Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240907
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
407 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Potent mid-level shortwave continues to move across the central
Rockies this morning. VAD profilers indicate that low-level winds
responding with 40-50 knot southerly low level jet in place. Gusty
south winds will result today with a few gusts gusts close to
advisory levels this afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may
develop as far south as northwest OK this afternoon and move
toward northeast OK this evening with limited threat of hail and
winds near the Kansas border.

Increasingly moist but capped airmass will reside over the area
Monday. Isolated storm development possible along the dry line
into central and eastern OK, but given the lack of synoptic forcing
present at that time the overall chances are slim. Still, should
any storms develop the instability and shear would be supportive
of severe weather.

The main event in this forecast period still looks to be Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a strong, negatively-tilted upper low
tracks across the Rockies. Scattered elevated storms may develop
late Monday night or Tuesday morning in vicinity of warm front
lifting north, but at this point does not appear any morning
convection will have a mitigating affect on available instability
during the afternoon. While cap will remain in place along/ahead
of dry line, upper level forcing will likely be able to overcome
this and expect storms to develop along the dry line west of I-35 and
quickly become severe Tuesday afternoon. All modes of severe will
be possible, some significant through Tuesday evening and while it
remains to be seen if this erupts into a full-blown tornado
outbreak, residents of eastern OK should continue to monitor
forecasts very closely. Storms will continue into northwest AR
Tuesday night with some decrease in intensity expected.

Cold front will slowly move through Wednesday with severe weather
potential continuing across far eastern OK and western AR during
the afternoon. Thursday should provide a brief respite in the
unsettled weather as the front pushes southeast of the area, but
another upper low will follow quickly with boundary lifting north
by Friday and Saturday resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  64  81  68 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   82  61  81  67 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   80  64  80  68 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   81  61  80  65 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   79  60  78  64 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   79  60  80  64 /  10  10  20  30
MKO   81  63  80  67 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   80  62  78  65 /  10  20  20  30
F10   80  63  81  68 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   81  63  80  68 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14



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