Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  65 /  40  10  10   0
FSM   73  63  82  65 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   73  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   79  59  85  63 /  30   0  10   0
FYV   73  58  80  60 /  50  10  20  10
BYV   74  59  81  61 /  50  10  20  10
MKO   75  62  83  64 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   78  61  84  63 /  30  10  10   0
F10   75  62  82  65 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   71  64  78  65 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





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