Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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037
FXUS63 KPAH 020449
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A cold front has just passed through all sites. Winds will
generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts through the
period. A series of upper-level disturbances will attempt to bring
some light showers to the area Monday and Monday evening, but
nothing that would impact aviation. The main concern will be a
large mass of MVFR ceilings that should reach KEVV, but the
southward extend of these ceilings is in question. Left it out at
the other locations. Elsewhere, a lower VFR ceiling is expected to
develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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