Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180457
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Radar pretty quiet. Only spotty light rain/showers since mid
morning. Little activity currently. Will maintain a very low
chance PoP into the early evening over the east 2/3 of the area.
RAP shows limited elevated instability, thus will keep slight
chance TSRA. But overall, not much expected.

Next system will be a s/wv moving from the central Plains to the
TN Valley Sunday/Sunday evening. Most of the moisture stays to our
south, so dry forecast for now. Dry weather will continue Sunday
night through Monday night as well. In the wake of the s/wv, weak
high pressure will be in control.

Temps will be a blend a MOS blend. We will monitor the fog potential
overnight. It is in the forecast. Lows should cross over most areas.
Could be low clouds as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Upper level ridge is in place from Wednesday into Friday. On Friday
heights fall slightly on all models as upper level low forms over
the northern Rockies. By 18z Saturday, the upper level low moves
into the northern plains with the GFS having a more negative tilt
than other models and ensembles and thus much faster with the cold
front.

More interesting to us is the moisture pattern forecast. Moisture
off the southeast coast early Tuesday is forecast to move under the
ridge toward the west and northwest. Although models vary on the
details including timing, it looks like the best chance for
precipitation will be on Saturday.

With the ridge over the area, expect temperatures to be well above
normal at least until Friday. Normal highs are in the lower 80s,
expect to see upper 80s to lower 90s during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Fog has begun to form across much of the region late this evening,
mainly in the kevv/kowb areas. Given the already dense nature of the
fog at some sites in southern IL and western KY, it appears lifr
conditions will occur at kevv/kowb through the early morning hours.
Fog is expected to form at kpah/kcgi during the overnight hours, and
lifr conditions are likely at times. Improvement is expected once
the sun burns off the fog Sunday, however it may be a little slower
than earlier forecast. The fog should lift into a cloud deck around
mid-morning, likely mvfr through midday. It may be mid afternoon
before vfr conditions are prevalent.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MY



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