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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

HOT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100F. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY OK FOR NOW AND WILL RUN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.

WVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING INTO SW MINNESOTA AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OFF TO OUR
NORTH FROM PORTIONS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND OHIO. THE
QUESTION FOR OUR AREA...IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITH THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION/MESOSCALE MODELS ARE VARIABLE. A COUPLE OF
4KM MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WHILE VARIANTS OF THE HRRR STANDARD AND ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE
DATA SUGGEST A LIMITED CHANCE INTO THE KEVV TRI-STATE IF ANYTHING
AT ALL...AND NOTHING WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS/WEAKENING CAP...THINK IT PRUDENT WE
MAINTAIN POPS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR NOW
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS KEVV TRI-STATE...LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED EITHER WAY
HOW THINGS PAN OUT. AND SHOULD CONVECTION TAKE SHAPE IN OUR
AREA...IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...WE WILL RID THE SHORT LIVED HEAT EPISODE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD A VERY SHARP...BUT NARROW AMPLITUDE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MEAN MOISTURE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS IS ORIENTED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND
DIVING SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW...BUT ROBUST
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A SERIES OF MINOR
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MUCH FASTER
WESTERLIES MAY GENERATE NON-DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. THE BIG KEY WILL
BE THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...KEEPING MOST OF THE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR POPS.

BY THE TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROLLS AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS...SUPPORTING A MUCH MORE ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW AND
FORCING OVER THE AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS ALSO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND TARGETED TOWARD THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY BY
EARLY MONDAY...FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
MORE DOMINANT RIDGING TAKES PLACE LATE MONDAY...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UNTIL RIDGING
ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE BY MID-WEEK...ANTECEDENT SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/STATIONARY FRONTS SHOULD SUPPORT A SMALL DIURNAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS STRESSFUL AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

WINDS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 10
KTS. THE WIND IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION...AND A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THU...YIELDING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. ATTM...NO PCPN OR VSBY
RESTRICTION IS IN THE KEVV/KOWB TAFS DUE TO THE LIMITED CHANCE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN THIRD OF THE
REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$