Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection is expected to continue to develop and spread
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening and
overnight as a cold front enters the CWA tonight. Will continue
tempo groups for all TAF sites for timing of greater potential.
Behind the frontal passage...scattered rain showers and
northwesterly winds will remain possible into the afternoon hours
over the CWA Wednesday before the boundary exits off to the east
southeast. VFR conditions should continue into the overnight hours
and look to fall into MVFR conditions late tonight and continue
much of the day Wednesday behind the front.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently poised to our west across northwest Oklahoma
will provide the spark for strong to severe thunderstorms across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tonight. Not expecting to
see any storms develop in northeast Oklahoma until around 00z as
a mid-level shortwave begins to influence the area. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the main concerns with the severe storms.
However, there will be a window early in the event with the potential
for tornadoes as the cells remain more discrete. As we approach the
midnight hour, the thunderstorms will begin to line out along the front.
The threat for severe weather will diminish as we move through the
overnight hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday along the cold front
across western Arkansas and as the main mid-level shortwave moves across
the area. It is possible that some of these storms could be strong to severe
as well. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the
cold front. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to end Wednesday evening
as a the main mid-level low exits the region to the east.

The chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms will return to northern portions
of the area Thursday night with isentropic lift taking place north of a surface
boundary that extends across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The weather
on Friday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary becoming positioned near
the red river. Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread Friday night into Saturday
as the frontal boundary lingers across the area and isentropic lift intensifies.
The showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Sunday as a mid-level low
sweeps through the area. Severe weather will be possible both Friday night and again
on Saturday with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. Heavy rain and flooding
will also be an issue with 2 to 4 inches of rain possible during late in the week and
into the weekend.

Drier conditions are expected early next week as high pressure prevails.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  57  40  66 /  60  60  20  10
FSM   65  68  43  71 /  60  80  30  10
MLC   61  61  41  71 /  60  70  10  10
BVO   51  57  39  66 /  60  50  20  10
FYV   61  62  40  66 /  60  80  40  10
BYV   62  65  41  65 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   58  59  41  68 /  60  70  20  10
MIO   54  56  39  65 /  60  70  40  10
F10   55  58  41  69 /  60  60  10  10
HHW   66  70  43  72 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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