Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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241
FXUS63 KPAH 151642
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

BUCKLED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN THE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS
TO DAILY RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PW`S ARE STILL
MODELED/FORECAST SO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY STORM
ASSOCIATED HAZARD.

HEIGHT FALLS IN THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FA
TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. INCREASING CHANCES WILL SPIKE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY IN THE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY THRU THE WEEKEND.

80S/60S WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND LINGERS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA DUE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
OUR REGION DRY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY, ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME QPF CREEPING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA DUE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.  THIS FEATURE STAYS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ONLY GENERATES MAINLY LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WILL SEE LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES.  BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD (18Z SAT) WITH ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN.
UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY AS CONVECTION EVOLVES. WE DO EXPECT SSW
WINDS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...THE CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCREASES
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THE RULE. WILL USE PROB30`S AFT 06Z THROUGH
18Z SAT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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