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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

DECIDED TO ADD STODDARD...SCOTT AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY...AS SOME APPRECIABLE ICING IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXISTING ADVISORY AREA ARE STILL 32 OR
LESS...SO WILL NOT BE CANCELING ANY OF IT AT THIS TIME.

WE HAVE GOTTEN REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY...AND STRONGLY CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING
FOR JEFFERSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AND JUST A SMITTEN OF ICE EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING...DECIDED WITH WFO ILX TO JUST STAY WITH AN ADVISORY.

USED THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AND THAT RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF KMVN NOT CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH 3-4" OF FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. THANKFULLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z WHEN IT SHOULD BE DONE UP
THERE.

TRIED TO PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
THIS EVENING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OUTPACE THE FREEZING LINE...ESPECIALLY WITH
ONLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE WE MAY CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE
MONDAY...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE COMING BACK NORTHEAST QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING...AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. TRIED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY OVER THE NEW SNOWPACK ALONG I-64...WHERE
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY STILL BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK AT THAT TIME...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AFTER EVENING LOWS.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS QUITE MEAGER IN THE GFS TUESDAY...BUT DID
SEE SOME VERY MEAGER MUCAPE...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO GO ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY BY AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
SOME LOWER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER A WET TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY OVER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH IDEAL
JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY IN KENTUCKY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO MUCH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

OUR NEXT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO LEND MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
SNOW TO EXPECT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS SHOVES MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE. THAT SAID...THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A NOTICEABLE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF FORECAST OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS A TREND THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH IS UNCLEAR AT
THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL ON WEDNESDAY
STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IN ITS WAKE. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
HE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS.

FORTUNATELY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GIVEN THE SHARP DEMARCATION LINE FOR EXTENSIVE SNOW/ICE COVER...IT
WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING TO ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF LOCATIONS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
ATTEMPTED TO ADDRESS SOME VARIATION FROM VFR TO MVFR CATEGORY AS
THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE SNOW/ICE FIELD TOWARD THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS SITUATION IS A LITTLE LESS CLEAR OVER THE KOWB TAF SITE...SO
MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE NEXT SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCE TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
RAINFALL.

BETWEEN 10Z-18Z MONDAY...ALL OF THE TAF SITES RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>086.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107-108.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ081-082.

KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...SMITH