Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
443
FXUS64 KTSA 212042
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main points of emphasis for today`s forecast are: 1) Tropical
Storm Cindy, its track and what if any impact on our area this
week, and 2) A pair of cold fronts to bring storms Friday thru
Sunday and below average temps to start next week.

There`s not much change to the forecast reasoning that was laid
out yesterday. TC Cindy is expected to make landfall on the SE TX
coast tonight or early Thursday. The system will track north and
then sharply recurve over the ArkLaTex, heading toward the low-mid
Mississippi Valley by the end of the week. Since our area will
remain on the drier/weaker western semicircle of the cyclone, the
only noticeable impacts will be the increasing high level
cloudiness and small potential for showers and isolated storms on
its outer bands during the day Thursday.

An upper trough will dive down out of Canada and head towards the
Great Lakes over the next couple of days. This system is what will
be picking up Cindy, and will also send a cold front down into the
area on Friday. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF are all faster with this front
in their forecast today, suggesting the best potential for
afternoon storms will be over SE OK/W CNTRL AR. A second wave
will take a similar path to the first, over the weekend and into
early next week. A second reinforcing front will push thru the
area either late Saturday night or Sunday. The GFS remains
consistently dry during this time frame, while the ECMWF suggests
some activity possible both along the front, and MCS activity to
our west over the high Plains. Will keep PoPs on the low end of
chance given the uncertainty in the details. Behind these two
fronts, cooler and tranquil weather will prevail to start the next
work week.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how the pattern
will evolve toward the end of the next week. The GFS today looks
like the ECMWF yesterday, shifting the western CONUS ridge east
into the Plains, and the ECMWF today is now hesitant to do so. The
ECMWF is now keeping us in a cooler and potentially wetter WNW
flow. Stayed close to the consensus during this time frame, which
is a gradual warming trend thru the week with low, if any, rain
chances.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  73  86 /   0  10   0  30
FSM   72  88  74  89 /  10  30  20  50
MLC   69  87  70  88 /  10  10  10  40
BVO   65  90  68  83 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   65  85  66  84 /  10  20  10  30
BYV   68  84  68  84 /   0  20  20  40
MKO   67  87  71  87 /   0  10  10  40
MIO   67  88  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
F10   68  87  71  86 /   0  10   0  40
HHW   70  87  73  91 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.