Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 210234
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
934 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

Just a few minor changes to the current forecast. Updated near-
term sky coverage to account for mid- and upper-level clouds streaming
in from the north due to tropical moisture from Tropical
Depression Payne over the Baja peninsula. Otherwise, current
forecast appears to be on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
relatively light southerly winds during the day Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon with
widespread heat index readings of 100 to 109 degrees noted.
Noteworthy is 12z RAOB data placed the strength of the mid level
ridge and associated low level thermal fields near recorded
extremes for many upper air sites through the central U.S.

An axis of drier precipitable water noted in satellite imagery
stretching from the Upper Midwest into the central Gulf Coast
region will be ushered westward over the next several days. So
while temperatures will continue well above normal, dewpoints
should see a noticeable drying trend which will keep heat index
values from recent extreme levels.

The evolution of the upper trough poised to develop over the
western U.S. remains uncertain though the 12z cycle of data have
become more aligned. Should this scenario become the consensus
then the trough is show to evolve into a large upper low which
becomes largely cut off from the prevailing westerlies. As this
feature slowly moves eastward precip chances will increase over
the weekend into early next week, however no meaningful airmass
change is seen. Thus once the precip and clouds leave the region a
return to hot and humid weather is likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  93  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  93  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12



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