Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 172111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DEPARTING
WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP MIXED
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE WRN ZONES.
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  60  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  70  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  70  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  80  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  80  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  80  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  60  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23




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