Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 262347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS WHICH SWEPT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ONGOING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EVIDENCED BY LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ON VIS SATELLITE. STORMS THAT
HRRR HAD DEVELOPING EARLIER NEAR KS BORDER ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WICHITA. DRYLINE
STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THEY ARE IN NO
HURRY TO GET OVER HERE AND COULD POSSIBLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE GETTING OVER HERE. THIS HAS THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
EARLY ELEVATED STORMS...AND THUS NOW APPEARS TO BE OFF ON LOCATION
OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME...BACKING OFF INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OKLAHOMA SITES
THROUGH MOST... IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AT ANY SITE THAT TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA.
THESE WILL POSE A LIMITED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BUT AT
LEAST HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF INCREASING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SOME OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN HINT AT
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WOULD NOT BE A GOOD SITUATION GIVEN ONGOING SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...BUT AT
LEAST ANY SERIOUS ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...NOT TO
MENTION THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH CAPPING APPEARS WEAK WED
AFTERNOON SO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE
PATTERN OF A DISTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THIS MONTH IN
AN APPROPRIATELY WET FASHION. GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TO SOME DEGREE RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  82  66  81 /  50  50  30  50
FSM   66  83  67  84 /  50  70  20  50
MLC   66  82  67  83 /  50  60  30  50
BVO   62  82  66  82 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   62  80  64  82 /  50  60  20  50
BYV   63  80  65  81 /  50  60  20  40
MKO   64  81  66  82 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   62  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  40
F10   65  81  66  82 /  50  60  30  50
HHW   67  82  68  83 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




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