Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 222217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SEASONAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST, MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER. WE
MAY SEE A LITTLE PRECIP IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE A PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES TO LIKELY CHANCES WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WELL...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A RAIN SOAKED MEMORIAL DAY
SHAPING UP FOR OUR AREA. MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NE
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN DEEP...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH THERE SEEMS
TO BE LITTLE SFC FOCUS...THE DEEP CONVEYER BELT OF
MOISTURE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE MID LEVEL TRIGGER
SHOULD SUFFICE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
EXPECTED PW VALUES...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A SECOND H50 SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT NE ON TUESDAY AND COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THOUGH.

ONCE WE GET THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OUT OF HERE TUE NIGHT...IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THINGS MAY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE WLY AND H50 HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT...COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF
THE SEASON AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HEAT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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