Mountains through the evening and
slowly diminish from north to south into the overnight hours, with
additional light and fluffy accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Clouds and patchy fog to slowly diminish into early Tuesday morning,
leading to cold morning lows mainly in the single digits areawide.
Dry conditions expected areawide on Tuesday, with highs warming to
at and slightly above seasonal levels for the western half of the
forecast area. Over the eastern plains, the shallow cold airmass
persists with generally light south to southeast low level flow and
warming aloft keeping stout inversions in place, with highs mainly
in the 30s expected on Tuesday, though may actually feel warmer with
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures cool rapidly Tuesday evening, with
dry northwest flow and a cool airmass in place, though may see some
warming for areas over and near the higher terrain into early
Wednesday morning.

Wednesday-Thursday...12Z models are now in much better agreement
for this period, with upper level ridging building across the
Rockies as embedded energy digging across the Great Basin
continues well south and west of the area. This will keep the area
dry and warm through the period, with highs warming back to at
and above seasonal norms in the 40s across the lower elevations on
Wednesday and into the 50s on Thursday, with highs mainly in the
30s and 40s across the higher terrain through the period.

Friday-Sunday...Again, latest models in better agreement of a
quick shot mountain snow Friday night and Saturday, with scattered
rain showers changing over the snow across the eastern plains
Saturday and Saturday night, as a a stronger but still progressive
system translates across the area. Warm and breezy conditions
across the plains on Friday will lead to fire weather concerns
through the afternoon, with cooler and unsettled weather expected
on Saturday. Drier but still cool weather expected Sunday behind
the passing system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Arctic front making steady progress toward flight area from the
northeast Colorado plains. It will begin to filter over the
Palmer Divide into southeast Colorado shortly after midnight.
It will be backed up to the eastern slopes of the mountains
by 12z Monday. Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS in low
clouds, light freezing drizzle and light snow will follow the
front across the plains back up into the eastern mountains by
morning and then remain in place throughout the forecast period.
This includes the KCOS and KPUB terminals. Sheltered from the
arctic air by the Sangre De Cristo Range, KALS should remain
VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW


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