Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221724
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HI
PRES ALOFT DOMINATES. SRLY SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE
DAY...PICKING UP BY 16Z WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS FOR THE NE OK
SITES. THE WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF AGAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. A FEW LOCATIONS YESTERDAY OBSERVED HEAT INDICES OF 105+
DEGREES...AND WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PART OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX
THINGS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MIGHT HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES BEING
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY ON LOCATION AND TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS THE WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. USED A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR DETAILS...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE COOLER TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ060-
     OKZ061.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.