721
FXUS64 KTSA 020529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
     possible the rest of this week with locally heavy rains,
     downburst winds, and lightning being the primary hazards.

   - Hot and humid conditions will return by the end of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

High pressure ridge over the Southern Plains today, though low
level moisture will begin to increase in parts of the area this
afternoon, mainly closer to I-35. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm
is certainly possible into parts of eastern OK during the
afternoon and evening, though coverage expected to remain very
limited. Some degree of moisture advection will continue tonight,
potentially leading to some elevated convection spreading into
eastern OK late tonight. Temps will remain a bit below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Low level moisture should continue to deepen some Thursday as
ridge remains in place. Most of the CAM solutions develop at least
isolated storms into eastern OK through the afternoon, with a bit
more coverage compared to today it appears. By Friday a weak
upper trough will pass to our north and weakens the ridge
sufficiently for scattered convection, especially over the
northern half of the local forecast area. This pattern should
linger into the weekend and keep isolated to scattered
thunderstorms with temps a little below average. Severe weather
chances still appear low at this time, but the threat of lightning
will remain present through the holiday weekend, and perhaps a few
localized strong wind gusts.

For the most part the upper ridge is forecast to remain centered
to our west early next week, maintaining low chances of storms
through Tuesday with temperatures trending closer to normal. At
this point no excessive heat is anticipated through the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  89  73 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   91  72  91  72 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   89  71  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   90  68  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   88  66  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   88  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   88  70  86  71 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   88  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
F10   87  70  86  71 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   90  73  89  73 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05