Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170721
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
221 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Mid level circulation seen near KSTL with deep convection over
portions of southern IL headed for southwest IN. Pockets of heavy
rain, but no flooding concerns expected with this initial round.

The mid level circulation will continue to drift ESE today, with
a sfc low near KEVV by 00z. Best chances of convection will
continue to accompany the low, with additional development
expected with destabilization today, especially across the E/SE
half of the area. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, best
chance southern sections. Maybe a pulse storm that could produce
strong winds. Nothing major. Temps will be tricky again today
given chaotic cloud cover and convection. Played it close to
Raw Model output. Adjustments likely.

With the departure of the low tonight, PoPs will continue to
decrease from west to east. There may be enough moisture and
destabilization over the east 2/3 of the area Monday for
convection. Have low chance PoPs to cover that. Monday night may
be dry for the most part. Have slights left in, mainly for any
departing convection in the evening east, and possibly added
development toward Tuesday morning from the west. Chance of
convection will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not much to
focus on, but there is residual moisture and instability. Hard to
rule activity out completely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Early Wednesday, an upper level low will be positioned over the
Great Lakes. The atmospheric profile will be moist and unstable
enough to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Through the remainder of the period, an upper level ridge will build
over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. This will help to
stabilize the atmosphere as the tropospheric profile undergoes a
drying trend. Consequently, any slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be suppressed into far eastern portions of the
forecast area Thursday into the weekend. Hot weather fanatics who
may feel cheated by the cooler than average summer will have reason
to rejoice as high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to
mid 90s each day. Unfortunately, this will yield peak afternoon heat
index readings near the century mark.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 801 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Showers/storms moving toward us from MO will enter terminal
forecast pic by/shortly after midnight, mainly KCGI/KPAH. Will carry
vicinity mention of showers for cover, with cigs lowering thru
VFR. May see some MVFR cigs by tmrw morning, as upper wave moves
in, and shower/storm chances bubble up again during heat of day
for all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








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