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000
FXUS64 KTSA 051714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K
FEET. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP THEM IN CHECK HOWEVER... AND CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME CONCERNS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 21Z BEING THE EARLIEST THAT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... EVERYTHING ELSE
IN THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS STRETCH ALONG THE ARK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND ARE
OOZING TOWARD THE TULSA METRO SO I HAVE INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE ARK RIVER
SITES. BOTH IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND THAT. INCREASING MID CLOUD BY
AROUND 00Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME RASN POTENTIAL
ACROSS ERN OK.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06