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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271126
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK MAINLY AFTER
18Z...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING FOR KMLC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH
TIME...AND WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LIQUID
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL OFFER LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SE
OK...WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM
NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ONGOING..ESPECIALLY BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE TO THE CA COAST. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WILL MAINLY BE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN AS WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ENSUE. EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE
FEATURES RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OK SHOULD ANY
LINGERING PRECIP INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  21  32  30 /  20  10  60  40
FSM   30  22  36  33 /  20  10  40  40
MLC   28  22  36  33 /  50  20  40  40
BVO   25  17  31  28 /  20  10  80  60
FYV   25  18  32  32 /  20  10  50  50
BYV   23  17  33  30 /  20  10  50  50
MKO   28  21  34  32 /  20  10  50  40
MIO   26  17  33  30 /  20  10  80  70
F10   27  21  34  32 /  30  20  50  40
HHW   30  23  36  35 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18