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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020959
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

Near term conditions should remain rather uneventful through
Tuesday as the upper flow pattern transitions from west northwest
to west southwest. This will result in a gradual increase in low
level moisture and a slow rise in temperatures over the next few
days.

While conditions are largely expected to remain dry through
Tuesday evening, it is not entirely implausible that weak
isentropic upglide in the lower moisture bearing layer could
result in the formation of patchy light drizzle at times. However,
prefer a dry forecast at this time, as the primary impact from the
developing warm advection pattern should be the presence of ample
low level clouds. Areas of advection fog may also develop tonight
and last into early Tuesday morning. A few peeks of sunshine are
certainly possible, but clouds should be the prevalent feature
through Tuesday.

A cold front will approach Tuesday night as low pressure moves
northeast from the Plains into the upper Midwest. Developing large
scale lift in response to the frontal approach will result in a
chance for showers Tuesday night, especially after midnight.

Given little change to the lower tropospheric thermal profile,
little change in temperature is expected today over Sunday. The
passage of a warm front should result in a rise in temperatures by
about 5 degrees on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

Wed-Wed night. Threw out the GFS frontal movement, and blended the
UKMET/GEM/NAM/ECMWF. That results in the arctic front moving into
the area toward the end of the day Wed, progressing east across
much of the CWFA through the evening hours. Not much moisture to
work with initially on Wednesday. Kept PoPs slight chance, but did
include TSRA. A weak mid level impulse and increase in moisture
ahead of the front Wed night means best chance PoPs over the
SE 1/2 with thunder possible. Wed will be rather mild with highs
well into the 60s, and dew points mid 50s to near 60 as well.

Thur-Fri night. Pattern recognition reveals a good chance of impact
wintry precipitation for the area, based on the nature of the longwave
trof forecast, and arctic intrusion beneath the strong SW mid
tropospheric flow regime. First surge of moisture spreads SW to NE
by midday and into the afternoon Thur over top of colder air that
will continue to build in with the arctic high. Temps most of the
day should be above freezing, with the exception by late afternoon
from the Ozark foothills NE into SRN IL. So mainly liquid through
the day, though some sleet cannot be ruled out. Late afternoon in
the aforementioned areas of SEMO, SRN IL will begin the transition
to mixed wintry precipitation. Best chance of impact wintry precip
Thur night should be across the NW 2/3 of the CWFA as the 32F line
progresses southeast. However, even late in the night into
west Kentucky a change to wintry precipitation is likely. The
precipitation will likely transition from freezing rain and sleet,
to sleet and snow as the depth of the cold air slowly increases over
the NW 1/2 of the area. Late in the night over the SE 1/2 of the
CWFA, rain/sleet should turn to freezing rain/sleet, depending on
where the 32F line ends up.

The wintry mixed precip chance will continue Fri as another
surge of moisture with yet another mid level impulse moves over
the region. Best chance of precip will be over the SE 1/2 of the
area Fri. Greater depth of cold air should mean more of a
sleet/snow chance, with the rain/freezing rain/sleet possibility
mainly over west Kentucky. The moisture should push quickly off to
the east Fri evening. Taking a look at 24 hr QPF in the critical
time frame of 00z Fri-00z Sat, the 0.50" line per the ECMWF/GFS is
roughly from near Owensboro, KY to New Madrid, MO or Hickman, KY.
Amounts rise to near 1" toward KHOP, and taper off to the NW to
0.10"-0.33" across SEMO into SRN IL. Given the respectable QPF in
this critical time frame, winter weather impacts appear probable.
It is too soon to speculate on amounts though for any given location
given the gradual deepening of the cold air and transitional nature
of the precipitation.

Saturday should be a quiet weather day, then, if the long range
models are correct, another surge of moisture moving from SW to NE
could bring another round of wintry precipitation to the area on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

In the vicinity of a decaying frontal boundary, ample low level
moisture will result in plenty of mainly VFR clouds over the next
24 hours. Any patchy MVFR fog early this morning will burn off
within a few hours post sunrise. A warm front will develop across
the region tonight. This may result in the development of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities tonight, mainly after midnight. Winds
will be light from the south to southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP