Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171139
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A strong clipper storm system will move southeast across the
western Great Lakes today and tonight. This will push a cold front
through our region mainly this evening. Low-level moisture will
be on the increase across our region today and will make for a
rather wet day. Virtually all 00Z and later guidance indicate that
showers will develop rapidly through daybreak over much of the
region. After 12Z, model soundings show a deepening moist layer
potentially deep enough to achieve some elevated instability.
Model Showalter Indices are negative throughout the area for much
of the day, so have included a slight chance of thunderstorms to
go along with scattered to numerous showers beginning at 12Z.

The latest HRRR and WRF output really begin to dry us out from
the northwest this afternoon, with any activity beyond 00Z along
the AR/TN border regions. The more robust convective development
noted the last 2 days occurs to our south in the most recent CAMs,
so we may not seem much coverage of thunderstorms at all with
this event. The larger-scale models continue to hit west Kentucky
and southern portions of southeast Missouri fairly hard 00Z-03Z.
Tried to push the forecast toward the drier/faster CAM output, but
will still have likely PoPs over southern portions of the area
into the evening hours. The entire area should be dry before 06Z.
Storm-total QPF will range from around a tenth of an inch in the
northwest to around a half inch possibly in the southeast.

A nice weekend is in store for the four state region. Surface high
pressure will build over the area Saturday, and shift east of the
region on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge builds over the region.
South winds will develop on Sunday, and low-level warm advection
may bring a few showers northeast through Missouri skirting along
the northwest periphery of the forecast area Sunday through
Sunday night. The best chance of showers will be late Sunday
night.

Guidance has trended considerably cooler than the previous
forecast for highs today, which makes sense given the overcast
skies and precipitation expected. Generally accepted the consensus
of guidance through the short term portion of the forecast.
Temperatures should be near normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Medium to low confidence in the extended longevity of pops with
limited moisture.

There will however be a warm front move through Monday bringing some
moisture to the region. It will also have a cold front follow
through in its wake Monday night. Forecast soundings show the system
to be moisture starved except at the boundary layer. Also LI`s do go
negative although not at the surface with CAPE near 500 j/kg2. That
may not be enough for severe but certainly allows for a chance of
thunder both with the WAA during the day with more surface based
instability with the cold front passage Monday night. The front
stalls south of the region for mid week keeping at least a chance of
rain in the forecast and thats where confidence falls off
considerably. Especially with ridging aloft and high pressure at the
surface. However as we approach the weekend Friday into Friday night
a rather vigorous system begins to take shape as yet another system
approaches with much more available moisture. This will be the
system to watch at this juncture at least. Temperatures will hover
above normal prior to the two cold frontal passages and slightly
below after their passage but much warmer than recent values.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

MVFR ceilings are gradually spreading northeast across the
region early this morning, as scattered mainly light showers begin
to develop. Guidance has been and appears to currently be too
pessimistic with ceilings, so tried to delay the lowering of
ceilings through the day. Figure most places will get down to IFR
levels just ahead of the front, but it may take awhile for them to
develop.

Showers are likely to get most of the region wet this morning
into the afternoon, but not sure about the coverage of more
intense precipitation. Went on the optimistic side and kept
visibilities VFR throughout the forecast. Of course MVFR or even
IFR visibilities will be possible in any stronger showers or
storms. Confidence in TS is too low to mention at this time. South
winds will veer to southwest through the day and become gusty
this afternoon. Winds will continue to veer this evening ahead of
the front and will end up light from the west northwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS



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