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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKING REASONABLY WELL THIS EVENING...DID BUMP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SE
OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4K FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...WITH BETTER CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44...AS WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BROAD UPPER LOW...MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05