Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Update for 12z aviation only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

High confidence in rain with low confidence in timing and medium
confidence in placement.

Models continue to show different solution with the placement and
timing of the rain. However one common theme is that they do
continue to show the highest chances and heaviest rain along west
of the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys. This is more pronounced west
of the Mississippi River as come to fruition Thursday with Cape
Girardeau measuring over three and half inches. In contrast west
of there Poplar Bluff was more like a tenth of an inch and Paducah
was nearly three quarters of an inch. So the heavy rain threat
continues but not to the extent of Thursday. There was also some
hail Thursday which is not as likely today but possible. The
models are starting to show more dry periods than previously
unfortunately not so much for today. As we near the end of the
short term drier condition are expected to become more common.
The southwest flow aloft will persist through the short term with
the gulf wide open in the lower layers. So any perturbation in the
flow will set off thunderstorms. Although severe is not expected
strong storms with heavy rain will continue to be the main threat.
Southerly winds at the surface will be gusty again today with or
without storms. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb a
degree or two each day through the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

below average confidence in the long term due to model

High pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft should keep most
of the region dry Monday and Monday night, however scattered mainly
diurnal convection will be possible, especially over the western

Precipitation probabilities begin to increase area wide on Tuesday
as a closed upper low digging southeast into the upper plains carves
out a huge trough causing the flow aloft to increase and back around
to the southwest over the area. Meanwhile the aforementioned surface
high pressure will have moved off to the east bringing the low level
flow around to the south causing increasing levels of moisture. The
trough is forecast to push a front across the region on Thursday so
precipitation chances should be greatest area wide on that day.

High temperatures in the long term period will generally top out in
the low to mid 80s with overnight lows bottoming out in the low to
mid 60s.


Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR for most TAF sites with the exception of KCGI. Thunder in
progress there currently but should move out or just to the west
by 14 to 16z. Then another round should move in this afternoon and
would likely bring at least MVFR cigs and vsby to KCGI...possibly
lower briefly. KPAH has much less of a chance but another round
this afternoon is likely. Also upped winds to at least gusty late
morning on until near 00z Sat. May have to introduce more storms
overnight for KCGI but will wait for another model run to delve into
it much more.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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