Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210444 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Still have a few bonafide showers that will ride northeast through
Todd county in the southeast corner of the area in the next hour.
Otherwise, precipitation for the remainder of the afternoon will
be in the form of patchy light rain and drizzle. Gusts up to
20kts are finally developing over southeast Missouri and the
strongest gusts /20-25kts/ will overspread the entire area through
00Z. The strongest gusts will persist through 03Z, and then slowly
subside through the night.

Based on recent hi-resolution model data have maintained slight
chances of showers over the EVV Tri State and Pennyrile in
association with the primary upper low center moving through the
area 00Z-06Z. Not sure how much impact this will have, but figure
it was worth keeping some mention of precipitation through the

We should be clear throughout the area by 18Z Friday, as the
surface high begins to settle over the region. It should settle
just south of the region by Friday night, which should allow the
winds over our area to go calm. With dewpoints in the mid to upper
30s throughout the area and good radiational cooling expected.
Figure most locations will drop into the upper 30s for lows.
Decided to add patchy frost over most of the region overnight
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

With the dry air in place, tried to go with a larger diurnal range
than consensus would suggest from Friday through Saturday. It will
definitely be cooler than normal through this period. Southwest
winds will stay up Saturday night, so we should be close to normal
for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A minor shortwave, rotating northeast around a closed low off the
WA/OR coast, is forecast to ridge up the western limb of the
dominate central U.S. 500 mb ridge Monday night. Some lee side
trough development is forecast to take place as this shortwave rides
over and slightly dampens the trough axis Tuesday and Wednesday as
it moves into the Midwest. This trough gains a little energy from
troughiness in Southwest Canada, ahead of the rather persistent
upper low off the WA/OR coast.

Although moist of the moisture contribution will be associated with
this system, there will be a small contribution of moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico starting late Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. This should be enough to support a small chance for
showers and some isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorm

For the most part, the regionally blended model initialization was
acceptable, approximately close to the 00z/12z Thursday ECMWF/NAM
and GFS Ensemble.  Only minor changes made to maintain
collaboration thresholds.


Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

With the approach and passage of an upper level trough, MVFR cigs
are possible for the first 2-3 hours at KPAH/KCGI, then VFR.
KEVV/KOWB may have SHRA along with MVFR vsbys in the first 2-3
hours, however MVFR cigs are expected through most of the period.
Winds will continue out of the northwest to north generally AOB 10
knots through the first half of the period, possibly gusting up to
15 knots after 15Z, then diminish to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.




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