Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 071122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
AND CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 00-06Z. SNOW WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING FURTHER AND LOCALLY BECOMING IFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
INITIALLY...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...UNDER AN INCH.

OVERALL WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
A COUPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP THE PROCESS SLOW
UNTIL LATE WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DUE IN ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL COME THROUGH DRY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES BUT WILL NOT MENTION FLURRIES AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE LIMITED AT THAT TIME SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES BY THAT TIME WILL SUPPORT ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

STAYED NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
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