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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221156
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
656 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

A complicated TAF period as a cold front is progged to slowly move
through the region today and overnight. Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms across SE KS and SW MO will gradually work their way
south through the morning with isolated to scattered storms
starting to develop out ahead of the line. Cigs and vsby will drop
to IFR/MVFR as the storms move through. This early convection is
expected to weaken through the morning hours, however, convection
will reinvigorate along the front later this afternoon. The main
concern with this later activity will be timing and extent of
coverage especially at KMLC/KFSM this afternoon and evening...and
how long the front will take to push south later tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Focus today and tonight will be the passing cold front which
currently extends from southwest KS northeastward into an extensive
convective complex over NE KS / W MO. Early day thunderstorm
chances will be associated with the western flank of the
aforementioned convective complex as it gradually spreads
southeastward. The composite front / outflow may also push through
NE OK and into far NW AR by early afternoon while the western
portion of the frontal boundary is slower to progress. Convection
is likely to develop further along the frontal zone by mid to late
afternoon and continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday
as the front makes slowly pushes southward. Sufficient instability
amidst weak shear profiles will support the potential for
downburst winds with the strongest storms while locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. The overall coverage of storms
along the frontal zone across the forecast area is somewhat
uncertain thus precip chances were kept rather modest today and
tonight.

Noticeably drier and cooler airmass will overspread the region for
late week with both high and low temps running some 5 - 10 degrees
below normal for late August. A trend in the latest data also show
the western Gulf of Mexico becoming active later this week with
potential for a tropical cyclone to make landfall across the western
coastline over the weekend. Data also keep the track of this
potential system south and east of the area into early next week.
This scenario along with an amplified ridge over the western
states would keep the drier airmass in place into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  65  84  62 /  50  30   0   0
FSM   92  71  86  64 /  60  60  20   0
MLC   92  71  85  67 /  40  60  30  10
BVO   89  62  82  59 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   85  64  80  60 /  60  40  10   0
BYV   85  63  80  58 /  70  30   0   0
MKO   90  68  83  63 /  60  40  10   0
MIO   85  61  81  58 /  50  10   0   0
F10   90  68  83  65 /  60  60  20   0
HHW   93  73  87  69 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11