Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 192254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR TAF elements will prevail through the entire period at all
sites. Sfc wind gusts after 15z will increase from the south
between 20-25 kts and continue through late afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

No significant changes were made concerning the severe weather
potential setting up for Saturday evening/overnight across eastern
OK and western AR.

Low-level moisture is well underway (24hr dewpoint change around
5-10F)...and expect dewpoints to rise into the lower/mid 60s going
into Friday night. There may be a few patchy showers around later
tomorrow afternoon...with a slightly better chance of scattered
elevated convection tomorrow night as a lead shortwave ejects
across the region.

The primary longwave trof will eject out of the Lee of the Rockies
Saturday afternoon...with a cold front stretching from eastern KS
into northwestern OK. Atmosphere ahead of the front will remain
mostly capped through much of the day...with initial development
expected along the front holding off until late afternoon. A few
discrete supercells may be possible the initial storms...but
strong frontal forcing will eventually result in more linear
storms that sweep through eastern OK Saturday evening and into
western AR toward midnight. While damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threat...there remains a limited tornado
risk within the line segments. High precipitable water values will
be favorable for heavy rainfall as well...with 1-2 inches of rain
likely along with locally heavier amounts. Precipitation will be
ending early Sunday as the front and main trof axis exit east of
the area.

The upper trof will develop into a closed low east of area early
next week...then get kicked east as strong shortwave energy dives
southeast out of Canada. The deepening northwesterly upper flow
will drive another cold front through the region by Monday
night...with cooler/drier weather expected for Tuesday and into
much of next week.




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