Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261119
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings this morning will become VFR by mid to late morning,
with increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms after 18z.
Coverage and timing of thunderstorms remains very uncertain
through the forecast period. IN general for the afternoon and
evening, VFR conditions will prevail except for local MVFR/IFR in
significant storms. More widespread coverage of storms possible
late in the period across southeast OK and west central AR with
prevailing MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Overnight convection has thus far remained well removed from the
forecast area...with an outflow boundary from the ongoing NE KS
storms and an expanding convective regime across Far West TX being
the focus today. The aforementioned outflow boundary may sag into
NE OK and far NW AR...and should it maintain definition...would be
a potential focus for renewed convection. Further south convection
appears to be driven within an advancing subtropical speed max and
subtle mid level wave. This zone of lift will quick spread
northeastward and possibly spread convection into the area later
this morning. The more robust storms are again likely to focus to
our west and north through this evening.

Tonight into Friday will remain active with convection likely to
expand and intensify overnight south of the forecast area and
spread northeastward through Friday. While there is potential for
stronger destabilization Friday afternoon nearer the sfc
dryline...data have remained largely consistent in focusing the
more widespread and stronger storms further south and spreading
northeastward through Friday night as the primary wave passes. An
axis of heavy rain is likely across far eastern OK and western AR.

An unstable and weakly capped airmass will remain over the region
through the weekend into next week. Flow aloft is forecast to
weaken compared to recent days with any synoptic scale forcing
remaining weak. The result will be continued precip chances with
temps near to slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  80  67 /  30  50  50  40
FSM   84  69  78  67 /  30  70  80  60
MLC   82  69  77  67 /  30  70  60  40
BVO   84  67  78  64 /  40  50  50  50
FYV   80  67  75  63 /  30  60  80  60
BYV   83  66  75  63 /  30  60  80  60
MKO   82  66  76  66 /  30  60  60  30
MIO   86  67  77  65 /  30  60  60  40
F10   81  68  77  66 /  30  60  50  30
HHW   83  69  77  68 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14


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